Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.</li><li>This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.</li><li>Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.</li></ul>

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.This draw marked the largest weekly drop in history and shows that the US demand for oil remains strong - this fits an (at least in the mid-term) improving economic momentum picture that we painted in our latest macro outlook.Meanwhile, the divergence between the price of crude (reversed line in red) and the inventory data (black line) remains quite large.

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul>
<li>Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align – see how we view the risk/reward in various proxy trades below!</li>
<li>Apparently with the spikes in volatility over the last couple of weeks we need to talk about natural gas in Europe again.</li>
<li>Various people have been harping about the Natural Gas markets in Europe, so let’s once and for all lay it out. Nooo, we are not going to run out of gas this winter.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align – see how we view the risk/reward in various proxy trades below!
Apparently with the spikes in volatility over the last couple of weeks we need to talk about natural gas in Europe again.
Various people have been harping about the Natural Gas markets in Europe, so let’s once and for all lay it out. Nooo, we are not going to run out of gas this winter.


The Energy Cable #31 – Crack Spreads and Positioning Support the Bull-Case!

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.</li>
<li>In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.</li>
<li>Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.</li>
</ul>


Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to provide input for our thought process and positioning ahead of the new month’s trading.
In early July we wrote that: “We remain a bit split on whether we will see a pronounced change of the Macro Regime from “down, down, down” (in liquidity, inflation and growth) to Goldilocks without QE with inflation down, liquidity down and growth slightly up.
Our portfolio will hence combine the best of the two regimes for the month of July.


Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

<ul><li>The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.</li><li>But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.</li><li>This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.</li></ul>

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost the country's ailing property sector.But it didn't give much detail or signal any major measures as some commodity traders had hoped.This uncertainty was also perfectly displayed in the price action of copper.

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

<ul>
<li>Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.</li>
<li>The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.</li>
<li>In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.</li>
</ul>


Welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found relevant throughout the week.
The central bank week is over, and what a week it has been with the quite shocking decision from BoJ yesterday, moving the YCC upper band from 0.5% to 1%, increasing the flexibility of their monetary policy since they effectively now have more room to play with, and they don’t have to buy as many bonds as they do now to keep yields under control – unless yields rise to &gt;1%.
In the West, the Fed and ECB delivered right as expected with a 25 bps hike each, despite inflation coming down FAST both in the US and EZ – it sure looks like they want to be sure that inflation gets down to target.


Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline

US Oil Inventories Log Biggest Ever Weekly Decline US weekly oil inventories (ex SPR) fell by over 17 million barrels, as last weeks EIA data showed.

The Commodity Report

The Energy Cable #31 – Crack Spreads and Positioning Support the Bull-Case!

Welcome to your weekly maverick energy newsletter with views from both sides of the pond! Steno Research and 3Fourteen models align

Steno Research

Macro Regime Indicator: PMIs to drive price action together with headline inflation

Every month, we assess the risk/reward in asset allocation via our Macro Regime Indicator framework, where we use our asset allocation model to...

Steno Research

Stocks Vs. Commodities Ratio // China Wants to Boost Its Property Sector (But How)

The Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, one of the country's top decision-making bodies, on Monday, released a statement outlining plans to boost...

The Commodity Report

Positioning Watch – The Market’s Response to Another Fed Hike

Happy Saturday, and welcome back to our weekly positioning article, where we as always take you through the positioning data that we have found...

Steno Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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