Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 15/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 0.5m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Gasoline stocks exceeded estimates, while distillates declined less than expected.
US natural gas inventories fell by 3 Bcf for the week ending 15/Nov, contrasting analyst expectations of a 2 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.4% above the 5-year seasonal average.
TD Cowen raised its PT on Exxon, while Morgan Stanely lowered its PT on Halliburton. Aramco and Sinopec began the construction of a refining and petrochemical complex in China.


[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Take aways: Norwegian maintenance season and no flows from Russia is a spicy mix. Temperature is the main factor for worries about stock levels 2022 mayhem may be closer than you think. Refiners’ capacity utilization weak causing fear of crude gluts</li><li>Fears in natural gas markets have returned as Ukrainian troops are giving Putin his own “Operation Citadel” moment.</li><li>While many European countries have sought alternatives to Russian gas, nations like Austria and Slovakia still depend on it.</li></ul>

Take aways: Norwegian maintenance season and no flows from Russia is a spicy mix. Temperature is the main factor for worries about stock levels 2022 mayhem may be closer than you think. Refiners’ capacity utilization weak causing fear of crude glutsFears in natural gas markets have returned as Ukrainian troops are giving Putin his own “Operation Citadel” moment.While many European countries have sought alternatives to Russian gas, nations like Austria and Slovakia still depend on it.

Energy Cable: How solid is the Nat Gas bull case here?

<ul>
<li>Hurricane Debby caused 300,000 electricity customers to lose power in Florida and Georgia, reducing electricity demand, which led to natural gas prices declining.</li>
<li>Since the 2006 shale boom, the share of US natural gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico has dropped from 15% to 1.8% by 2023.</li>
<li>The Gulf of Mexico area accounted for 14.4% of US crude oil production in 2023. Although still a significant share, it has declined from 25.4% in 2006. </li>
</ul>


Hurricane Debby caused 300,000 electricity customers to lose power in Florida and Georgia, reducing electricity demand, which led to natural gas prices declining.
Since the 2006 shale boom, the share of US natural gas production from the offshore Gulf of Mexico has dropped from 15% to 1.8% by 2023.
The Gulf of Mexico area accounted for 14.4% of US crude oil production in 2023. Although still a significant share, it has declined from 25.4% in 2006. 


Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends, Commodities Focus

Commodities Focus

Podcast by S&P analysing commodity market trends

S&P Global Commodity Insights analysis of key news and pricing issues from across the global shipping, natural gas, power, petrochemicals, agriculture, and coal markets.

<ul><li>Power demand in the gas market is at record highs, potentially leading to price spikes</li><li>Data center demand growth in PJM's transcozone five market could pose a risk for gas supply</li><li>Despite adequate reserve margins, heat waves can lead to price spikes and potential supply constraints in the gas market</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Power demand in the gas market is at record highs, potentially leading to price spikesData center demand growth in PJM's transcozone five market could pose a risk for gas supplyDespite adequate reserve margins, heat waves can lead to price spikes and potential supply constraints in the gas marketThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

<ul>
<li>The EIA expects US natural gas production to fall by 1% in 2024 and lifted LNG price forecast for Henry Hub benchmark by 13% for the year.</li>
<li>OPEC's 2024 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25m bpd. But IEA lowered its projection to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.</li>
<li>Russia, Iraq, &amp; Kazakhstan continued to oversupply despite lowering production MoM in May.</li>
</ul>


The EIA expects US natural gas production to fall by 1% in 2024 and lifted LNG price forecast for Henry Hub benchmark by 13% for the year.
OPEC's 2024 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25m bpd. But IEA lowered its projection to 960k bpd from 1.1m bpd.
Russia, Iraq, &amp; Kazakhstan continued to oversupply despite lowering production MoM in May.


Nat Gas Prices to Fire Up on Rising Demand, Weak Production, and Shaky Geopolitics

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: How solid is the Nat Gas bull case here?

Take aways: Norwegian maintenance season and no flows from Russia is a spicy mixTemperature is the main factor for worries about stock levels 2022...

Steno Research

Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Hurricane Debby impacted natural gas prices by reducing electricity demand. The Gulf of Mexico now accounts for less than 2% of US nat-gas output,...

Mint Finance

Hot Gas Summer for a Hot Power Market

Potential price risks in gas markets and power demand due to data center growth, coal retirements, and electrification efforts pose a risk for...

Commodities Focus

Nat Gas Prices to Fire Up on Rising Demand, Weak Production, and Shaky Geopolitics

OPEC stocks to demand growth forecast, EIA goes bullish but IEA lowers projections. Aviation and petchem drive near-term oil demand. US crude...

Mint Finance

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

[ETP 2024/47] WTI Rises on Ukraine-Russia Tensions; Henry Hub Jumps on Cold Weather Forecasts

​US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...

Mint Finance

Energy Cable: How solid is the Nat Gas bull case here?

Take aways: Norwegian maintenance season and no flows from Russia is a spicy mixTemperature is the main factor for worries about stock levels 2022...

Steno Research

Hurricanes More Likely to Disrupt Crude Supply and Lower Demand for Natural Gas

Hurricane Debby impacted natural gas prices by reducing electricity demand. The Gulf of Mexico now accounts for less than 2% of US nat-gas output,...

Mint Finance

Hot Gas Summer for a Hot Power Market

Potential price risks in gas markets and power demand due to data center growth, coal retirements, and electrification efforts pose a risk for...

Commodities Focus

Nat Gas Prices to Fire Up on Rising Demand, Weak Production, and Shaky Geopolitics

OPEC stocks to demand growth forecast, EIA goes bullish but IEA lowers projections. Aviation and petchem drive near-term oil demand. US crude...

Mint Finance

US crude and gasoline inventories increased more than expected. Exxon's PT increased while Halliburton's was lowered. Aramco and Sinopec started...