Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks.</li><li>Good news for gas markets in Europe.</li><li>We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East.</li></ul>

Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more during the next weeks.Good news for gas markets in Europe.We start this week by honing in on reports from the Houthis that they intend to close all three waterways in the Middle East.

Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea</li><li>This week saw another increase in container freight rate.</li><li>Seasonality working against higher freight rates. <em><span style="font-weight: 400;">That changes by April. </span></em></li></ul>

Takeaways: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red SeaThis week saw another increase in container freight rate.Seasonality working against higher freight rates. That changes by April. 

Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?

<ul><li>Takeaways: Price increases in goods likely to show up in Europe after the Summer</li><li>Watch out for energy prices once we start to fill up for next heating season</li><li>The recent turmoil in freight rates will likely exacerbate the divergence between US and the Eurozone</li></ul>

Takeaways: Price increases in goods likely to show up in Europe after the SummerWatch out for energy prices once we start to fill up for next heating seasonThe recent turmoil in freight rates will likely exacerbate the divergence between US and the Eurozone

Energy Cable: 4 Charts that Should Keep Largarde up at Night

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

Crude Palm Oil Active Contract / Commodities

<ul><li>Conditions in the Energy Industry Continue To Worsen The quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted that business uncertainty is worsening again.</li><li>It seems like the past two quarterly reports were only outliers - the trend remains worsening business conditions for gas and oil companies.</li><li>The conflict in the Red Sea started to impact shipping rates. But as we wrote over the past couple of weeks, it is not substantially higher</li></ul>

Conditions in the Energy Industry Continue To Worsen The quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted that business uncertainty is worsening again.It seems like the past two quarterly reports were only outliers - the trend remains worsening business conditions for gas and oil companies.The conflict in the Red Sea started to impact shipping rates. But as we wrote over the past couple of weeks, it is not substantially higher

Another Textbook Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact Trade Incoming?

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Agri | Weather | Energy Transition

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.</li>
<li>Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.</li>
<li>Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.</li>
</ul>


Panama Canal and Suez Canal are critical corridors underpinning global trade. &gt;50% of containers from Asia into America cross either through Panama or Suez.
Affected by El Niño, Panama Canal's capacity has shrunk to 25/day crossings &amp; risks falling to 18/day by February next year from an average of 36/day given shrinking water levels.
Given Europe’s higher sensitivity to geopolitics, European Natural Gas &amp; Crude Oil prices have reacted more wildly and have jumped sharply relative to US Gas and Oil prices.


War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Energy Cable: The Suez Troubles are WORSENING

Greetings from Copenhagen where temperatures have crawled back above 0 celsius and according to forecasts the weather seems to improve even more...

Steno Research

Suez and EIA Watch – Demand / Supply Getting Out of Balance?

Takeaway: Energy freight rates still not reacting to troubles in the Red Sea, with this week seeing another increase in container freight rate.

Steno Research

Energy Cable: 4 Charts that Should Keep Largarde up at Night

Takeaways: Price increases in goods likely to show up in Europe after the Summer. Watch out for energy prices once we start to fill up for next...

Steno Research

Another Textbook Buy the Rumor Sell the Fact Trade Incoming?

Conditions in the Energy Industry Continue To Worsen The quarterly Dallas Fed Energy Survey highlighted that business uncertainty is worsening again.

The Commodity Report

War and Weather Choking Supply Chains and Risks Spooking Inflation

Conflicts are intensifying in the Red Sea. US and UK launched about 70 airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Houthis vows to respond and asserts...

Mint Finance

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