Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

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Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wrote last week.</li><li>Even more the institute forecasts that El Nino may completely dissipate by June.</li><li>For our clients, that won’t come as a surprise as we highlighted this scenario over a couple of weeks.</li></ul>

"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of Meteorology wrote last week.Even more the institute forecasts that El Nino may completely dissipate by June.For our clients, that won’t come as a surprise as we highlighted this scenario over a couple of weeks.

Goodbye El Nino - Hello again La Nina // The case for Bitcoin

<ul><li>In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.</li><li>Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.</li><li>By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. </li></ul>

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months after.Historically, industrial metals tend to lag energy by several months.By contrast, prices of precious metals, especially gold, generally rise six months after the first rate cut then hit a temporary plateau —something we saw even during the extremes of the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic. 

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

<ul><li>USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.</li><li>That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.</li><li>Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.</li></ul>

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.Florida, which has previously accounted for more than 80% of the annual U.S. orange crop, is seen producing an 87-year low of 16.1 million boxes, down 61% on the year.

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Founder

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon.</li>
<li>That one of course is Famine. Such speculation has been fuelled by the co-ordinated attempts coming out of Davos last week to blame Russia for an upcoming food shortage.</li>
<li>While the threat of serious shortages, if not outright Famine, is very real indeed, it is only peripherally due to a the current lack of Wheat shipments out of Ukraine</li>
</ul>


The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the Third of the Four Horseman of the Apocalypse is due soon.
That one of course is Famine. Such speculation has been fuelled by the co-ordinated attempts coming out of Davos last week to blame Russia for an upcoming food shortage.
While the threat of serious shortages, if not outright Famine, is very real indeed, it is only peripherally due to a the current lack of Wheat shipments out of Ukraine


<ul><li>Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.</li><li>Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.</li><li>“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.</li></ul>

Latest CTA-Flow Forecast CTA positioning and UBS' flow model indicate slightly bullish momentum for some agriculture commodities as well as energy and on the flip side bearish momentum for precious metals and industrial metals.Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our market setups.“In currencies, the US dollar gained renewed momentum from Trump’s win, with the 1.7% rise in the DXY index on 6 November the largest one-day advance in two years.

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

United States

Natural gas is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting primarily of methane, but commonly including varying amounts of other higher alkanes, and sometimes a small percentage of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, hydrogen sulfide, or helium. It is formed when layers of decomposing plant and animal matter are exposed to intense heat and pressure supplied by existing under the surface of the Earth over millions of years. The energy that the plants originally obtained from the sun is stored in the form of chemical bonds in the gas.

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Natural Gas (NATURAL GAS COMDTY)

Goodbye El Nino - Hello again La Nina // The case for Bitcoin

"El Nino has peaked and is declining, indicating a return to neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024 (March-June)," the Australian Bureau of...

The Commodity Report

How Commodities Perform Around First Rate Cut

In a soft-landing economic environment, history suggests that commodity indexes stay stable around the first rate cut then trend higher six months...

The Commodity Report

Soft commodities dominate 2023 - US orange crop falls to 86-year low

USDA on Tuesday pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes (2.57 million tonnes), an 86-year low and down 23% on the year.

The Commodity Report

The Third Horseman

The arrival of War so soon after Pestilence or Plague has unsurprisingly led many to speculate (some idly, others determinedly) as to whether the...

Mark Tinker

Hershey’s Warns About Cocoa Inflation // Latest CTA-Flow Forecast

Particularly we would like to highlight the expected bullish flows in cotton and bearish flows in the flesh markets, which align with some of our...

The Commodity Report

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