Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

This Week in a nutshell... INDICES - In the current correction, 20500 Nikkei, 2600 S&amp;P are the levels/supports to watch for an intermediate reaction, else further direct drop to trend pivots (20000 Nikkei, and 2515/2460 S&amp;P) - ASX reacted off the trend pivot at 5570. Further bounce is expected. - Whilst HSI and HSCEI still under pressure below 26000/26200 and 10400/10500 respectively. - TW SE and Kospi confirmed further drop. FIXED INCOMEMixed bag. Intermediate rebound/limited upside. 119.14/119.16 even 120.05 on TNote10, 97.54 AGB10, 151.20 JGB. FOREX - Bearish USD vs DXY, CHF, Commos and EM Asia. Watch for surpassing of 1.1450 resistance on EURUSD to confirm a new rise. - JPY mixed bag.

This Week in a nutshell... INDICES - In the current correction, 20500 Nikkei, 2600 S&amp;P are the levels/supports to watch for an intermediate reaction, else further direct drop to trend pivots (20000 Nikkei, and 2515/2460 S&amp;P) - ASX reacted off the trend pivot at 5570. Further bounce is expected. - Whilst HSI and HSCEI still under pressure below 26000/26200 and 10400/10500 respectively. - TW SE and Kospi confirmed further drop. FIXED INCOMEMixed bag. Intermediate rebound/limited upside. 119.14/119.16 even 120.05 on TNote10, 97.54 AGB10, 151.20 JGB. FOREX - Bearish USD vs DXY, CHF, Commos and EM Asia. Watch for surpassing of 1.1450 resistance on EURUSD to confirm a new rise. - JPY mixed bag.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom.  In today's report we recap our U.S. equity investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups within Services and Utilities: SV-16 Waste Services, Small-Cap, and UT-06 Electric, Midwest.

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom.  In today's report we recap our U.S. equity investment thesis and highlight attractive Groups within Services and Utilities: SV-16 Waste Services, Small-Cap, and UT-06 Electric, Midwest.

U.S. Equity Update - Cautious Outlook, Downgrading Manufacturing

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

SOX relative cycle spearheaded our NDX peak call at 7,700 and the SPX peak call at 2,960/47 stemming from bearish breadth signals. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/us-tech-ndx-topping-signals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:23713">US Tech/NDX Topping Signals</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/path-to-s-p-2-960-part-ii-leadership-fading-into-september-weakness" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:22830">Path to S&amp;P 2,960 Part II - Leadership Fading into September Weakness</a>SMH (Semiconductor ETF) short trade is near/at support that opens the way for a Q4 tactical recovery trade but a weaker cycle is in store for 2019.SOX weakness in 2019 will create a challenging environment for linked Asian tech. Negative macro chart breaks label the recent high a high degree macro cycle peak.Recovery and fresh decline targets are outlined in what we expect to be a very challenging 2019.

SOX relative cycle spearheaded our NDX peak call at 7,700 and the SPX peak call at 2,960/47 stemming from bearish breadth signals. US Tech/NDX Topping SignalsPath to S&amp;P 2,960 Part II - Leadership Fading into September WeaknessSMH (Semiconductor ETF) short trade is near/at support that opens the way for a Q4 tactical recovery trade but a weaker cycle is in store for 2019.SOX weakness in 2019 will create a challenging environment for linked Asian tech. Negative macro chart breaks label the recent high a high degree macro cycle peak.Recovery and fresh decline targets are outlined in what we expect to be a very challenging 2019.

Semiconductor Cycle Concerns in 2019 to Weigh on Global Tech

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for breakdowns was not far off. In today’s report we assess the damage and highlight key support levels.  We also highlight attractive Groups  and stocks within the Materials, Utilities, and Consumer Staples Sectors.

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from <a href="mailto:jo@mtsresearch.com" target="_blank">joanne@mtsresearch.com</a>.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

Serious.  It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review.  The previous two weeks' were headed Trend termination pattern in the US? and Another critical juncture, respectively and all three are available on request from joanne@mtsresearch.com.  This is my first post since 2nd July, because previous analysis did not attract a great deal of interest, possibly because, as Technical Analysis goes, it is quite "technical"!  And it was less obvious that we were on the verge of a bear market.  However, if we get a decent response to this offer, I will start posting here again.In any event, a belated thank you to all of you who did take an interest.

United States

The NASDAQ-100 Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index of the 100 largest and most active non-financial domestic and international issues listed on the NASDAQ. No security can have more than a 24% weighting. The index was developed with a base value of 125 as of February 1, 1985. Prior to December 21,1998 the Nasdaq 100 was a cap-weighted index.

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index (NDX INDEX)

BBSP - Tactical Cross Asset Weekly Paper

This Week in a nutshell...INDICES- In the current correction, 20500 Nikkei, 2600 S&P are the levels/supports to watch for an intermediate...

BBSP Asia

U.S. Equity Update - Cautious Outlook, Downgrading Manufacturing

We remain extremely cautious and expect consolidation, volatility, and lower prices to continue as the market searches for a bottom. In today's...

Vermilion Research

Semiconductor Cycle Concerns in 2019 to Weigh on Global Tech

SOX relative cycle spearheaded our NDX peak call at 7,700 and the SPX peak call at 2,960/47 stemming from bearish breadth signals. US Tech/NDX...

Thomas Schroeder

Key Support Levels Being Tested for U.S. Indexes

With major indexes testing support last week, we highlighted that while we expect to see indexes firm up based on YTD trends, the potential for...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: How Serious Is This Sell-Off?

Serious. It could easily mark the beginning of a bear market.So I have posted below Friday's commentary from Global Markets Review. The previous...

Peter Beuttell