New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Napier Port’s (NPH) third quarter volumes showed further evidence of constrained activity in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle.</li><li>Management also refers to “unexpected weather and swell events during June had restricted shipping and softened volumes further”.</li><li>We currently assume FY23 EBITDA of NZ$36.5m (-9% against the prior year), below market consensus at NZ$38.3m.</li></ul>

Napier Port’s (NPH) third quarter volumes showed further evidence of constrained activity in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle.Management also refers to “unexpected weather and swell events during June had restricted shipping and softened volumes further”.We currently assume FY23 EBITDA of NZ$36.5m (-9% against the prior year), below market consensus at NZ$38.3m.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div id="m_7505193840733105993iubdj-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2"><ul><li>The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.</li><li>The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.</li><li>In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. </li></ul></div>

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are evident.The latter most notably on global air and sea freight lanes, where activity is up against a destocking impacted prior year.In contrast, the pricing environment is generally favourable for freight, but headwinds persist for passenger transport. 

<ul><li>Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.</li><li>The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.</li><li>Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. </li></ul>

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years.The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight, congested supply chains, and ripples sent across the broader freight sector.Just as these trends began to normalise, global economic conditions started to deteriorate, leading to supply chain destocking, and weaker passenger and freight end demand. 

<ul><li>For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.</li><li>This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.</li><li>We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. </li></ul>

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down.This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year interest rate assumption; our proxy for the risk free rate.We also incorporate our C&amp;ESG ratings into our WACC assumptions. We do this on an overall neutral basis, with a scale of -25 bps to +25 bps added to the cost of equity. 

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

<ul><li>A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.</li><li>Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.</li><li>The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. </li></ul>

A deteriorating economic backdrop is impacting demand for freight and passengers.Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption.The latter has softened demand across different transport modes. 

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Napier Port (NPH): Softer 3Q23 Volumes

Napier Port’s (NPH) third quarter volumes showed further evidence of constrained activity in the aftermath of Cyclone Gabrielle; Management also...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Freight Expectations

The volume backdrop across the wider transport sector is generally challenged by a weak demand environment, though pockets of positive activity are...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - A Second Wave

Mega trends have been dictating transport sector performance over the last few years. The pandemic saw international travel halt overnight,...

Forsyth Barr

Equity Strategy - WACC Review; a Lower Rfr and Adding C&ESG

For the first time in three years we are moving our WACC assumptions down. This is driven by a modestly lower (-25 bps) interpolated 10-year...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends - Where's the Freight, Mate?

Imports into New Zealand have slumped over 2023 as supply chain destocking has compounded slowing domestic consumption. The latter has softened...

Forsyth Barr

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