New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.</li><li>First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.</li><li>Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.</li><li>Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.</li><li>NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating leverage.Management continues to expect FY25 EBITDA to be at the top of its full-year guidance range of NZ$59m–NZ$63m, implying a flat 4Q25 versus the prior year.NPH continues to trade at a wide discount to POT on both a one year forward EV/EBITDA and PE basis, the quantum of which we believe is unjustified.

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong 1H25 result and is on track to deliver its 2021 investor-day profit objective in FY25, despite material setbacks over the past few years.</li><li>Pricing has been the most important driver, with further impressive gains evident in 1H25 across all trades, although trade volumes are mixed.</li><li>With scope for sustained earnings growth over the medium term, Forsyth Barr retains an OUTPERFORM rating on Napier Port.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong 1H25 result and is on track to deliver its 2021 investor-day profit objective in FY25, despite material setbacks over the past few years.Pricing has been the most important driver, with further impressive gains evident in 1H25 across all trades, although trade volumes are mixed.With scope for sustained earnings growth over the medium term, Forsyth Barr retains an OUTPERFORM rating on Napier Port.

Napier Port 1H25—Pricing Power at the Fore

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) said it is tracking towards the top end of its FY25 EBITDA guidance range at its 2025 investor day.</li><li>It also reiterated its return on capital goal (WACC type level over the medium to long term).</li><li>Management has outlined a well thought through port productivity initiative (Napier Port Transformation) which should yield benefits from FY28, after an upfront investment, enhancing longer-term returns. </li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) said it is tracking towards the top end of its FY25 EBITDA guidance range at its 2025 investor day.It also reiterated its return on capital goal (WACC type level over the medium to long term).Management has outlined a well thought through port productivity initiative (Napier Port Transformation) which should yield benefits from FY28, after an upfront investment, enhancing longer-term returns. 

Napier Port - Steering a Transformative Voyage

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.</li><li>2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.</li><li>Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.</li></ul>

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.2026 is shaping up as a year of recovery. Profitability should collectively improve across all modes, as any excess capacity is partially filled by improving demand, pricing behaviour remains rational, and cost control measures will likely linger late into the up-cycle.Our preferred cyclical recovery exposure is OUTPERFORM rated Mainfreight (MFT), given earnings growth support from its Australian and European operations.

New Zealand

Napier Port Holdings Limited provides shipping services. The Company offers transportation for cargo and passenger. Napier Port Holdings serves customers in New Zealand.

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Napier Port (NPH NZ)

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port Running a Tight Ship

Napier Port (NPH) reported a robust 3Q25 result, with strong earnings growth driven by pricing gains, effective cost management, and operating...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port 1H25—Pricing Power at the Fore

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong 1H25 result and is on track to deliver its 2021 investor-day profit objective in FY25, despite material...

Forsyth Barr

Napier Port - Steering a Transformative Voyage

Napier Port (NPH) said it is tracking towards the top end of its FY25 EBITDA guidance range at its 2025 investor day. It also reiterated its return...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends Getting Into Gear

Christmas cheer is in the air as transport markets are finally showing signs of life, particularly those reliant on New Zealand end-demand.

Forsyth Barr

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