Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 </li>
<li>Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages</li>
<li>If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating</li>
</ul>


Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely trigger mainstream memory shortages by EOY 2024 
Both Nanya and Winbond are well positioned to benefit from any industry-wide shortages
If Samsung can sort out its HBM woes, it will be line for a re-rating


Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.</li>
<li>Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.</li>
<li>Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.</li>
</ul>


Computex showed how Micron has successfully leap-frogged SK Hynix and Samsung in HBM DRAM for AI Servers.
Now, older 'boring' DRAM prices could surge as HBM DRAM production is voraciously consuming memory fab capacity.
Why Nanya Tech shares could surge higher -- A DRAM memory trade for those who don't want to chase steep 52-week highs in Micron and SK Hynix.


Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

<ul>
<li>HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025</li>
<li>Micron expects to become FCF positive in the second half of their fiscal 2024 and to have a record revenue year in their fiscal 2025. </li>
<li>Micron's is doing custom work on their HBM solutions. Customers are signing LTAs with defined pricing. This could easily spread to Micron's non-HBM products also. </li>
</ul>


HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025
Micron expects to become FCF positive in the second half of their fiscal 2024 and to have a record revenue year in their fiscal 2025. 
Micron's is doing custom work on their HBM solutions. Customers are signing LTAs with defined pricing. This could easily spread to Micron's non-HBM products also. 


Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

<ul>
<li>We hosted a conference call recently with ChipMOS management; the company continues to view 1Q24 as having been the bottom for the memory and display markets.</li>
<li>Memory customers are increasing utilization further. Since ChipMOS does not significantly serve the HBM DRAM market, this indicates that previously softer non-HBM memory segments are now showing improvement.</li>
<li>Display industry increasing utilization on expectation for 2H24 large display demand strength driven by sporting events such as the Paris Olympics. ChipMOS remains well below March highs, rate as Outperform.</li>
</ul>


We hosted a conference call recently with ChipMOS management; the company continues to view 1Q24 as having been the bottom for the memory and display markets.
Memory customers are increasing utilization further. Since ChipMOS does not significantly serve the HBM DRAM market, this indicates that previously softer non-HBM memory segments are now showing improvement.
Display industry increasing utilization on expectation for 2H24 large display demand strength driven by sporting events such as the Paris Olympics. ChipMOS remains well below March highs, rate as Outperform.


TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

<ul>
<li>Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY</li>
<li>ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment</li>
<li>First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..</li>
</ul>


Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY
ASP increases, HBM, NAND for enterprise SSD and looming shortages for legacy products are all mounting tailwinds for the beleaguered memory segment
First quarter ASP increases for DRAM &amp; NAND for Micron, SK Hynix &amp; Samsung were almost identical. That's quite a coincidence..


Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

Micron's HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025, making it a record revenue year for the...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Management sees 1Q24 as the bottom for memory and display markets, with clients increasing utilization. Expectation for stronger large display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY. Q124 ASP increases for Micron,...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

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Samsung, Nanya, Winbond. Watch This Space...

Greatly reduced growth-related WFE CapEx, cannibalisation of legacy node WFE for leading edge transitions and surging demand for HBM will likely...

William Keating

Memory Monitor: Computex Showed Micron Leapfrog SK Hynix and Samsung; 'Boring' DRAM Could Now Hot Up

​Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron's HBM. Multiple Billions Incoming..

Micron's HBM revenue on track to jump from a few hundred million in 2024 to "multiple" billions in 2025, making it a record revenue year for the...

William Keating

TechChain Insights: Call with ChipMOS, Memory and Display Markets Color

Management sees 1Q24 as the bottom for memory and display markets, with clients increasing utilization. Expectation for stronger large display...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Semiconductor Memory. Profits Return & Tailwinds Mount On Surging (& Very Similar) ASP Increases

Q124 DRAM revenue $18.2 billion, up 6% QoQ and up 88% YoY. NAND revenue $14.1 billion, up 23.4% QoQ and 68.8% YoY. Q124 ASP increases for Micron,...

William Keating

Micron's HBM DRAM shined alongside Nvidia at Computex. But now the HBM DRAM craze could drive a surge in traditional DRAM prices. Nanya Tech would...