Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades. </li>
<li>However, we are beginning to see green shoots of recovery from the likes of Foxconn, Asus and Nanya</li>
<li>We predict semi sales will trough in Q2 2023 and begin a gradual recovery through H2 2023</li>
</ul>


February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two decades. 
However, we are beginning to see green shoots of recovery from the likes of Foxconn, Asus and Nanya
We predict semi sales will trough in Q2 2023 and begin a gradual recovery through H2 2023


Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 31st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Walsin Lihwa, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Powerchip Semico, Alchip Tech, Nan Ya Printed, Unimicron Tech.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 31st which has an aggregated short interest worth USD12.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Walsin Lihwa, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Powerchip Semico, Alchip Tech, Nan Ya Printed, Unimicron Tech.


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 31st): Walsin Lihwa, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Powerchip

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron reported a very weak set of results, implying weak results to come for Memory peers such as Nanya Technology.</li>
<li>Micron however said it sees signs of customer inventories improving, and expects the Memory over-supply imbalance to improve through the end of calendar 2023.</li>
<li>We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology. While there are signs of improvement coming for industry supply/demand, we believe Micron is in a relatively stronger position.</li>
</ul>


Micron reported a very weak set of results, implying weak results to come for Memory peers such as Nanya Technology.
Micron however said it sees signs of customer inventories improving, and expects the Memory over-supply imbalance to improve through the end of calendar 2023.
We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology. While there are signs of improvement coming for industry supply/demand, we believe Micron is in a relatively stronger position.


Micron Results: Take-Aways for Memory, PC Industry Outlook; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

<ul>
<li>On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down </li>
<li>Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers</li>
<li>Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter</li>
</ul>


On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down 
Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers
Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter


Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.</li>
<li>The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.</li>
<li>Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.</li>
</ul>


Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.
The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

Taiwan

Nanya Technology Corp. manufactures and markets dynamic random access memories (DRAMs).  The Company sells its products in Taiwan and exports worldwide.

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Nanya Technology (2408 TT)

Global Semiconductor Sales Fall 4% MoM, 20.7% YoY In February 2023

February 2023 effectively marked the 13th consecutive month of declining semi sales making it one of the most protracted downturns of the past two...

William Keating

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Mar 31st): Walsin Lihwa, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine, Powerchip

We analyzed TWSE short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Walsin Lihwa, Evergreen Marine, Yang Ming Marine,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Micron Results: Take-Aways for Memory, PC Industry Outlook; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Micron said it sees signs of customer inventories improving, and expects the Memory industry's supply/demand imbalance to improve through the end...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down. A further...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space. We remain biased to be Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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