Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>LS Materials IPO price has been determined at 6,000 won per share, which is higher than the high end of the IPO price range (5,500 won). </li>
<li>A total 2,025 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 396.8 to 1. The IPO offering amount is 87.8 billion won. </li>
<li>We believe that its share price is likely to trade higher than the high end of our valuation range (7,953 won per share) post IPO. </li>
</ul>


LS Materials IPO price has been determined at 6,000 won per share, which is higher than the high end of the IPO price range (5,500 won). 
A total 2,025 institutional investors participated in this IPO book building. The demand ratio was 396.8 to 1. The IPO offering amount is 87.8 billion won. 
We believe that its share price is likely to trade higher than the high end of our valuation range (7,953 won per share) post IPO. 


LS Materials IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of LS Materials IPO is target price of 6,628 won per share, which is 21% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.</li>
<li>We estimate LS Materials to generate sales of 155.5 billion won (down 4% YoY) and 197.2 billion won (up 26.8% YoY) in 2024. </li>
<li>LS Materials is one of the largest players globally in the large-size ultracapacitors, which stabilize power supply and are used to replace and supplement primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of LS Materials IPO is target price of 6,628 won per share, which is 21% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
We estimate LS Materials to generate sales of 155.5 billion won (down 4% YoY) and 197.2 billion won (up 26.8% YoY) in 2024. 
LS Materials is one of the largest players globally in the large-size ultracapacitors, which stabilize power supply and are used to replace and supplement primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries.


<ul>
<li>LS Materials is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in late November. The IPO price range is from 4,400 won to 5,500 won per share. </li>
<li>According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is from 298 billion won to 372 billion won. </li>
<li>LS Materials is one of the largest players globally in the large-size ultracapacitors, which stabilize power supply and are used to replace and supplement primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries.</li>
</ul>


LS Materials is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in late November. The IPO price range is from 4,400 won to 5,500 won per share. 
According to the bankers' valuation, the expected market cap after the IPO is from 298 billion won to 372 billion won. 
LS Materials is one of the largest players globally in the large-size ultracapacitors, which stabilize power supply and are used to replace and supplement primary batteries and lithium-ion batteries.


Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

What would be a real-world passive money size tracking KOSPI 200?My latest estimation is ₩80 trillion, and here is a breakdown of my estimation.ETFsWe currently have 17 local ETFs mirroring KOSPI 200, including KODEX 200 (₩5.5T) and TIGER 200 (₩2.3T). Their combined market value amounts to ₩16.5T.







Local ETFs directly mirroring KOSPI 200
Ticker
Market cap as of today (June 1, 2021)


YURIE TREX 200 ETF
108590
₩13.0B


Kiwoom KOSEF200 Total Return ETF
294400
₩493.3B


Kyobo AXA Power K200 ETF
152870
₩28.6B


Samsung KODEX 200 Total Return ETF
278530
₩1,470.5B


Mirae Asset TIGER Leverage ETF
123320
₩32.1B


KIM KINDEX Leverage ETF
152500
₩11.1B


HANWHA Arirang 200 ETF
152100
₩853.6B


Samsung KODEX 200 ETF
069500
₩5,446.8B


Kiwoom KOSEF200 ETF
069660
₩542.8B


Mirae Asset TIGER200 ETF
102110
₩2,283.6B


KIM KINDEX 200 ETF
105190
₩751.7B


Samsung KODEX Leverage Derivatives ETF
122630
₩1,722.2B


KB KBSTAR 200 Securities ETF
148020
₩1,168.8B


NH-Amundi HANARO 200 ETF
293180
₩655.5B


NH-Amundi HANARO 200TR ETF
332930
₩222.4B


KIM KINDEX 200TotalReturn ETF
332500
₩340.5B


Shinhan SMART 200 Total Return ETF
295040
₩449.9B


- Total
-
₩16,486.4B

Source: KRX

Index funds39 local index funds are currently tracking KOSPI 200, including the Kyobo AXA Power Index with an AUM of ₩1.3T. Their combined AUM totals ₩3.7T.






Local Index funds directly mirroring KOSPI 200
Assets under management as of today (June 1, 2021)


Kiwoom New Frontier Index Plus αF- 1 [Equity-Derivative] A1
₩17.5B


Kiwoom e-Alpha Index 1 [Equity]
₩11.0B


Kiwoom Korea Index 1 [Equity] C-e
₩28.1B


Kiwoom Korea Happy Pension Index 1 [Equity]
₩16.6B


Korea Investment Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] (A)
₩28.4B


BNKK200 Index (Equity-Derivative) ClassA
₩25.4B


KB Star Power Index Korea [Equity-Derivative] C-E
₩18.3B


Hungkuk Index Alpha [Equity-Derivative] C-f
₩17.9B


Daishin Index Value [Equity] ClassC-F
₩130.5B


Mirae Asset Market Plus [Equity] Type F
₩11.8B


Consus Moebius 1 200 Index (Equity-Derivative) Class C
₩11.0B


IBKKOSPI200 Index 1 [Equity] Type A
₩39.8B


Truston Index Alpha s [Equity-Derivative] C
₩14.5B


Hyundai KOSPI 200 Index Type C-f
₩10.2B


DGB Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] A
₩27.6B


Woori KOSPI200 Index 1 (Equity-Derivative) ClassC-e
₩49.1B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 2 [Equity] ClassA1
₩22.5B


East Spring Korea Index [Equity] Class C-F
₩207.0B


Mirae KOSPI 200 Index 1 [Equity] Type C-e
₩164.0B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 1 [Equity] Class A 1
₩332.0B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 3 [Equity] ClassA
₩12.6B


Daishin KOSPI200 Index [Equity-Derivative] ClassC1
₩64.1B


Kyobo AXA Power Index 1 (Equity-Derivative) ClassA
₩1,277.0B


DB Index Haeohreum Alpha [Equity-Derivative] ClassA
₩15.5B


Hana UBS Umbrella New Index K- 1 [Equity-Derivative] ClassC
₩12.9B


Samsung Retirement Pension Index 1 [Equity] C
₩138.7B


Korea Investment &amp; Cruise F2.8 Index [Equity] (A)
₩14.1B


KB Index Annuity [Equity] C
₩20.6B


Samsung Index Alpha 1 [Equity-Derivative] (A)
₩18.6B


Samsung Pension Korea Index [Equity-Derivative]
₩34.6B


Samsung Classic Index Pensions 1 [Equity] _C
₩180.6B


KB Star Korea Index [Equity] C-E class
₩88.8B


Samsung Premium Index A [Equity-Derivative]
₩74.2B


Hanwha Smart ++ Index [Equity] C / C2β
₩240.4B


Feynman Index Premium 2 [Equity-Derivative]
₩18.8B


Samsung Index Plus 1 [Equity-Derivative] (C 1)
₩49.7B


KB Star Korea Index [Equity-Derivative] C
₩54.1B


NH-Amundi Premier Index [Equity-Derivative] ClassA
₩26.7B


Hyundai Investment Index 1 Alpha [Equity-Derivative] C-I
₩135.5B


- Total
₩3,660.7B

Source: KG Zeroin

National Pension Service (NPS)Now, we need to add NPS. In 2019, the internal (direct) management accounted for 54.15% of the domestic equity, whereas the external (consignment) management was responsible for 45.85%. Only the internal management operates passive funds, which accounted for 33.75% of the total domestic equity.The total domestic equity at March-end of this year was ₩178.7T. Assuming the same 33.75% weight for the passive in the domestic equity churns out ₩60.3T for the local passive funds within the NPS. An assumed 70% of this ₩60.3T would be ₩42.2T, supposedly tracking KOSPI 200. 70% should be a conservative assumption as their BM index for domestic equity is KOSPI.









NPS asset allocation
FY2019, amount
FY2019, weight
FY2021 March, amount
Directly mirroring KOSPI 200 at an assumed 70% of the total passive funds


Internal (direct) management
₩71,612.1B





- Active
₩26,976.9B
20.40%




- Passive
₩44,635.2B
33.75%
₩60,301.4B
₩42,211.0B


External (consignment) management
₩60,641.9B





- Active
₩60,641.9B
45.85%




- Passive
₩0.0B
0.00%




Total domestic Equity
₩132,254.0B

₩178,673.0B


Source: NPS

Variable insurance index fundsLastly, we have variable insurance index funds. A vast majority of the local variable insurance index funds are tracking KOSPI 200. I don't have the latest figure, but the FY2019 year-end data (compiled by YONHAP INFOMAX) shows that the combined AUM of these funds amounted to about ₩17~18T.Given the relatively flat yearly growth among the local insurance companies, I don't expect to see a substantial change in the combined AUM last year. So, ₩18T would be a safe estimate.Adding all four spits out ₩80.4T, supposedly total local passive money mirroring KOSPI 200 at this point.
₩80T estimation breakdown

ETFs
₩16.5T


Index funds
₩3.7T


National Pension Service - Passive
₩42.2T


Variable Insurance Index funds
₩18.0T


 - Total
₩80.4T

Source: KG Zeroin, KRX, NPS, &amp; YONHAP INFOMAX


Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

<p>The KRX has announced the list of inclusions and exclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> today. The rebalance is effective after the close of trading on 10 June.</p><p>There are 5 inclusions and 7 exclusions at the June 2021 review. If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-ie-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29207:1" rel="noopener">SK IE Technology (361610 KS)</a> meets the criteria for index Fast Entry, then <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdc-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7699:1" rel="noopener">HDC Holdings (012630 KS)</a> will be deleted and the announcement will be made on 2 June.</p><p>So, there could be a total of 6 inclusions and 8 exclusions at the review with a one-way turnover of 0.77%.</p><p>The inclusions and exclusions are:</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 222pt;"><h3>Inclusions</h3></td>
<td colspan="2" style="text-align: center; width: 273pt;"><h3>Exclusions</h3></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td><strong>Code</strong></td>
<td><strong>Name</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>302440.KS</td>
<td>SK Bioscience Co Ltd</td>
<td>005180.KS</td>
<td>Binggrae Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>006040.KS</td>
<td>Dongwon Industries Co Ltd</td>
<td>005610.KS</td>
<td>SPC Samlip Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>298050.KS</td>
<td>Hyosung Advanced Materials Corp</td>
<td>006390.KS</td>
<td>Hanil Hyundai Cement Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>298020.KS</td>
<td>Hyosung TNC Corp</td>
<td>008350.KS</td>
<td>Namsun Aluminium Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><em><strong>361610.KS</strong></em></td>
<td><em><strong>SK IE Technology Co Ltd</strong></em></td>
<td>009410.KS</td>
<td>Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>001440.KS</td>
<td>Taihan Electric Wire Co Ltd</td>
<td>018250.KS</td>
<td>Aekyung Industrial Co Ltd</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>145990.KS</td>
<td>Samyang Corp</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td><em><strong>012630.KS</strong></em></td>
<td><em><strong>HDC Holdings Co Ltd</strong></em></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>There are 12 trading days to implementation of the changes and there are a lot of deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to trade. The impact on the inclusions is smaller but there will be a lot of active funds looking to buy the stocks so they don't deviate too much from their benchmark.</p><p>With short selling limited to the constituents of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a>, shorting the inclusions will be tough while selling/shorting the deletions is a lot easier since they are current index constituents. The inclusions could outperform the deletions till a couple of days before implementation date, while there could be a high risk/reward reverse trade if the outperformance is significant.</p>

The KRX has announced the list of inclusions and exclusions to the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) today. The rebalance is effective after the close of trading on 10 June.There are 5 inclusions and 7 exclusions at the June 2021 review. If SK IE Technology (361610 KS) meets the criteria for index Fast Entry, then HDC Holdings (012630 KS) will be deleted and the announcement will be made on 2 June.So, there could be a total of 6 inclusions and 8 exclusions at the review with a one-way turnover of 0.77%.The inclusions and exclusions are:








Inclusions
Exclusions


Code
Name
Code
Name


302440.KS
SK Bioscience Co Ltd
005180.KS
Binggrae Co Ltd


006040.KS
Dongwon Industries Co Ltd
005610.KS
SPC Samlip Co Ltd


298050.KS
Hyosung Advanced Materials Corp
006390.KS
Hanil Hyundai Cement Co Ltd


298020.KS
Hyosung TNC Corp
008350.KS
Namsun Aluminium Co Ltd


361610.KS
SK IE Technology Co Ltd
009410.KS
Taeyoung Engineering &amp; Construction Co Ltd


001440.KS
Taihan Electric Wire Co Ltd
018250.KS
Aekyung Industrial Co Ltd




145990.KS
Samyang Corp




012630.KS
HDC Holdings Co Ltd


There are 12 trading days to implementation of the changes and there are a lot of deletions that have over 1 day of ADV to trade. The impact on the inclusions is smaller but there will be a lot of active funds looking to buy the stocks so they don't deviate too much from their benchmark.With short selling limited to the constituents of the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX), shorting the inclusions will be tough while selling/shorting the deletions is a lot easier since they are current index constituents. The inclusions could outperform the deletions till a couple of days before implementation date, while there could be a high risk/reward reverse trade if the outperformance is significant.

South Korea

Namsun Aluminum Co., Ltd. manufactures aluminum products, such as aluminum sash and circlet.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Namsun Aluminum (008350 KS)

LS Materials IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

LS Materials reported excellent bookbuilding results. We believe that its share price is likely to trade higher than the high end of our valuation...

Douglas Kim

LS Materials IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of LS Materials IPO is 6,628 won per share, 21% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. LS Materials is one of the...

Douglas Kim

LS Materials IPO Preview

LS Materials, a major player in large-size ultracapacitors, is set to complete its IPO in Korea with an expected market cap of 298 billion won to...

Douglas Kim

Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

This post provides a detailed breakdown of how I arrive at an estimated ₩80 trillion for the passive money tracking KOSPI 200.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Spot On!

There are 5 adds and 7 deletes for the KOSPI200 (as we forecast). There could be another add/delete if SK IE Tech gets index Fast Entry. Inclusions...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LS Materials IPO Bookbuilding Results Analysis

LS Materials reported excellent bookbuilding results. We believe that its share price is likely to trade higher than the high end of our valuation...

Douglas Kim

LS Materials IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of LS Materials IPO is 6,628 won per share, 21% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. LS Materials is one of the...

Douglas Kim

LS Materials IPO Preview

​LS Materials, a major player in large-size ultracapacitors, is set to complete its IPO in Korea with an expected market cap of 298 billion won to...

Douglas Kim

Why I Estimate Total Local Passive Money Tracking KOSPI 200 at ₩80T? Here Is a Breakdown

This post provides a detailed breakdown of how I arrive at an estimated ₩80 trillion for the passive money tracking KOSPI 200.

Sanghyun Park

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Spot On!

There are 5 adds and 7 deletes for the KOSPI200 (as we forecast). There could be another add/delete if SK IE Tech gets index Fast Entry. Inclusions...

Brian Freitas

LS Materials, a major player in large-size ultracapacitors, is set to complete its IPO in Korea with an expected market cap of 298 billion won to...