Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L / Event-Driven

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of its periodic review. The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.There are 3 changes to the index with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keyence-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1" rel="noopener">Keyence Corp (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a>.While the inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nintendo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5415:1" rel="noopener">Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP)</a> and the deletion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sky-perfect-jsat-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14097:1" rel="noopener">Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP)</a> was expected, the other names are relative surprises.The impact on the inclusions is not very high in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of the real float to buy, but the impact on the deletions is a lot higher. The selling on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nisshinbo-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10561:1" rel="noopener">Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-seikan-group-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11858:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP)</a> will result in around 18% of the free float of the stock being sold and the stocks could drop a lot before investors start to get involved.This is the first review post the market consultation that was announced in May and the conclusions of which were published in July.As usual, Nikkei have ignored the sector balance that is spoken about so much in the index methodology. Apparently its easier to write the index methodology than to follow it!

Nikkei has just announced the changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of its periodic review. The changes will be made prior to the open of the market on 1 October, so passive funds will trade at the closing auction on 30 September.There are 3 changes to the index with Keyence Corp (6861 JP), Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) and Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) replacing Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP), Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) and Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP).While the inclusion of Nintendo Co Ltd (7974 JP) and the deletion of Sky Perfect Jsat (9412 JP) was expected, the other names are relative surprises.The impact on the inclusions is not very high in terms of days of ADV to buy and in terms of the real float to buy, but the impact on the deletions is a lot higher. The selling on Nisshinbo Holdings (3105 JP) and Toyo Seikan Group Holdings L (5901 JP) will result in around 18% of the free float of the stock being sold and the stocks could drop a lot before investors start to get involved.This is the first review post the market consultation that was announced in May and the conclusions of which were published in July.As usual, Nikkei have ignored the sector balance that is spoken about so much in the index methodology. Apparently its easier to write the index methodology than to follow it!

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Late last evening, Nikkei published an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/NTT-to-take-over-wireless-unit-Docomo-for-38bn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> was looking to take full control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> in a deal that could be worth around  ¥4 trillion (US$38bn) based on a 30% premium to the last close.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> is trading 2.4% lower today while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> is still untraded on a glut of buy orders. The ADR closed 30% higher overnight.A second order effect of the buyout is that it would open up a slot in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> that would need to be filled. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a> belongs to the Technology sector and the replacement will most likely be a stock from the same sector.We see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sharp-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:391:1" rel="noopener">Sharp Corp (6753 JP)</a> as the most likely candidates to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-docomo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1" rel="noopener">NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP)</a>. There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rohm-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2953:1" rel="noopener">ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anritsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3700:1" rel="noopener">Anritsu Corp (6754 JP)</a> being included in the index.

Late last evening, Nikkei published an article that NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) was looking to take full control of NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) in a deal that could be worth around  ¥4 trillion (US$38bn) based on a 30% premium to the last close.NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) is trading 2.4% lower today while NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) is still untraded on a glut of buy orders. The ADR closed 30% higher overnight.A second order effect of the buyout is that it would open up a slot in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) that would need to be filled. NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP) belongs to the Technology sector and the replacement will most likely be a stock from the same sector.We see Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) and Sharp Corp (6753 JP) as the most likely candidates to replace NTT Docomo Inc (9437 JP). There is a lower probability of ROHM Co Ltd (6963 JP) or Anritsu Corp (6754 JP) being included in the index.

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Likely Candidates to Replace NTT Docomo

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-yuden-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9924:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)</a>’s 1Q FY03/21 was weak but surpassed market expectations on OP significantly. 1Q revenue and OP declined by 11.9% YoY and  17% YoY respectively. Sales fell below consensus estimates by 3% and our estimate by 10%. However, OP exceeded consensus by 108% and our estimate by 14%. Taiyo also managed to surpass its 1Q FY03/21 guidance. As expected COVID-19 impact in Malaysia and the Philippines affected the company’s 1Q results.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/651/original/image_56216613341597032376925.png?1597032377" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151651"></figure>Source: Company Disclosures, CapIQ, LSR<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/151/652/original/image_1465125651597032387868.png?1597032391" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="151652"></figure>Source: Company DisclosuresThe company’s 1H FY03/21E guidance looks achievable with 46% of revenue and 53% of the OP target already achieved in 1Q. However the slowdown in consumer and auto demand is likely to affect the company through this FY, That being said, we believe that the company’s increasing focus on auto’s and IT infrastructure than smartphones, is like to give Taiyo a more stable business that is not affected by seasonal demand (smartphones) over the long term. For the short term, however, 5G deployment and recovery in the Auto sector are key growth drivers.The company’s share price did not take a significant hit during March 2020 similar to its peers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK Corp (6762 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a>. Also, the share price rebounded quite quickly to reach near pre-COVID 19 levels. The company is currently trading at 14.5x FY2 PE, marginally below its historical average and at a discount to peers. Though <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a> Murata is likely to retain leadership in the MLCC sector, we feel Taiyo has higher potential for growth. Therefore, we recommend owning Taiyo for its long term prospects.We go through the details below.

Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)’s 1Q FY03/21 was weak but surpassed market expectations on OP significantly. 1Q revenue and OP declined by 11.9% YoY and  17% YoY respectively. Sales fell below consensus estimates by 3% and our estimate by 10%. However, OP exceeded consensus by 108% and our estimate by 14%. Taiyo also managed to surpass its 1Q FY03/21 guidance. As expected COVID-19 impact in Malaysia and the Philippines affected the company’s 1Q results.Source: Company Disclosures, CapIQ, LSRSource: Company DisclosuresThe company’s 1H FY03/21E guidance looks achievable with 46% of revenue and 53% of the OP target already achieved in 1Q. However the slowdown in consumer and auto demand is likely to affect the company through this FY, That being said, we believe that the company’s increasing focus on auto’s and IT infrastructure than smartphones, is like to give Taiyo a more stable business that is not affected by seasonal demand (smartphones) over the long term. For the short term, however, 5G deployment and recovery in the Auto sector are key growth drivers.The company’s share price did not take a significant hit during March 2020 similar to its peers TDK Corp (6762 JP) and Kyocera Corp (6971 JP). Also, the share price rebounded quite quickly to reach near pre-COVID 19 levels. The company is currently trading at 14.5x FY2 PE, marginally below its historical average and at a discount to peers. Though Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP) Murata is likely to retain leadership in the MLCC sector, we feel Taiyo has higher potential for growth. Therefore, we recommend owning Taiyo for its long term prospects.We go through the details below.

Taiyo’s OP Outperforms Consensus Amidst COVID-19

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/murata-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11649:1" rel="noopener">Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)</a>’s 1Q FY03/21 was weak but better than expected. 1Q revenue declined by 8.6% YoY and operating profits declined by 18% YoY. However, sales and OP beat consensus estimates by +1% and 30% respectively and our estimates by nearly 3% and 8% respectively.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/166/original/image_39261655421596444097611.png?1596444098" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150166"></figure>Source: Company Disclosures, CapIQ, LSRDecline in revenue was mainly due to the decline in demand for smartphone and automotive electronics post-COVID-19. As expected, the delay in 5G and Apple’s delay in 5G smartphone launch has had its effect on Murata during the quarter. However, on the brighter side demand for 5G base stations has been strong with Telco providers continuing the development of 5G alongside the rising demand for computers during COVID-19 lockdowns.The OP decline was mainly due to the decline in average sales prices following the pandemic. Despite the decline, Murata still outperformed market expectations and maintained an  OPM of 15.7%, compared to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK Corp (6762 JP)'</a>s (6.0%) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)</a>’s (2.4%).<div class="content-caption">Murata Outperforms; Peers Disappoint</div><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/150/167/original/image_76919538531596444146301.png?1596444148" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="150167"></figure>The company’s share price increased around 9% since we last wrote about the company and it is currently trading at 19.5x FY2 PE, marginally above the historical average. We are hopeful, Murata will continue to outperform peers over the medium-term, however, the current valuation makes Murata’s risk-reward relatively unattractive.We go through the details below.

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)’s 1Q FY03/21 was weak but better than expected. 1Q revenue declined by 8.6% YoY and operating profits declined by 18% YoY. However, sales and OP beat consensus estimates by +1% and 30% respectively and our estimates by nearly 3% and 8% respectively.Source: Company Disclosures, CapIQ, LSRDecline in revenue was mainly due to the decline in demand for smartphone and automotive electronics post-COVID-19. As expected, the delay in 5G and Apple’s delay in 5G smartphone launch has had its effect on Murata during the quarter. However, on the brighter side demand for 5G base stations has been strong with Telco providers continuing the development of 5G alongside the rising demand for computers during COVID-19 lockdowns.The OP decline was mainly due to the decline in average sales prices following the pandemic. Despite the decline, Murata still outperformed market expectations and maintained an  OPM of 15.7%, compared to TDK Corp (6762 JP)'s (6.0%) and Kyocera Corp (6971 JP)’s (2.4%).Murata Outperforms; Peers DisappointThe company’s share price increased around 9% since we last wrote about the company and it is currently trading at 19.5x FY2 PE, marginally above the historical average. We are hopeful, Murata will continue to outperform peers over the medium-term, however, the current valuation makes Murata’s risk-reward relatively unattractive.We go through the details below.

Murata Outperforms Despite a Weak 1QFY03/21

Japan

Kyocera Corporation manufacturers electronic equipment and components. The Company's products include telecommunication equipment, information equipment, optical equipment, ceramic products, semiconductor parts, chips, hybrid integrated circuits, thermal printheads, image sensors, liquid crystal displays, and connectors. Kyocera operates worldwide.

TDK CORPORATION manufactures electronics components such as magnetic tapes and ferrite cores.  The Company also sells power supplies, inductors, transformers, ceramic capacitors, magnets, LAN (Local Area Network) components, sensors, and semiconductors.  TDK markets its products worldwide.

Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells electronic modules and components. The Company produces communication modules, power supply modules, multilayer ceramic capacitors, noise countermeasure components, timing devices, sensor devices, high frequency components, batteries, and other products. Murata Manufacturing markets its products across worldwide.

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets servomotors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots.  The Company's products include spindle controllers, computerized numerical control (CNC) systems, and system engineering.

YOKOGAWA ELECTRIC CORPORATION develops, manufactures, and markets information technology (IT) solutions, measuring and control equipment, semiconductors, and electronic components.  The Company's products include IT controllers, flowmeters, pressure transmitters, analyzers, data recorder, switching power supplies, and AC (alternating current) adaptors.

OMRON Corporation manufactures electronic components, equipment and systems used for factory automation. The Company provides products and services in a variety of fields including industrial automation, electronic components, automotive electronics, social systems such as ticket gate machines and traffic control, and healthcare.

IBIDEN CO, LTD. develops, produces, and markets ceramics, housing materials, and electronics.  The Company's products include printed circuit boards (PCB), graphite specialties, integrated circuit (IC) packages, ceramic fibers, melamine decorative high-pressure laminates, and pre-cut structural materials.

Shimadzu Corporation is a precision tools and equipment maker.  The Company develops, manufactures, and sells analytical and measuring instruments, medical systems, and  aircraft and industrial equipment.  Shimadzu researches, develops, and markets the products through its related companies in Japan, the US, the UK, and China.

YASKAWA Electric Corporation manufactures and markets motors, controllers, inverters, and industrial robots. The Company's products is split into 4 segments such as motion control, robotics, system engineering, and information technology.

Azbil Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets total automation equipment used in industrial and commercial buildings. The Company's products include sensors, switches, recording meters, security systems, air conditioners, pressure transmitters, and flow meters.

Samsung SDI Co., Ltd. specializes in developing Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) technology.  The Company also manufactures cathode ray tubes (CRTs) for televisions and computer monitors.  Samsung SDI also produces liquid crystal display (LCD) components and rechargeable batteries for cellular phones , personal digital assistants (PDAs), Energy Storage Systems and solar panels.

Keysight Technologies, Inc. offers electronic measurement services using wireless, modular, and software solutions.

CDW Corporation of Delaware provides information technology products and services. The Company offers hardware, software, computer peripherals, cloud computing, mobile devices, network communication, and security solutions. CDW serves business, government, education, and healthcare customers throughout North America.

NAURA Technology Group Co., Ltd. is an integrated high-tech company, which manufactures electronics equipments and components, including IC equipments, hybrid integrated circuits and combines with R&D, sales, and services.

Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd develops, manufactures and sells video surveillance products.  The Company manufactures video and audio compression card, network hard disk video recorders, video servers, cameras, network storage, and other digital products.

Largan Precision Company Limited manufactures and markets optical lens modules and optoelectronic components. The Company offers lenses for liquid crystal display (LCD) projectors, scanners, optical mice, digital still cameras (DSCs), digital versatile discs (DVDs), light emitting diodes (LEDs), and photography mobile phones.

Coherent Corp. designs engineered materials and optoelectronic components. The Company offers products to industrial, optical communications, military, life sciences, semiconductor equipment, and consumer markets. Coherent also manufactures semiconductor lasers and optics for high power industrial lasers, optical communications systems, datacenter connectivity, and 3D sensing.

Zebra Technologies Corporation designs and manufactures enterprise mobile computers, advanced data capture devices, such as laser, 2D and RFID scanners and readers, and specialty printers for barcode labeling and personal identification. The Company also produces WLAN products, real-time location systems, related supplies and application software.

Trimble Navigation Ltd is a leading provider of advanced location-based solutions that maximize productivity and enhance profitability. The Company integrates its positioning expertise in GPS, laser, optical and inertial technologies with application software, wireless communications, and services to provide complete commercial solutions.

Delta Electronics Inc. manufactures power supplies and video display products. The Company's products include switching power supplies, telecom power systems, uninterrupted power supply (UPS), variable speed alternating current (AC) monitor drives, high resolution color monitors, and projectors.  Delta also manufactures magnetic and networking components.

MURATA MANUFACTURING COMPANY, LTD. manufactures and sells ceramic applied electronic components.  The Company's products include filters, capacitors, thermistors, resistors, noise suppression components, coils, piezoelectric sound components, power supplies, sensors, hybrid integrated circuit (IC), and microwave components.

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Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Nintendo, Keyence, Murata IN; Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan, SKY Perfect OUT

Nintendo, Murata & Keyence are into the Nikkei225 while Nisshinbo, Toyo Seikan & Sky Perfect are out. This trade will be more about the deletes...

Brian Freitas

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Likely Candidates to Replace NTT Docomo

Late last evening, Nikkei published an article

Brian Freitas

Taiyo’s OP Outperforms Consensus Amidst COVID-19

Taiyo Yuden (6976 JP)’s 1Q FY03/21 was weak but surpassed market expectations on OP significantly. 1Q revenue and OP declined by 11.9% YoY and 17%...

Aqila Ali

Murata Outperforms Despite a Weak 1QFY03/21

Murata Manufacturing (6981 JP)’s 1Q FY03/21 was weak but better than expected. 1Q revenue declined by 8.6% YoY and operating profits declined by...

Aqila Ali

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