External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capex</li><li>Q4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segment</li><li>Reported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segment</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Bharat Petroleum Corporation: Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated debt, owing to a rise in working capital requirement and capexQ4FY23 EBITDA stood at INR 112bn, while APAT was at INR 65bn, coming in well above our estimates, supported by a better-than-expected performance from the marketing segmentReported GRMs were at USD 20.6/bbl (+USD 5.3/bbl YoY, +USD 4.7/bbl QoQ, HSIE: USD 19.8/bbl). Gail (India): Our BUY recommendation on GAIL with a target price of INR 125 is based on (1) an increase in gas transmission volume to 123mmscmd by FY25 on the back of an increase in domestic gas production, (2) completion of major pipelines in eastern and southern India, and (3) expectation of improvement in earnings from the petchem segmentContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Equity Bottom-Up

Multi Commodity Exchange India / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MCX growth has been driven by a surge in options volume but uncertainty around the technology shift timeline remains the key overhang</li><li>Options ADTV has increased ~2.7x YoY and is currently &gt;INR 500bn (~2.4x of futures)</li><li>The first phase of growth in options was led by a surge in traded UCCs and higher volatility in energy contracts (~85% of volume), while the next phase will be driven by bullion and the launch of new contracts (mini and index options)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MCX growth has been driven by a surge in options volume but uncertainty around the technology shift timeline remains the key overhangOptions ADTV has increased ~2.7x YoY and is currently &gt;INR 500bn (~2.4x of futures)The first phase of growth in options was led by a surge in traded UCCs and higher volatility in energy contracts (~85% of volume), while the next phase will be driven by bullion and the launch of new contracts (mini and index options)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Multi Commodity Exchange: Options Drive, Tech Drags. Maintain BUY

Multi Commodity Exchange - Options Drive, Tech Drags. Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Exchanges: MCX revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation due to lower premium collection)</li><li>Higher payout to tech vendor will impact EBITDA margin (~9.4%, down 1,345bps QoQ)</li><li>The tech transition remains the key overhang, MCX has been conducting mock trading sessions and the current transition timeline stands at 30 June 2023</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges: MCX revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation due to lower premium collection)Higher payout to tech vendor will impact EBITDA margin (~9.4%, down 1,345bps QoQ)The tech transition remains the key overhang, MCX has been conducting mock trading sessions and the current transition timeline stands at 30 June 2023Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet - Soft Landing

<ul><li>Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)</li><li>We continue to like DALBHARA for its robust volume and margin outlook</li><li>Dalmia reported strong volume growth (+12/9% YoY/QoQ) and healthy unit EBITDA recovery (+INR 300/365/MT YoY/QoQ) to solid INR 1,021 per MT, driven by both realisation firm-up and cost reduction</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)We continue to like DALBHARA for its robust volume and margin outlookDalmia reported strong volume growth (+12/9% YoY/QoQ) and healthy unit EBITDA recovery (+INR 300/365/MT YoY/QoQ) to solid INR 1,021 per MT, driven by both realisation firm-up and cost reductionContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Sundaram Finance, Apollo Tyres

India

Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited is an independent and de-mutualized exchange.  The Exchange has permanent recognition from the Government of India for facilitating online trading, clearing, and settlement operations for commodity futures markets across the country.

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Multi Commodity Exchange India (MCX IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Gail (India), Vinati Organics

Our ADD rating on Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), with a target price of INR 390, is premised on robust refining and marketing margins, offset by elevated...

HDFC Securities

Multi Commodity Exchange: Options Drive, Tech Drags. Maintain BUY

MCX growth has been driven by a surge in options volume but uncertainty around the technology shift timeline remains the key overhang

HDFC Securities

Multi Commodity Exchange - Options Drive, Tech Drags. Maintain BUY

MCX growth has been driven by a surge in options volume but uncertainty around the technology shift timeline remains the key overhang

HDFC Securities

Exchanges, Staffing and Internet - Soft Landing

MCX revenue is expected to decline by 6.8% QoQ, mainly due to a decline in futures volume and flat options revenue (a drop in effective realisation...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: Dalmia Bharat, Sundaram Finance, Apollo Tyres

Dalmia Bharat: We maintain our BUY rating on Dalmia Bharat (DALBHARA), with an unchanged TP of INR 2,440/sh (13x its Mar-25E consolidated EBITDA)

HDFC Securities

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