Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>The recent outbreak in Thailand may force the Thai government to initiate a nightlife entertainment ban and in-restaurant dining, two of the key critical avenues for alcoholic beverage sales for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> . Although it is still uncertain on the timing and duration, it is a big ask to keep the stock in the portfolio for the time being. </p>
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<p>With fewer revenue contributions from alcoholic beverages, the company's EBITDA can easily go down by 10-20% again although it is unclear when the Thai government will initiate the night entertainment and in-restaurant ban. <strong>Investors should take the profit and stay out of Thai Beverage stock until there is clarity. </strong></p>
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The recent outbreak in Thailand may force the Thai government to initiate a nightlife entertainment ban and in-restaurant dining, two of the key critical avenues for alcoholic beverage sales for Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) . Although it is still uncertain on the timing and duration, it is a big ask to keep the stock in the portfolio for the time being. 

With fewer revenue contributions from alcoholic beverages, the company's EBITDA can easily go down by 10-20% again although it is unclear when the Thai government will initiate the night entertainment and in-restaurant ban. Investors should take the profit and stay out of Thai Beverage stock until there is clarity. 


Thai Beverage (Thbev): Imminent Risk Ahead

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> booked some relatively resilient numbers for FY09/2020 with total revenues only down by -5.2% to THB253,481m, EBITDA up by +3.2%, with a net profit from normal operations up by +10.1% for FY09/2020. 4Q20 EBITDA increase by 31% YoY to Bt11.5bn. Sales of spirits grew by +19.2% QoQ in 4Q2020 versus 3Q2020 and beer sales grew by +22.8% QoQ. </p>
<p>The spirits business in 2020 was especially resilient, even with a temporary ban on alcohol sales in Thailand as part of lockdown measures.</p>
<p>The beer business was impacted by lockdowns to some extent but Vietnam was hit more than Thailand which registered flat sales. The recovery in the beer business will be the key to the 2020 recovery.</p>
<p>The company's non-alcoholic beverages division saw a decent turnaround but the food division continued to face pressure from declining sales due to restrictions on eating out but the environment is improving. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> reiterated that in March 2020 it had exercised an internal restructuring of its beer business to generate more value and business growth opportunities, as well as improving operating efficiencies. This points the way to a spin-off at a future date.</p>
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<p>The company stated that the financial position remains solid as of October 2020 but it has entered into a bridging loan to provide it with the financial flexibility to potentially refinance its existing bond due in March 2021.  This represents a short-term overhang until an alternative becomes clear and could lead to higher finance costs in 1Q2021. </p>
<p>Valuations look attractive with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> currently trading on 16.8x FY21E PER, in line with its historical average but it trades on an FY21E  EV/EBITDA of 12.4x, which looks cheap compared to its 3-year average forward EV/EBITDA and peer group comparisons.</p>
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Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) booked some relatively resilient numbers for FY09/2020 with total revenues only down by -5.2% to THB253,481m, EBITDA up by +3.2%, with a net profit from normal operations up by +10.1% for FY09/2020. 4Q20 EBITDA increase by 31% YoY to Bt11.5bn. Sales of spirits grew by +19.2% QoQ in 4Q2020 versus 3Q2020 and beer sales grew by +22.8% QoQ. 
The spirits business in 2020 was especially resilient, even with a temporary ban on alcohol sales in Thailand as part of lockdown measures.
The beer business was impacted by lockdowns to some extent but Vietnam was hit more than Thailand which registered flat sales. The recovery in the beer business will be the key to the 2020 recovery.
The company's non-alcoholic beverages division saw a decent turnaround but the food division continued to face pressure from declining sales due to restrictions on eating out but the environment is improving. 
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) reiterated that in March 2020 it had exercised an internal restructuring of its beer business to generate more value and business growth opportunities, as well as improving operating efficiencies. This points the way to a spin-off at a future date.

The company stated that the financial position remains solid as of October 2020 but it has entered into a bridging loan to provide it with the financial flexibility to potentially refinance its existing bond due in March 2021.  This represents a short-term overhang until an alternative becomes clear and could lead to higher finance costs in 1Q2021. 
Valuations look attractive with Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) currently trading on 16.8x FY21E PER, in line with its historical average but it trades on an FY21E  EV/EBITDA of 12.4x, which looks cheap compared to its 3-year average forward EV/EBITDA and peer group comparisons.







Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - A Beer Fuelled Future

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Lockdown, social distancing, and no public gathering have caused the alcohol beverage companies in ASEAN to be under enormous pressure to generate earnings, and some governments' plan to ban alcohol sales does not help to alleviate the burden either. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heineken-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12647:1" rel="noopener">Heineken Malaysia (HEIM MK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/carlsberg-brewery-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5389:1" rel="noopener">Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (CAB MK)</a> will continue to experience difficulty as the pandemic continues to spring up and the proposal to ban alcohol will also curb revenue growth.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/multi-bintang-indonesia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11651:1" rel="noopener">Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-djakarta-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5585:1" rel="noopener">Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ) </a>may face a similar fate with the Malaysian counterparts but the latter has an 11% dividend yield which may make appealing to some investors and it is also owned by the Jakarta Regional Government. The winner is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> as Thailand's pandemic is under control and they are about to receive an influx of Chinese tourists again. </p>

Lockdown, social distancing, and no public gathering have caused the alcohol beverage companies in ASEAN to be under enormous pressure to generate earnings, and some governments' plan to ban alcohol sales does not help to alleviate the burden either. 
Heineken Malaysia (HEIM MK) and Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (CAB MK) will continue to experience difficulty as the pandemic continues to spring up and the proposal to ban alcohol will also curb revenue growth.
Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) and Delta Djakarta (DLTA IJ) may face a similar fate with the Malaysian counterparts but the latter has an 11% dividend yield which may make appealing to some investors and it is also owned by the Jakarta Regional Government. The winner is Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) as Thailand's pandemic is under control and they are about to receive an influx of Chinese tourists again. 

CrossASEAN: Alcoholic Beverage - Where to Drink?

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a> is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-exchange-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1047:1" rel="noopener">SGX (SGX SP)</a> with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand. The Thai government has proposed to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021 and replace that with an app or token to trace their whereabouts during their holiday in Thailand. With the positive vaccine announcement, this initiative will be rolled out sooner rather than later and possibly be expanded for other countries too which means the number of tourists in Thailand will soon resume to the almost pre-COVID-19 level. </p>
<p>At 16x PER, 2.8x PBR, and 13.4 EV/EBITDA, Thai Beverage is trading at a  <strong>63% PER discount, 76% PBR discount, and 36% EV/EBITDA discount </strong>to the regional brewery peers<strong> and a 65% PER discount, 53% PBR discount, and 50% EV/EBITDA discount to the </strong>other Thai tourism-related stocks. </p>

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in SGX (SGX SP) with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand. The Thai government has proposed to exempt Chinese tourists from the required 14-day quarantine by 2021 and replace that with an app or token to trace their whereabouts during their holiday in Thailand. With the positive vaccine announcement, this initiative will be rolled out sooner rather than later and possibly be expanded for other countries too which means the number of tourists in Thailand will soon resume to the almost pre-COVID-19 level. 
At 16x PER, 2.8x PBR, and 13.4 EV/EBITDA, Thai Beverage is trading at a  63% PER discount, 76% PBR discount, and 36% EV/EBITDA discount to the regional brewery peers and a 65% PER discount, 53% PBR discount, and 50% EV/EBITDA discount to the other Thai tourism-related stocks. 

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thai-beverage-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3656:1" rel="noopener">Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)</a>'s strong start to the fiscal year ending September 2020 was confirmed by its 1QFY20 results which they released on 14<sup>th</sup> February 2020. The company’s revenue grew 4.2% YoY in 1QFY20 driven by growth in its domestic market. Also, Its EBITDA margin improved by 170bps compared to 1QFY20 through improvements across all its segments.</p>

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s strong start to the fiscal year ending September 2020 was confirmed by its 1QFY20 results which they released on 14th February 2020. The company’s revenue grew 4.2% YoY in 1QFY20 driven by growth in its domestic market. Also, Its EBITDA margin improved by 170bps compared to 1QFY20 through improvements across all its segments.

Thai Beverages: 1Q20 Results Beats Consensus as Home Demand Outweighed SABECO & GRG Underperformance

Indonesia

PT Multi Bintang Indonesia Tbk manufactures beer. The Company's main products include beer and stout.

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Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ)

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Imminent Risk Ahead

Less revenue from alcoholic drinks, EBITDA to go down again though unclear when the government will initiate the nightlife ban. Investors should...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) - A Beer Fuelled Future

Thai Beverage continues to be one of our top ASEAN recovery plays, with the potential for a spin-off of its beer business further down the line

Angus Mackintosh

CrossASEAN: Alcoholic Beverage - Where to Drink?

The pandemic has forced governments to implement lockdown/social distancing that has brought many difficulties for alcohol beverage companies in...

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverage (Thbev): Brewing for Reopening

Thai Beverage is uniquely positioned as a Thai company listed in Singapore with an exposure to the reopening of tourism in Thailand.

Henry Soediarko

Thai Beverages: 1Q20 Results Beats Consensus as Home Demand Outweighed SABECO & GRG Underperformance

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)'s strong start to the fiscal year ending September 2020 was confirmed by its 1QFY20 results which they released on 14th...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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