Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Prospects for global growth in 1Q2022 are clouded by a severely contagious Fourth Wave of Covid-19, reflected in a 56% week-on-week rise in new cases to 8.274mn this week. </li>
<li>Asia is less affected. With the exception of Vietnam, ASEAN too has contained the spread of Covid, after becoming the global epicentre in Aug-Sep2021. </li>
<li>With the US and EU the epicentres, regionally-focused movement restrictions will hurt domestic growth prospects in the OECD in 1Q 2022, although trade will likely continue to boom.  </li>
</ul>


Prospects for global growth in 1Q2022 are clouded by a severely contagious Fourth Wave of Covid-19, reflected in a 56% week-on-week rise in new cases to 8.274mn this week. 
Asia is less affected. With the exception of Vietnam, ASEAN too has contained the spread of Covid, after becoming the global epicentre in Aug-Sep2021. 
With the US and EU the epicentres, regionally-focused movement restrictions will hurt domestic growth prospects in the OECD in 1Q 2022, although trade will likely continue to boom.  


4th Global Covid Wave More Contagious but Less Deadly (& Asia Less Affected) So Far

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Volatility and stock market rollercoaster likely to return in 2022</li>
<li>Central Banks’ policies of low interest rates and an accelerated taper will destabilize financial markets</li>
<li>Expect a ‘Powell Put’ as policy-makers are forced to re-engage QE policies</li>
</ul>


Volatility and stock market rollercoaster likely to return in 2022
Central Banks’ policies of low interest rates and an accelerated taper will destabilize financial markets
Expect a ‘Powell Put’ as policy-makers are forced to re-engage QE policies


The Big Risks For 2022 .... Large Debts, Less Liquidity and Growing Indexation?

<ul>
<li>
 US Fed is ‘behind the curve’ on inflation: More importantly, the US Fed is ‘behind the crowd’ in tightening policy </li>
<li>World bond markets seem to believe there will be a sharp policy shock. We question whether the current US Fed has the fortitude to do this?</li>
<li>The 'likely' fudge will create volatility, but it should present another 'buy the dip' opportunity</li>
</ul>



 US Fed is ‘behind the curve’ on inflation: More importantly, the US Fed is ‘behind the crowd’ in tightening policy 
World bond markets seem to believe there will be a sharp policy shock. We question whether the current US Fed has the fortitude to do this?
The 'likely' fudge will create volatility, but it should present another 'buy the dip' opportunity


The US Fed Is ‘Behind The Crowd’ And Not Just Behind The Curve

<ul>
<li>Global Liquidity likely to hit US$176 trillion in 2022, or over 175% of World GDP </li>
<li>Smallest increase (+3% or US$5 trillion) since 2018. Central Bank balance sheets increase modestly to US$32.7 trillion as tapering bites</li>
<li>Faltering Liquidity will be a major headwind for risk assets in 2022</li>
</ul>


Global Liquidity likely to hit US$176 trillion in 2022, or over 175% of World GDP 
Smallest increase (+3% or US$5 trillion) since 2018. Central Bank balance sheets increase modestly to US$32.7 trillion as tapering bites
Faltering Liquidity will be a major headwind for risk assets in 2022


A Equity Sell-Off? Prospects For Global Liquidity in 2022

<ul>
<li>Re-configured US Fed is becoming more hawkish towards inflation</li>
<li>Bond market term structure warns of near-term economic troubles
</li>
<li>Expect a ‘catch up’ with faster QE taper by US Fed</li>
<li>Inflation is transitory but ‘sticky’. Disinflationary forces will ultimately reassert themselves</li>
</ul>


Re-configured US Fed is becoming more hawkish towards inflation
Bond market term structure warns of near-term economic troubles

Expect a ‘catch up’ with faster QE taper by US Fed
Inflation is transitory but ‘sticky’. Disinflationary forces will ultimately reassert themselves


Watch-Out For The Fed’s Big ‘Catch-Up’

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

4th Global Covid Wave More Contagious but Less Deadly (& Asia Less Affected) So Far

A near-doubling in daily global cases over the past week signals a severe Fourth Global Wave of Covid-19. OECD growth will be negatively affected...

Prasenjit K. Basu

The Big Risks For 2022 .... Large Debts, Less Liquidity and Growing Indexation?

Global Liquidity is slowing. This will heighten potential market volatility in 2022 and may ultimately force a bail-out by policy-makers. Investors...

Michael J. Howell

The US Fed Is ‘Behind The Crowd’ And Not Just Behind The Curve

Fed is serious 'behind the curve' on fighting inflation, but as worryingly it is also 'behind the crowd' in tightening liquidity. Expect a 'fudged'...

Michael J. Howell

A Equity Sell-Off? Prospects For Global Liquidity in 2022

This report details our estimates of Global Liquidity for 2022. Liquidity proved vital for markets in 2020 and 2021, but latest signals show it is...

Michael J. Howell

Watch-Out For The Fed’s Big ‘Catch-Up’

Inflation is a near-term political threat in the US and will trigger a more hawkish response from the US Fed. This will unsettle stock markets, but...

Michael J. Howell