Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.</li>
<li>But don’t count on it making much of a difference.</li>
<li>A bottoming in China may present some relief to relevant trade partners</li>
</ul>


EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.
But don’t count on it making much of a difference.
A bottoming in China may present some relief to relevant trade partners


EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? </li>
<li>It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.</li>
<li>The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.</li>
</ul>


Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? 
It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.
The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

<ul>
<li>This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. </li>
<li>This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. </li>
<li>We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI. </li>
</ul>


This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. 
This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. 
We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

<ul>
<li>August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.</li>
<li>September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.</li>
<li>September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.</li>
</ul>


August and September are the weakest for Equities relative to Treasuries. Staying out of equities during those months would have significantly improved the risk-return profile of a multi-asset portfolio.
September high yield returns are mediocre at best, underpinning that the equity component of the asset class is the return-determining factor most of the time.
September is the only month in which Bitcoin realized a negative return on average. Finally, Gold returns have been solid in September.


Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

<ul>
<li>China could become a ‘Credit Event.’ Despite a slew of new stimulus measures by the Chinese government, they are not comprehensive enough to rule out one or more credit events.</li>
<li>200-Day moving averages hit. Several equity market indices have dipped below their 200-day moving average, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. </li>
<li>Response to the latest US inflation figure. In contrast to previous favorable inflation figures, American stocks closed lower on the day following the publication.</li>
</ul>


China could become a ‘Credit Event.’ Despite a slew of new stimulus measures by the Chinese government, they are not comprehensive enough to rule out one or more credit events.
200-Day moving averages hit. Several equity market indices have dipped below their 200-day moving average, including the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. 
Response to the latest US inflation figure. In contrast to previous favorable inflation figures, American stocks closed lower on the day following the publication.


Back with a Bang! – Macro and Sentiment Call for an Underweight in Equities

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly

EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

Apple erasing USD 200 billion in market cap on marginally negative news confirms (US) Equities are priced for perfection.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

Wage growth vs. excess savings. Will the US labor market start to weaken and cause a recession? Grayscale vs. the SEC and what it means for Bitcoin.

Jeroen Blokland

Seasonality: September Is a Bad Month for ALL Risky Asset Classes

September returns for Equities, High Yield, Corporate Bonds, and Bitcoin tend to be weak, while Treasury and Gold returns are solid.

Jeroen Blokland

Back with a Bang! – Macro and Sentiment Call for an Underweight in Equities

We lower the weight of Emerging and Developed Market Equities on recent developments in China, indices dropping below their 200-day moving...

Jeroen Blokland