Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.</li>
<li>This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.</li>
<li>We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare</li>
</ul>


Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare


Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.</li>
<li>We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. </li>
<li>With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. </li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.
We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. 
With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.</li>
<li>But don’t count on it making much of a difference.</li>
<li>A bottoming in China may present some relief to relevant trade partners</li>
</ul>


EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.
But don’t count on it making much of a difference.
A bottoming in China may present some relief to relevant trade partners


EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly

<ul>
<li>Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? </li>
<li>It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.</li>
<li>The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.</li>
</ul>


Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? 
It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.
The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

<ul>
<li>This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. </li>
<li>This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. </li>
<li>We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI. </li>
</ul>


This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. 
This week, we look at the skewed US personal income and spending data, concluding that wage growth must take over quickly to keep spending afloat. 
We discuss the latest developments surrounding Bitcoin and a spot Bitcoin ETF. While approval odds steadily rise, low attention and trading volumes reveal that investors are preoccupied with AI. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Support levels on global indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) beginning to break as $DXY and 10-year Treasury yield $TNX break above $105.70 and...

Vermilion Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

One-and-a-half hawkish central bank pauses spooked equity investors, who are running out of narratives to keep stocks from falling.

Jeroen Blokland

EM by EM #22 The Good, the bad and the ugly

EM’s are desperate for a weaker USD and may see some brief yet necessary breathing room from the pending US Government Shutdown.

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

Apple erasing USD 200 billion in market cap on marginally negative news confirms (US) Equities are priced for perfection.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Spending Pressure, Labor Lull, and Bitcoin Fatigue

Wage growth vs. excess savings. Will the US labor market start to weaken and cause a recession? Grayscale vs. the SEC and what it means for Bitcoin.

Jeroen Blokland