Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels, presenting attractive entry points. We see little reason to abandon our bullish outlooks for both markets... see page 2• Overweight Materials Sector. We highlight actionable names within the materials sector as global miners continue to emerge from base patterns, most of which still yield attractive entry points, including Vale (VALE) and Rio Tinto (RIO-GB)... see pages 3-5• Opportunities in China. This week we highlight attractive set-ups in China.  Highlighted charts range from Baidu (BIDU) and Bank of China (3988-HK) to Fosun (656-HK) and China Southern Airlines (1055-HK)... see pages 6-8

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of opportunities in EM, Europe, and Japan.Emerging Markets: Breaking out to all-time highs, EM is unfolding as global leadership. Take advantage of pullbacks.Europe: Two words: pullback opportunity. For the past three months, Europe peeled back from the global advance, as prices diverged from bullish headlines. We view this as a welcomed event. Long-term technicals do confirm the improving headlines, but timing matters. And the STOXX 600’s test of the 200-day MA represents a timely entry point.  Just note, Europe is not a relative leader. That status belongs to EM (above).Japan: Japan represents an overlooked opportunity. With EM leading, and Europe crowding headlines, Japan is steadily emerging from a two-year base pattern, setting the stage for another leg higher

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of opportunities in EM, Europe, and Japan.Emerging Markets: Breaking out to all-time highs, EM is unfolding as global leadership. Take advantage of pullbacks.Europe: Two words: pullback opportunity. For the past three months, Europe peeled back from the global advance, as prices diverged from bullish headlines. We view this as a welcomed event. Long-term technicals do confirm the improving headlines, but timing matters. And the STOXX 600’s test of the 200-day MA represents a timely entry point.  Just note, Europe is not a relative leader. That status belongs to EM (above).Japan: Japan represents an overlooked opportunity. With EM leading, and Europe crowding headlines, Japan is steadily emerging from a two-year base pattern, setting the stage for another leg higher

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Pullback Opportunities in Europe, Japan Poised to Breakout

Notable themes:<ul><li>
Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary by tech. This sector accounts for a 26% weighting in the Index, and it is the only sector trading at 12-month relative strength highs. That’s the rear-view mirror take. What’s the technical outlook for tech? We remain overweight, keeping in mind the sector is ripe for a pause/correction (based on how far it is trading above its 200-day MA). Long-term…</li></ul>

Notable themes:
Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary by tech. This sector accounts for a 26% weighting in the Index, and it is the only sector trading at 12-month relative strength highs. That’s the rear-view mirror take. What’s the technical outlook for tech? We remain overweight, keeping in mind the sector is ripe for a pause/correction (based on how far it is trading above its 200-day MA). Long-term…

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe, European luxury/apparel, UK homebuilders, EM chemicals, Japanese chemicals, and Japanese tech stocks.

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ol><li>South Africa is experiencing a period of political and financial turmoil, with the dismissal of the respected former finance minister Gordhan followed by the credit downgrade to junk. Erratic moves on the currency and mixed economic data made it difficult for the Central Bank (SARB) to act with consistency and efficiency.</li><li>South African assets, often considered as EM benchmarks, are also dependent on external factors like the FED monetary policy and world demand for commodities.</li><li>South African assets are showing strong cross asset correlations and interesting relationships with global markets.</li></ol>

South Africa is experiencing a period of political and financial turmoil, with the dismissal of the respected former finance minister Gordhan followed by the credit downgrade to junk. Erratic moves on the currency and mixed economic data made it difficult for the Central Bank (SARB) to act with consistency and efficiency.South African assets, often considered as EM benchmarks, are also dependent on external factors like the FED monetary policy and world demand for commodities.South African assets are showing strong cross asset correlations and interesting relationships with global markets.

South Africa : A Cross Asset Overview of an EM Benchmark Country

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

EM Is Cementing Its Leadership Status; Buy Miners

• Pullback opportunities are prevalent in Europe and Japan. Both markets are testing key support levels,presenting attractive entry points. We see...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Overweight EM, Pullback Opportunities in Europe, Japan Poised to Breakout

In the attached strategy document we expand upon themes and opportunities in materials, technology and financials as well as an overview of...

Vermilion Research

EM Leadership Screen & Chart Book

Notable themes: Sector leadership is concentrated. The MSCI EM Index’s YTD advance, which is pushing through to all-time highs, is driven primary...

Vermilion Research

Int'l Compass: Overweight EM; Actionable Themes in Europe and Japan

Bullish technicals continue to support our call to overweight EM. We highlight actionable themes, as well as pullback opportunities in Europe,...

Vermilion Research

South Africa : A Cross Asset Overview of an EM Benchmark Country

South Africa is experiencing a period of political and financial turmoil, with the dismissal of the respected former finance minister Gordhan...

Guillaume Coutant