FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer.  The resumption of the rise in US yields in the last week appears related to a more persistent underlying trend.  It has been supported by a rise in commodity prices, but occurred despite weaker confidence in global growth and equity markets, suggesting it may be a more pervasive trend likely to influence other markets, rather than be influenced by them. The USD reaction to higher US yields has hardly been straightforward in the last year, but it did strengthen broadly in-line with higher yields in the last week.  This may reflect troubles in the tech sector and broader geopolitical uncertainty undermining EM markets. EM equities and currencies have underperformed developed markets in the last month.  Some easing in trade tensions over the weekend may help stabilise EM currencies and global equities.  However, concerns over the tech sector are starting to run deeper and may prevent their recovery.  If US yields rise significantly further, they may also cap equities more broadly, and undermine EM currencies, especially high yielders more susceptible to US yields.  USD/JPY may initially benefit from higher US yields, but equity performance may limit gains.  EUR has been able to shake off a more significant slowdown in Eurozone economy momentum to date, underpinned by capital flows from SEK, CHF and RUB, but these have likely peaked.

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still mixed, we continue to believe that further consolidation and volatility is the most likely scenario. In today’s report we provide an overview of global markets and highlight our top recommendations.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets remain leadership. While many of the world's developed markets in correction or consolidation mode, EM markets continue to remain immune to the disruption occurring elsewhere.  Price and relative strength uptrends intact remain, and we reiterate our overweight recommendation.  In today’s report we provide a collection of the better looking company charts across the emerging markets universe.

Emerging markets remain leadership. While many of the world's developed markets in correction or consolidation mode, EM markets continue to remain immune to the disruption occurring elsewhere.  Price and relative strength uptrends intact remain, and we reiterate our overweight recommendation.  In today’s report we provide a collection of the better looking company charts across the emerging markets universe.

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership.  In addition to sector and regional market comments, today’s report includes a wide variety of bottom-up recommendations, spanning most sectors and all market capitalizations.

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist, Emvest Partners

Guillaume Coutant

Emerging Markets Cross-Asset Strategist

Cross-Asset Emerging Markets Technical Research

Emvest Partners

Emvest Partners is the leading independent French financial analyst specializing in Emerging Markets for  Asset Managers, Hedge Funds and Family Offices. The studies provided by Emvest Partners are based on a top-down, cross-asset and relative-value approach of the financial markets. The articulation of macroeconomic analysis and technical analysis improves the consistency of the recommendations, the mitigation of risks of error and a significant improvement in performance.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Technical Analysis

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22900" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> index is evolving in a long term range since 2009, resistance at 15500.The bullish trend started in 2016 remains valid even after the sell off started in 2018, illustrated by the ascending trendlineMathematical indicators remain supportive with 144-day MA at 11785/11100, and daily RSI back on support area.Therefore, a new rise is expected above 11785/11100 towards previous highs at first (14000 – 16%) then 15500 (31,5%).In the meantime, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22899" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1">Hong Kong</a>…

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) index is evolving in a long term range since 2009, resistance at 15500.The bullish trend started in 2016 remains valid even after the sell off started in 2018, illustrated by the ascending trendlineMathematical indicators remain supportive with 144-day MA at 11785/11100, and daily RSI back on support area.Therefore, a new rise is expected above 11785/11100 towards previous highs at first (14000 – 16%) then 15500 (31,5%).In the meantime, Hong Kong…

Chinese Stocks : New Rise Expected on HSCEI Index

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

A Pervasive Rise in Yields May Propel Further USD Gains

We see the recent resurgence in US yields as potentially the most important driver in the coming week or longer. The resumption of the rise in US...

Greg Gibbs

Technical Appraisal of Global Markets

Corrective action is spreading throughout most major indexes, and many are currently testing critical support levels. With market internals still...

Vermilion Research

Attractive EM Charts

Emerging markets remain leadership. While many of the world's developed markets in correction or consolidation mode, EM markets continue to remain...

Vermilion Research

EM Equity Strategy: Overweight BRIC

Emerging markets continue to outperform developed international equities, and within EM, the BRIC country grouping remains leadership. In addition...

Vermilion Research

Chinese Stocks : New Rise Expected on HSCEI Index

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) index is evolving in a long term range since 2009, resistance at 15500.The bullish trend started in...

Guillaume Coutant