Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Today we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the broad market. Still, we continue to see a mixed market environment, but we remain constructive overall with the S&amp;P 500 holding above short-term support at the 50-day moving average and 4056.

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A new currency regime in Asia?</li>
<li>Wildly inaccurate media reports wrongly suggest large-scale capital outflows from EM</li>
<li>Rather EM enjoying best forex reserve growth for a decade</li>
<li>
De facto Asian Currency Unit, a ‘Euro-like’ policy, allowing monetization</li>
<li>Loose US fiscal and monetary policies are more likely to spill-over into EM</li>
</ul>


A new currency regime in Asia?
Wildly inaccurate media reports wrongly suggest large-scale capital outflows from EM
Rather EM enjoying best forex reserve growth for a decade

De facto Asian Currency Unit, a ‘Euro-like’ policy, allowing monetization
Loose US fiscal and monetary policies are more likely to spill-over into EM


Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight. We continue to attribute much of EM’s outperformance to the intact downtrend in the US dollar (DXY). As long as weakness in the DXY persists we believe EM’s outperformance is likely to continue.

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

<ul>
<li>There is no bubble in stock prices</li>
<li>P/Es are an inappropriate and misleading guide to assessing aggregate stock markets</li>
<li>Aggregate stock markets depend on liquidity and behavioral factors</li>
<li>
China and Emerging Markets have the most to gain from future equity investment</li>
</ul>


There is no bubble in stock prices
P/Es are an inappropriate and misleading guide to assessing aggregate stock markets
Aggregate stock markets depend on liquidity and behavioral factors

China and Emerging Markets have the most to gain from future equity investment


As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

As we highlighted in last week’s Int’l Compass, the weight of the evidence suggests commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials remains a favorite Sector overweight and we believe outperformance is likely to continue considering the Sector’s long-term bullish RS reversal. Additionally, we are upgrading equal-weighted Energy to overweight due to bullish price and RS inflections -- add exposure with a focus on small- and mid-caps.

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

China

The MSCI Em (Emerging Markets) Index is a free-float weighted equity index that captures large and mid cap representation across Emerging Markets (EM) countries. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF INDEX)

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

Asian cross-currency volatility is at its all-time low. A de facto Euro-like unit is forming. This could be hugely bullish for Emerging Markets

Michael J. Howell

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight.

Vermilion Research

Is This The Greatest Bubble of All Time?

P/Es are a misleading and wrong way to value aggregate stock markets. What works at the individual security level does not work well in aggregate....

Michael J. Howell

Risk Appetites Improving, A Bullish Sign; Downgrading Technology To Underweight

Below we highlight several metrics which provide evidence that risk appetites are improving, not deteriorating. This is a bullish signal for the...

Vermilion Research

Could The New Asian ‘Euro’ Mean A Coming Decade of Outperformance From Emerging Markets?

Asian cross-currency volatility is at its all-time low. A de facto Euro-like unit is forming. This could be hugely bullish for Emerging Markets

Michael J. Howell

EM Remains Global Leadership -- Remain Overweight

Price and RS uptrends for the MSCI EM index continues to underpin our bullish outlook for emerging market equities -- remain overweight.

Vermilion Research

Is This The Greatest Bubble of All Time?

P/Es are a misleading and wrong way to value aggregate stock markets. What works at the individual security level does not work well in aggregate....

Michael J. Howell

Global Commodity-Related Equity Sectors In Secular Bull

We believe commodities are in the early stages of a new secular bull market. Global Materials & Energy remain our favorite Sector overweights - add...

Vermilion Research