Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?</li>
<li>China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?</li>
<li>UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.</li>
</ul>


The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has crashed! Only two months during COVID-19 were worse. So, how bad is it?
China is a mess. And it just got worse. The Hang Seng Index collapsed. Are Chinese stocks a buy yet?
UK inflation added to the ‘we must remain hawkish’ narrative of central banks. Yet, many rate cuts are coming.


The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

<ul>
<li>2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.</li>
<li>China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.</li>
<li>A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.</li>
</ul>


2024 will bring an environment of a grand-scale rebalancing of multi-asset portfolios. And the latest headline-making remarks on US government debt from China confirm this.
China wants to diversify its foreign reserves further. With relatively stable foreign currency reserves, this suggests the selling of US Treasuries, which would be different from what we have seen.
A significant part of the diversification of foreign reserves will likely end up with gold. China has been, by far, the biggest buyer of gold over the last two years.


The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>China’s top policymakers emphasized economic growth and signaled stronger fiscal support when they met Monday and Tuesday to chalk out plans for the world’s second-largest economy in the coming year.</li><li>Policymakers at the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) called for “efforts to pursue progress while ensuring stability” in 2024, according to a readout published by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.</li><li>The conference took place in Beijing and was attended by top leaders, including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.</li></ul>

China’s top policymakers emphasized economic growth and signaled stronger fiscal support when they met Monday and Tuesday to chalk out plans for the world’s second-largest economy in the coming year.Policymakers at the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) called for “efforts to pursue progress while ensuring stability” in 2024, according to a readout published by the state-run Xinhua News Agency.The conference took place in Beijing and was attended by top leaders, including President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang.

Economists See China Focusing More on Growth Next Year After Key Meeting 

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

<ul><li>Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.</li><li>While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.</li><li>Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.</li></ul>

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Persistent overcapacity in industry and real-estate has resulted in a spreading crisis among  shadow-banks, as many of them begin defaulting on investment products (pseudo-deposits). Moral hazard rules out government rescues. </li>
<li>As global supply chains abandon China-centricity, exports continue losing global market share. But with domestic demand weak, the annualized trade surplus is US$900bn, much of it leaking as capital flight. </li>
<li>FAI is decelerating (adjusting to industrial capacity). Shrinking working age population requires productivity to be main driver of growth. Japanified decade ahead likely, but with RGDP growth settling at 3%. </li>
</ul>


Persistent overcapacity in industry and real-estate has resulted in a spreading crisis among  shadow-banks, as many of them begin defaulting on investment products (pseudo-deposits). Moral hazard rules out government rescues. 
As global supply chains abandon China-centricity, exports continue losing global market share. But with domestic demand weak, the annualized trade surplus is US$900bn, much of it leaking as capital flight. 
FAI is decelerating (adjusting to industrial capacity). Shrinking working age population requires productivity to be main driver of growth. Japanified decade ahead likely, but with RGDP growth settling at 3%. 


China's Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity

China

The MSCI China Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1992.

MSCI China Index (MXCN INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – US Hawkishness, Bitcoin Memes, and China's Value Trap

The Weekly Market Monitor! Start your week in financial markets, with some of last week’s biggest surprises, stories and charts.

Jeroen Blokland

The Great Portfolio Rebalance Will Accelerate in 2024: Part 1 – China Wants Less US Debt

China wants to further diversify its foreign reserve holdings, which likely means less US Treasuries and more Gold buying.

Jeroen Blokland

Economists See China Focusing More on Growth Next Year After Key Meeting

China’s top policymakers emphasized economic growth and signaled stronger fiscal support when they met Monday and Tuesday to chalk out plans for...

Caixin Global

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1. While this divergence is gradually...

Steno Research

China's Slow-Burning Financial Crisis Worsens Amid Persistent Overcapacity

With trust companies defaulting, & Country Garden narrowly averting default, China's slow-burning financial crisis is speeding up. Overcapacity...

Prasenjit K. Basu