European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag-91f7c8f8-f418-4db5-953e-ec2206d64e67" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27120:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR US)</a> in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).</li>
<li>Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.</li>
<li>Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.
</li>
</ul>


Novartis offers an agreed €68/share, 89% premium, for MorphoSys AG (MOR US) in a bet that pelabrisib could become a blockbuster to treat myelofibrosis (possibly reaching peak sales of $1.1-1.5 billion).
Considering that the shares of Morphosys were trading in the low teens in November, I believe that shareholders will be happy to part with the shares.
Spread (gross/annualised) is 4.65%/18.09% (assuming settlement by 20 May). Novartis believes pelabrisib is definitely worth the risk. Long.



Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

<ul>
<li>Novartis published its offer document for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a> (US: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag-91f7c8f8-f418-4db5-953e-ec2206d64e67" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27120:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR US)</a>) following approval by BaFin. The acceptance period has commenced on 11 April, and will expire on 13 May.</li>
<li>I remain confident NVS' acquisition of MOR closes on track. I maintain my TP at €68/share, $18.25/ADR offer price, as deal will highly likely close in H1, in my view.</li>
<li>As of 11 April, gross spread is 0.82% and the estimated annual return is 7.78%. Long and tender.
</li>
</ul>


Novartis published its offer document for MorphoSys AG (MOR GR) (US: MorphoSys AG (MOR US)) following approval by BaFin. The acceptance period has commenced on 11 April, and will expire on 13 May.
I remain confident NVS' acquisition of MOR closes on track. I maintain my TP at €68/share, $18.25/ADR offer price, as deal will highly likely close in H1, in my view.
As of 11 April, gross spread is 0.82% and the estimated annual return is 7.78%. Long and tender.



Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Murakami-San now owns far more in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.</li>
<li>The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>. It is also informative for what isn't present.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/prosus-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28104:1" rel="noopener">Prosus (PRX NA)</a>'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> to buy-back Prosus will continue.</li>
</ul>


Murakami-San now owns far more in Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) than he can easily get out of other than by corporate action. Murakami-san is not a dumb guy. He knows this.
The unique investigative shareholder register confirms what has been long rumoured about a certain shareholder activist in L'Occitane (973 HK). It is also informative for what isn't present.

Prosus (PRX NA)'s discount to NAV and implied stub widened after Fabricio Bloisi's CEO appointment the previous week. But the sell-down of Tencent (700 HK) to buy-back Prosus will continue.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>There could be two regular MDAX changes in June including the long-anticipated deletion of M&amp;A candidate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/morphosys-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21675:1" rel="noopener">MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)</a>. </li>
<li>We do not see any changes for the DAX index based on the current numbers.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the DAX index and the MDAX index in the run up to the June 2024 index rebal event.
There could be two regular MDAX changes in June including the long-anticipated deletion of M&amp;A candidate MorphoSys AG (MOR GR). 
We do not see any changes for the DAX index based on the current numbers.


Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-cycle-carriage-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:347:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)</a>'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.</li>
<li>A simple <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>."</li>
</ul>


The CSRC has announced five capital market cooperation measures for the Hong Kong Southbound Connect programs including  RMB dual counters and REITs. 

Jardine Cycle &amp; Carriage (JCNC SP)'s current implied stub value and simple ratio are both highly elevated.
A simple Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)model says "this doesn't present me with enough upside to warrant it unless I am also really bullish Oriental Land (4661 JP)."


Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

Germany

Gerresheimer AG develops and produces specialty products made of glass and plastic.  The Company produces containers for a variety of substances and medicines.

Evotec AG offers drug research, development, and manufacturing services.  The Company offers assay development and screening and compound optimization services to pharmaceutical companies.  Evotec also develops drugs on its own for out-licensing.

Biotest AG is a provider of plasma proteins and biological drugs. The Company has specialized primarily in the areas of clinical immunology, haematology and intensive medicine with a focus on treating diseases of the immune and haematopoietic systems. Biotest AG has production operations mainly in Europe and the US, and sells its products worldwide.

Formycon AG is a biopharmaceutical company with more than twelve years experience in product development. The company's activities focus on developing and marketing "biosimilars" - biopharmaceuticals which are similar to existing drugs for which patent protection is expiring - as well as the provision of contract services  to other biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies.

Heidelberg Pharma AG operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on development and commercialization of novel cancer therapies. Heidelberg Pharma offers pharmacology, drug metabolism, pharmacokinetics analysis, and molecular biology in the fields of oncology and inflammatory diseases. Heidelberg Pharma serves customers in Germany.

Affimed NV is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing targeted cancer immunotherapies.

Draegerwerk AG & Company KGAA manufactures medical, safety, and aerospace equipment. The Company produces ventilators, monitoring equipment, transport incubators, anesthesia machines, surgical lights, ward equipment, home care equipment, systems for safe breathing in industry, mining and fire fighting, and airplane crew and passenger oxygen systems.

Paul Hartmann AG manufactures and markets personal hygiene and medical products. The Company sells baby diapers under the Fixie brand name, diagnostic equipment, and first aid, operating, skin care, feminine hygiene, and incontinence products.  Paul Hartmann operates approximately six production facilities in Germanyand markets its products worldwide.

Rhoen-Klinikum AG operates general, rehabilitation, and emergency health care facilities which offer inpatient and outpatient medical care to various communities in Germany.  These clinics and hospitals offer cardiological, surgical, psychiatric, neurological and neurosurgical, orthopedic, addiction treatment, and physical therapy services.

Stratec SE provides automation solutions in the fields of vitro diagnostics and life sciences. The Company offers fully automated analyzer systems, software for laboratory data management, and smart consumables. Stratec serves customers worldwide.

Azenta, Inc. provides life sciences solutions. The Company offers cold-chain sample management solutions and genomic services across areas such as drug development, clinical research, and advanced cell therapies. Azenta serves pharmaceutical, biotech, academic, and healthcare institutions worldwide.

NeoGenomics, Inc. operates a network of clinical laboratories that specializes in cancer genetics diagnostic testing services. The Company's services include cytogenetics, fluorescence in-situhybridization (FISH), flow cytometry, morphology, anatomic pathology, and molecular genetic testing. NeoGenomics serves pathologists, oncologists, urologists, and hospitals.

LegoChem Biosciences, Inc. (LCB) is a researched-based biotechnology company that discovers, develops, and commercializs of medicines.  The Company utilizes chemistry to make biologics more targeted and potent for patients with diseases of highly unmet medical needs.  The Company focuses on therapy within antibiotics, anti-coagulants, oncology, antibody and protein-drug conjugate.

Genscript Biotech Corp is biotech service company. The Company provides life science services and products and pre-clinical drug development services.

Syngene International Limited provides contract research and manufacturing services to the pharmaceutical industry. The Company offers chemical and formulation development, polymer research, large molecule and clinical development, and stability services. Syngene International serves customers worldwide.

Pharmaron Beijing Co., Ltd. engages in discovery, development, and manufacturing spectrum for small molecule drugs, cell therapies, and gene therapies as well as providing testing services for medical devices and clinic research. The Company offers laboratory, clinical development, chemistry manufactory and control, and other services. Pharmaron Beijing conducts businesses based in China.

ST Pharm Co., Ltd.  manufactures active pharmaceutical ingredients.  The Company is also engaged in new drug custom manufacturing services, fine chemical business, and bio-therapy businesss.

Joinn Laboratories (China) Co., Ltd. operates as a medicines development company. The Company offers drug development, pharmaceutical analysis, pharmacologic testing, and other related services. Joinn Laboratories (China) also provides pesticide and medical device safety evaluation services.

Syneos Health, Inc. operates as a biopharmaceutical solutions organization. The Company offers therapeutic expertise, bioanalytics solutions, clinical development services, medical devices, diagnostics, and commercialization. Syneos Health serves patients worldwide.

Tecan Group AG develops, manufactures and distributes laboratory automation components and systems. The Company produces robotic sample processors, stand-alone separation and detection devices, laser scanners, integrated systems, and pumps and valves for high precision liquid handling. The products are mainly used by research and diagnostic laboratories.

MorphoSys AG operates as a biopharmaceutical company. The Company discovers and develops differentiated therapies and medicines for the patients suffering from cancer, inflammations, and autoimmune diseases. MorphoSys serves customers in Germany.

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MorphoSys AG (MOR GR)

Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

Novartis offers to acquire MorphoSys AG with acceptance period until May 13, expected to close in H1 with a TP of €68/share, $18.25/ADR. Long and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result

Hellofresh could be deleted from the MDAX index in June 2024. However, this depends on the final outcome of the Encavis Tender Offer.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Novartis Strikes for Possible Myelofibrosis Blockbuster

​Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Novartis/Morphosys: Start of Offer Period

​Novartis offers to acquire MorphoSys AG with acceptance period until May 13, expected to close in H1 with a TP of €68/share, $18.25/ADR. Long and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Mitsui Matsushima, L'Occitane, Prosus/Tencent, EOFlow

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard DAX/MDAX Jun 24: Hellofresh MDAX Deletion Hinges on Encavis Tender Offer Result

Hellofresh could be deleted from the MDAX index in June 2024. However, this depends on the final outcome of the Encavis Tender Offer.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: HK Southbound, Jardine Cycle, Keisei/Oriental Land, BHP/Anglo American

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Novartis offers premium for MorphoSys AG in a bet on pelabrisib as a potential blockbuster for myelofibrosis treatment. Shareholders are likely to...

Novartis offers to acquire MorphoSys AG with acceptance period until May 13, expected to close in H1 with a TP of €68/share, $18.25/ADR. Long and...