Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Every year in April there are two TOPIX rebalance changes - the FFW review for July-September FY-end companies, and the annual liquidity factor adjustments.</li>
<li>This year, the former is replaced by the TOPIX FFW Methodology Change for the new Market Structure. This is a big change, but it will not necessarily overwhelm the latter.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a>'s piece of 5 weeks ago discussing the Liquidity Factor basket has seen generally good performance. There are two days to go. </li>
</ul>


Every year in April there are two TOPIX rebalance changes - the FFW review for July-September FY-end companies, and the annual liquidity factor adjustments.
This year, the former is replaced by the TOPIX FFW Methodology Change for the new Market Structure. This is a big change, but it will not necessarily overwhelm the latter.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA's piece of 5 weeks ago discussing the Liquidity Factor basket has seen generally good performance. There are two days to go. 


The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment - Still a Trade To Do

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">Freee KK (4478 JP)</a> offers cloud-based online accounting and HR/Payroll software to small and medium businesses (SMBs) in Japan. The company operates a subscription-based revenue model.</li>
<li>Freee reported its first-ever profits recently and we expect continued improvement in freee’s profitability driven by its strong business model vs MF whose business model has started to breakdown.</li>
<li>Freee’s current valuation multiples are cheap and there is significant upside to the current share price, hence we recommend making an entry.</li>
</ul>



Freee KK (4478 JP) offers cloud-based online accounting and HR/Payroll software to small and medium businesses (SMBs) in Japan. The company operates a subscription-based revenue model.
Freee reported its first-ever profits recently and we expect continued improvement in freee’s profitability driven by its strong business model vs MF whose business model has started to breakdown.
Freee’s current valuation multiples are cheap and there is significant upside to the current share price, hence we recommend making an entry.


2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen</li>
<li>Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance</li>
<li>The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation </li>
</ul>


Money Forward reported Q1 results. Net sales rose 40% YoY to 9.5 billion yen
Money Forward saw a big jump in profitability, which puts the company on track to meet full year guidance
The stock has risen around 30% since January. We still see around 7% upside to our target valuation 


<ul>
<li>Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen</li>
<li>Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion</li>
<li>Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)</li>
</ul>


Results flash: Q4 sales +42%; Adjusted EBITDA at record high of 1.2 billion yen
Key focus remains Business SaaS where sales rose +52% YoY to 5.5 billion
Business earnings driven by acquisition of medium-sized corporates (+40% YoY) and higher ARPU (+22% YoY)


<ul>
<li>Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.</li>
<li>Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.</li>
<li>Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.</li>
</ul>


Since releasing Q3 results, Money Forward’s stock price has fallen from 4,800 yen to the present 4,000 yen.
Results on Friday could herald a stronger outlook for the share price. The market is fixated on quarterly earnings and ad spend - these should improve sequentially.
Money Forward will release guidance for the coming fiscal year, which could see the company turn profitable at the EBITDA level.


Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

Japan

Money Forward, Inc. develops mobile application software. The Company produces automatic household account book softwares, household account book application softwares, and other products. Money Forward also provides personal financial management, cloud based accounting solutions, and other services.

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Money Forward (3994 JP)

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment - Still a Trade To Do

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Trade is an esoteric rebalance accompanying the major FFW rebalance to be announced Thursday. The major names have seen...

Travis Lundy

2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Freee has proved that its business model is solid vs Money Forward by beginning to make profits without compromising on growth. freee's shares are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Adjustment - Still a Trade To Do

The TOPIX Liquidity Factor Trade is an esoteric rebalance accompanying the major FFW rebalance to be announced Thursday. The major names have seen...

Travis Lundy

2025 High Conviction: Freee KK – Becoming Free From Losses; Significant Upside

Freee has proved that its business model is solid vs Money Forward by beginning to make profits without compromising on growth. freee's shares are...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994) | Net Sales +40%

​Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3994) | Best Quarter Ever

​Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward (3394) | Looking Forward - Q4 Preview

​Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Money Forward's Q1 results show a 40% increase in net sales, leading to a significant rise in profitability and a positive outlook for meeting...

Strong Q4 sales growth and record high Adjusted EBITDA of 1.2 billion yen. Business SaaS sales up 52% YoY. Acquisition of medium-sized corporates...

Money Forward's stock price has dropped since Q3 results, but upcoming guidance and improved earnings could lead to a stronger outlook.