Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China where the MSCI EM index (EEM-US) is breaking below major $52 base support, the Shanghai Composite is breaking below 3500, the CSI 300 is breaking below 4885, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng is breaking below 27,000 support. Thankfully we have stayed away from areas hardest hit since EM/China has had poor relative performance for quite some time. Despite this being largely self-induced and very China-specific due to China's regulatory crackdown, the overhang could linger as additional Sectors/industries could be targeted. Moreover, it certainly does not help our already cautious and neutral outlook, but rather reinforces it.

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Draper Esprit reported a very strong FY21, with a 51% increase in gross portfolio value (GPV) to £984m and a 57% rise in NAV to £1.03bn, together with realisations and exits at a record £206m. As at 31 March 2021, plc cash stood at £160.7m. Immediately following the results, management announced a placing and retail offer raising £111m at 800p per share, a 5% discount to the closing price on 11 June 2021 of 839p per share and an 8% premium to the latest NAV of 743p per share, as at 31 March 2021. The cash raised will be used to increase Draper Esprit’s rate of investment to over £150m pa. Following the raise, net of £48m of post year-end investment, we estimate that Draper Esprit has net cash of over £215m.

Draper Esprit reported a very strong FY21, with a 51% increase in gross portfolio value (GPV) to £984m and a 57% rise in NAV to £1.03bn, together with realisations and exits at a record £206m. As at 31 March 2021, plc cash stood at £160.7m. Immediately following the results, management announced a placing and retail offer raising £111m at 800p per share, a 5% discount to the closing price on 11 June 2021 of 839p per share and an 8% premium to the latest NAV of 743p per share, as at 31 March 2021. The cash raised will be used to increase Draper Esprit’s rate of investment to over £150m pa. Following the raise, net of £48m of post year-end investment, we estimate that Draper Esprit has net cash of over £215m. 

Draper Esprit - FY21 results, £111m placing and retail offer

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE) continue to hold above critical support levels and market dynamics remain largely positive. Until this changes, we believe global equities are headed higher in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, we are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

Chairman, sgtradex

Tan Chin-Hwee

Chairman

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business owner hire and invest?Uncertainty is often lumped together as risk but there is a different: risk can be measured but uncertainty cannot. Daniel Ellsberg devised the famous experiment where there are 2 jars. The first jar, you are told, contains 50 red balls and 50 black balls. The 2nd jars contain 100 red and black balls but the number of each is…

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business owner hire and invest?Uncertainty is often lumped together as risk but there is a different: risk can be measured but uncertainty cannot. Daniel Ellsberg devised the famous experiment where there are 2 jars. The first jar, you are told, contains 50 red balls and 50 black balls. The 2nd jars contain 100 red and black balls but the number of each is…

Markets from Here-Uncertainty Is NOT Risk

United Kingdom

Molten Ventures PLC operates as a venture capital firm. The Company invests in high-growth technology companies. Molten Ventures serves clients in Europe.

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Molten Ventures (GROW LN)

Weakness Contained To EM & China Thus Far; Actionable Themes: Tech, Utilities, Financials, Materials

Cracks are beginning to show, particularly in EM/China. Key support violations include the MSCI EM index below $52, the Shanghai Comp below 3500,...

Vermilion Research

Draper Esprit - FY21 results, £111m placing and retail offer

Draper Esprit reported a very strong FY21, with a 51% increase in gross portfolio value (GPV) to £984m and a 57% rise in NAV to £1.03bn, together...

Edison Investment Research

Global Equity Strategy: Small-Caps and Value Stocks Remain in Focus

We are reiterating our overweight recommendations on small-caps and value as we believe outperformance from these areas is likely to continue.

Vermilion Research

The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

Markets from Here-Uncertainty Is NOT Risk

Cameron has to take the fall as he took a huge strategic risk for partisan reasons, misreading the mood. The question is: do you as a business...

Tan Chin-Hwee

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