Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. </li>
<li>More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. </li>
<li>The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. </li>
</ul>


About 10 days ago I put out a piece saying H1 guidance trends were such that a lot more banks would upgrade guidance before results. 
More than two dozen did and the average guidance uplift is VERY high at +59%. The median uplift vs guidance for 35 banks guiding/reporting is +39% for H1. 
The big wave of bank earnings is today through late next week. Megas at the end. Stay long banks. Megas. Cheap regionals. 


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

<ul>
<li>So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).</li>
<li>This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.</li>
<li>I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).
This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.
I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.


Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

<ul>
<li>On 5 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tomony-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17118:1" rel="noopener">Tomony Holdings (8600 JP)</a> - a holding company for two regional banks based in Tokushima Prefecture and Kagawa Prefecture - announced (gasp!) a NEW SHARE OFFERING. </li>
<li>It offered 28mm shares + 4.2mm greenshoe - a share count increase of 20%. At 0.27x book. This IS unusual. Especially when banks are being asked to produce better ROC. </li>
<li>The deal priced at ¥366. We're there now. Banks have been sold. It is worth looking at where we are and what could happen next. It's cheap.</li>
</ul>


On 5 December, Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) - a holding company for two regional banks based in Tokushima Prefecture and Kagawa Prefecture - announced (gasp!) a NEW SHARE OFFERING. 
It offered 28mm shares + 4.2mm greenshoe - a share count increase of 20%. At 0.27x book. This IS unusual. Especially when banks are being asked to produce better ROC. 
The deal priced at ¥366. We're there now. Banks have been sold. It is worth looking at where we are and what could happen next. It's cheap.


Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) - Regional Bank NEW SHARE Issue - Not What You Want To See, But Buy Anyway

Japan

The Miyazaki Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Miyazaki and Kagoshima. The Bank provides financial services such as deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Miyazaki Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, letters of credit, and venture capital business.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Miyazaki Bank (8393 JP)

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

10 of about 70 Japanese regional banks have revised guidance for the H1 to end-Sep 2024. The average gain is near 70% vs previous guidance. That's...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

This AM has a Nikkei headline saying Japan's 3 megabanks will report ¥2.0trln in Net Profit in H1. That compares to ¥894bn last year, and ¥3.3trln...

Travis Lundy

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

10 of about 70 Japanese regional banks have revised guidance for the H1 to end-Sep 2024. The average gain is near 70% vs previous guidance. That's...

Travis Lundy

Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) - Regional Bank NEW SHARE Issue - Not What You Want To See, But Buy Anyway

High-ish ROE Tomony Holdings just priced a large, dilutive equity offering to raise equity at 0.27x book to make more loans. Or so they say. I...

Travis Lundy