Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

7&I (3382) Selldown of Seven Bank (8410) Is Good, Not Bad

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance/Results - Better and Better

7&I (3382 JP) - An ITO Family MBO? With Itochu? At ¥9trln? Maybe. Information Is Scarce

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

Tomony Holdings (8600 JP) - Regional Bank NEW SHARE Issue - Not What You Want To See, But Buy Anyway

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).</li>
<li>This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.</li>
<li>I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.</li>
</ul>


So far, 10 regional banks have upgraded guidance since Q1 results. One of them (Iyogin) twice. The average gain is +71.7% vs original H1 guidance (if we count Iyogin once).
This week will be the big push for new guidance ahead of a flood earnings reports the following week. Election results will cause concern, and the BOJ meets Thursday.
I expect a move in December (positive for banks), but it may be US Fed and $/¥-dependent. In the meantime banks enjoy tailwinds.


Tokyo Kiraboshi Financial Group (7173 JP)

Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still

Bank Of Nagoya

Japan 2024 H1 Bank Guidance: Interest/Fees ⬆︎, Expenses/Credit Costs⬇︎ - Opportunity Good Still