Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral</li>
<li>NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan - still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market 
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral
NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan - still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.


Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX ,-0.6% overnight, manages +0.3% for May; Debt Ceiling Passage on Track; 2 Fed Officials express dovish view; Weak China Factory PMI puts a Damper on Sentiment</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JP Equities Best Globally in May; USDJPY strenghtens after intervention warning; Bullish Daikin MTP growth plan; JP Autos rank worst in BEV transition ranking </li>
<li>NUGGET. Revisiting our thesis on Seiko Epson in light of HP Inc(HPQ) 2Q earnings and IDC April report on PCs</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX ,-0.6% overnight, manages +0.3% for May; Debt Ceiling Passage on Track; 2 Fed Officials express dovish view; Weak China Factory PMI puts a Damper on Sentiment
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JP Equities Best Globally in May; USDJPY strenghtens after intervention warning; Bullish Daikin MTP growth plan; JP Autos rank worst in BEV transition ranking 
NUGGET. Revisiting our thesis on Seiko Epson in light of HP Inc(HPQ) 2Q earnings and IDC April report on PCs


Ohayo Japan |SPX Sells off on AI Rally Pause to Close May +0.3%;NUGGET: Seiko Epson-Headwinds Abound

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Closed for Memorial Day; SPX Futs rise on Debt Deal prospects; Republican Right Wing opposition emerging; NVIDIA annc partnerships/new chip release that CEO says is "A Big Deal"</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects; Softbank share px +8% on ARM new chip rollout</li>
<li>NUGGET.  [Another] Wake-Up Call for Japanese OEMs.  The impact of rapid EV transition is starting with Toyota at the forefront. If this is happening to Toyota NOW, then the rest...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Closed for Memorial Day; SPX Futs rise on Debt Deal prospects; Republican Right Wing opposition emerging; NVIDIA annc partnerships/new chip release that CEO says is "A Big Deal"
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects; Softbank share px +8% on ARM new chip rollout
NUGGET.  [Another] Wake-Up Call for Japanese OEMs.  The impact of rapid EV transition is starting with Toyota at the forefront. If this is happening to Toyota NOW, then the rest...


Ohayo Japan |SPX Futs Gain on Memorial Day-Debt Optimism; NUGGET: Disruption Gets Real for JP Autos

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

NISSAN SHATAI CO., LTD. develops, designs, and assembles automobiles including sedans, Recreational Vehicles(RV), station wagons, and buses for Nissan Motor. The Company also manufactures parts for motor vehicles.

The Yokohama Rubber Company Limited produces rubber products including automobile tires, tubes, and conveyor belt for industrial use.  The Company also produces golf clubs and passenger aircraft parts such as restroom units and tanks for drinking water.

KOITO MANUFACTURING CO., LTD. produces lighting equipments for automobiles such as head and tail lights, rear combination lamps, and fog lamps.  The Company has  its production facilities in Japan, the US, the UK, Czech, China, Thailand, Taiwan, and India.  Koito Manufacturing also manufactures electronics parts for aircrafts including lighting equipments and oil pressure gauges.

Stanley Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures lighting equipment including head lights, HID (High Intensity Discharge) assist lamps, and rear combination lamps for automobiles.  The Company also produces LCD (Liquid Cristal Display) and LED (Light Emitted Diode) lamps for communication equipment, office automation equipment, and information displays.

NGK SPARK PLUG Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spark plugs for automobiles, motorcycles, agricultural machinery, ships, and aircrafts.  The Company also makes ceramic products for semiconductor and telecommunication equipment. NGK Spark Plug markets its products under the NGK and NTK brand names and has subsidiaries in the US, Canada, France, Germany, and South Korea.

NIFCO INC. manufactures synthetic resinous fasteners and plastic components for automobiles and home electronic appliances.  The Company has its subsidiaries in Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the US.

NOK CORPORATION manufactures oil seals and industrial rubber products for automobiles.  The Company also produces electronic equipment used for cellular phones and PCs.  NOK has production facilities in Taiwan and Thailand.

Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Ltd. manufactures automobile and motorcycle tires, industrial rubber products and sports equipment.  The Company's products include golf balls, tennis rackets, rubber gloves, and artificial turf. Sumitomo Rubber sells its products under Dunlop brand around the world.

Toyo Tire Corporation manufactures and markets rubber and chemical goods.  The Company's products include motor vehicle tires, aluminum alloy wheels, office equipment parts, heat resistant board, and automobile parts such as bumpers and air bag systems.  Toyo Tire & Rubber has its  subsidiaries in the  US, Australia, Canada, Germany, and China.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles.  The Company's products include heavyweight touring, custom, and performance motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, and general merchandise.  Harley-Davidson also provides motorcycle floor planning and parts and accessories financing to its North American and European dealers.

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

Thor Industries, Inc. produces and sells a wide range of recreation vehicles.  The Company markets its products through independent dealers located throughout the United States and Canada.  Thor's products are sold under the Airstream Classic, Dutchmen, Skamper, Infinity, Four Winds, Citation, Signature, and other names.

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

Yadea Group is a leading electric two wheeler brand in China. The company produces electric bikes and scooters.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS manufactures cars and automobile parts under license from Fiat.  The Group also imports Alfa Romeo and Fiat cars for domestic market and provides financing services.

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited designs, researches, develops, manufactures and sells a variety of passenger vehicles in China.

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes minibuses and sedans in the People's Republic of China.  The Company also manufactures and trades automotive components.

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

SPX gains as end of Fed hike cycle in sight; NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand; JP investors buy record...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |SPX Sells off on AI Rally Pause to Close May +0.3%;NUGGET: Seiko Epson-Headwinds Abound

Debt deal in sight. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JP Equities Best Globally in May; USDJPY strenghtens after intervention warning; Bullish Daikin MTP...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |SPX Futs Gain on Memorial Day-Debt Optimism; NUGGET: Disruption Gets Real for JP Autos

US Memorial Holidays. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects;...

Mark Chadwick

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