Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX hit 52W highs as Yellen sees no US Recession;  Rates fall on "inflation behind us" narrative; Global HF unwind bearish US positions; EV WARS as Ford Slashes prices.  </li>
<li>JAPAN.  NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.7%; Japan Back after Marine Day Holidays to lower US rates, stronger yen, Weaker China, and Tech bid; Blackrock lifts Japan stock outlook </li>
<li>NUGGET.  JAL(9201) Double Winner(Margins+Emmissions) with Fleet Upgrade. Share price has run, but strong tailwinds on demand and operational efficiency. Watch for pullback to pick up.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX hit 52W highs as Yellen sees no US Recession;  Rates fall on "inflation behind us" narrative; Global HF unwind bearish US positions; EV WARS as Ford Slashes prices.  
JAPAN.  NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.7%; Japan Back after Marine Day Holidays to lower US rates, stronger yen, Weaker China, and Tech bid; Blackrock lifts Japan stock outlook 
NUGGET.  JAL(9201) Double Winner(Margins+Emmissions) with Fleet Upgrade. Share price has run, but strong tailwinds on demand and operational efficiency. Watch for pullback to pick up.


Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner

Executive Director, Metrical Inc

Aki Matsumoto

Executive Director

Independent Leading Corporate Governance Research

Metrical Inc

METRICAL INC. is an independent leading Corporate Governance research firm in Japan where Corporate Governance is increasingly recognized as an important element on corporate management in these days. Thus, CG research and solutions would become an essential component of global capital markets and play important to contribute to transparency of the markets and maximize shareholders’ value in Japan. 

METRICAL INC. provides Corporate Governance research and analysis including rating services, and  also offers investment research and IR services with solutions and customized profound research on CG and IR issues.

<ul>
<li>Corporate governance report and securities report were inadequate because it was not possible to get a complete picture of how many advisors other than ex-CEOs were involved in the company.</li>
<li>Mitsubishi Electric, which has suffered scandals, has revealed that "senior advisors" have been involved in its management. However, it is possible that advisors influence management at other companies as well.</li>
<li>The ex-CEO isn't necessarily in charge of industry association activities, the compensation of the advisors is undisclosed, and Mitsubishi Electric still has a ways to go in improving management transparency.</li>
</ul>


Corporate governance report and securities report were inadequate because it was not possible to get a complete picture of how many advisors other than ex-CEOs were involved in the company.
Mitsubishi Electric, which has suffered scandals, has revealed that "senior advisors" have been involved in its management. However, it is possible that advisors influence management at other companies as well.
The ex-CEO isn't necessarily in charge of industry association activities, the compensation of the advisors is undisclosed, and Mitsubishi Electric still has a ways to go in improving management transparency.


Advisors' Disclosure Is Inadequate and Other Companies May Have Similar Cases

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.</li>
<li>The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  </li>
<li>The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) Board now recommends shareholders accept Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share. The Board also effectively rules out a bump.
The Board unconvincingly recommends the offer in part on the premise that the IFA’s DCF valuation is unrealistic due to punchy forecasts and positive feedback from stakeholders.  
The Board fails to consider that the peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’ multiples.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. </li>
<li>The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.</li>
<li>Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.</li>
</ul>



Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) reports FY2022 results on 12 May. Since the announcement of Japan Industrial Partners (JIP)’s pre-conditional tender offer of JPY4,620 per share, there have been no progress updates. 
The spread to the offer is currently 4.2%, suggesting a reasonable probability of success. However, the offer's success ultimately depends on shareholder backing, particularly from the activists on the register.
Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers.


Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.</li>
<li>On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.</li>
<li>Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.</li>
</ul>


Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We'll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.


Japan

Mitsubishi Electric Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets electronic equipment.  The Company's products include industrial machinery, heavy electric machinery, data communications systems, electronic devices, and consumer electronics.

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Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)

Ohayo Japan|Equities Cruise on No Recession Narrative; NUGGET: JAL(9201) A Double Winner

SPX hit 52W highs as no recession/inflation behind us narrative dominates; NKY Futures -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 138.7%; Japan to lower US rates,...

Mark Chadwick

Advisors' Disclosure Is Inadequate and Other Companies May Have Similar Cases

I would like to discuss the May 2 Nikkei article, "Mitsubishi Electric to Abolish Advisory System to Improve Management Transparency."

Metrical Inc

Toshiba (6502 JP): Risk/Reward as Board Unconvincingly Recommends JIP’s Offer

Peers have materially re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the declining premium of the offer’s implied multiple vs peers’...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP): Tender Offer Risk/Reward

Shareholder support continues to pose a considerable risk as the peers have re-rated, the offer’s price ratio remains unattractive and the...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502) - Thinking About the Arb

Toshiba has seen shares rise a bit since Day1 post-anncmt ~6 weeks ago, but Peers have risen further and the earnings shift on forward consensus is...

Travis Lundy

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