Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.</li>
<li>Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish</li>
<li>200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass when we discussed SPX 5110-5120 as a bounce spot and a level to trade [long] against.
Possible that major lows are in at 4800-4820 SPX and $402-$412 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as discussed in 4/10/25 Int'l Compass. For now we want to remain near-term bullish
200-Day MAs on ACWI-US and SPX are spots where they could roll over. This is just a lean; if we see no reason to sell at those levels, we won't.


Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The index focuses on qualitative factors like capital efficiency and shareholder returns, but efforts to impose sector balance may have overextended its market benchmark role.</li>
<li>Some companies not fitting the 'value-up' narrative got included, while market favorites were sidelined by sector rankings, which is puzzling given the index's original goal.</li>
<li>Still, with rebalancing cut down to once a year, we should expect the flow impact on the index names to hit harder than initially thought compared to their sector peers.</li>
</ul>


The index focuses on qualitative factors like capital efficiency and shareholder returns, but efforts to impose sector balance may have overextended its market benchmark role.
Some companies not fitting the 'value-up' narrative got included, while market favorites were sidelined by sector rankings, which is puzzling given the index's original goal.
Still, with rebalancing cut down to once a year, we should expect the flow impact on the index names to hit harder than initially thought compared to their sector peers.


All the Scoop on the Korea Value-Up Index

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>June rebalance drops mid-May, goes live post-KOSPI 200 expiry. Back to 100 names—net outflow setup with more deletes than adds. ETFs rebalance into June 12 close.</li>
<li>KRX confirmed 10 special entries for June; results likely out in May with Value-Up rebalance. 12 protected names stay. Stocks over 10% weight, like Samsung and SK Hynix, remain.</li>
<li>Value-Up disclosure isn’t mandatory yet—rule starts June 2026. But compliant firms get a screening boost. Around 76 spots remain, filled via quant screen after excluding 24 protected names.</li>
</ul>


June rebalance drops mid-May, goes live post-KOSPI 200 expiry. Back to 100 names—net outflow setup with more deletes than adds. ETFs rebalance into June 12 close.
KRX confirmed 10 special entries for June; results likely out in May with Value-Up rebalance. 12 protected names stay. Stocks over 10% weight, like Samsung and SK Hynix, remain.
Value-Up disclosure isn’t mandatory yet—rule starts June 2026. But compliant firms get a screening boost. Around 76 spots remain, filled via quant screen after excluding 24 protected names.


June Value-Up Rebalance: Hype Fading, But Key Flags Remain

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution. </li>
<li>The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks. </li>
<li>The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.</li>
</ul>


Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution. 
The amount of shares dilution is excessive which is likely to result in a share price weakness in Hyundai Motor Securities in the coming weeks. 
The expected rights offering price for now is 6,640 won per share which is 24.5% discount to the closing price on 26 November.


Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/quantumpharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40369:1" rel="noopener">QuantumPharm (QUP HK)</a> raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.</li>
<li>We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.</li>
</ul>



QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO.
QuantumPharm is a R&amp;D platform, utilizing quantum physics-based first-principles calculation, advanced AI, high-performance cloud computing, and scalable and standardized robotic automation to provide drug and material science R&amp;D solutions.
We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.


QuantumPharm IPO Trading - Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

South Korea

Mirae Asset Securities Co.,Ltd. provides comprehensive wealth management services. The Company offers fixed income securities brokerage, securities dealing, equity underwriting, and other services. Mirae Asset Securities also deals with mergers and acquisitions, foreign currency, and financial derivatives.

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Mirae Asset Securities (006800 KS)

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels

Invest As If the Lows Are In; EURO $STOXX 50 and $TOPIX Reclaim Key Levels; Still near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass report. Possible...

Vermilion Research

All the Scoop on the Korea Value-Up Index

This post breaks down everything we need to know about the Korea Value-up Index that KRX just unveiled today, especially focusing on those...

Sanghyun Park

June Value-Up Rebalance: Hype Fading, But Key Flags Remain

This post gives a quick pulse check on the June Value-up Index rebalance—hype’s cooling off, but there are still a few key things to flag.

Sanghyun Park

Hyundai Motor Securities Announces a Rights Offering Involving a 49% Shares Dilution

Hyundai Motors Securities announced a rights offering worth nearly 200 billion won involving a 49% shares dilution which is likely to drive its...

Douglas Kim

QuantumPharm IPO Trading - Lukewarm Insti Demand Combined with a Tight Float at Listing

QuantumPharm (QUP HK) raised US$126m from its Hong Kong IPO. We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we...

Clarence Chu

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