Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the latest survey (September 6- 12), where most respondents focused on safe-haven assets due to concerns about the Fed's overly tight interest rate policy.</li><li>Following the Fed meeting on September 18, where it cut interest rates for the first time in four years by a larger-than-expected 50 bps and signaled continued reductions for 2024-26, the risk of a recession is now lower.</li><li>This is likely to lead to increased investment in risk assets, such as equities, and trigger sector rotations from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to cyclicals (energy, materials, and industrials), along with a greater focus on commodities.</li></ul>

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the latest survey (September 6- 12), where most respondents focused on safe-haven assets due to concerns about the Fed's overly tight interest rate policy.Following the Fed meeting on September 18, where it cut interest rates for the first time in four years by a larger-than-expected 50 bps and signaled continued reductions for 2024-26, the risk of a recession is now lower.This is likely to lead to increased investment in risk assets, such as equities, and trigger sector rotations from defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) to cyclicals (energy, materials, and industrials), along with a greater focus on commodities.

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

<ul><li>KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)</li><li>The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.</li><li>This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. </li></ul>

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn, with Bt50bn from individual investors and Bt100bn from institutional investors. (Note: these proportions may vary slightly depending on the authorities' discretion.)The fund guarantees the principal and offers a minimum annual return of 3% (up to a maximum of 9%) over 10 years.This attractive return, combined with high liquidity, is expected to encourage individual investors to shift funds from bank deposits to VAYU1 for better returns. 

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

<ul><li>We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.</li><li>We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.</li><li>CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. </li></ul>

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism demand, which could offset a weaker performance in the F&amp;B business where same-store-sales growth (SSSG) has not improved.We expect MINT to show the most notable growth both YoY and QoQ, benefiting from the high tourism season, as tourist numbers in Europe typically peak in 3Q24E, alongside major events such as the Euro Cup and the Olympics in Paris.CENTEL’s growth is expected to follow MINT’s trend, with potential YoY growth but a QoQ decline due to pre-operating expenses for its two new hotels in the Maldives, estimated at around Bt80mn in 3Q24E out of a total of Bt250mn. 

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mandarin Oriental International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This is the final installment in our series on the APAC Luxury Industry, where we highlighted that luxury travel might offer more appealing opportunities than traditional luxury goods.</li>
<li>While travel has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, traditional luxury goods have shown very low demand in recent months.</li>
<li>Below, we analyze recent trends in luxury travel for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minor-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2154:1" rel="noopener">Minor International (MINT TB)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiseido-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5718:1" rel="noopener">Shiseido Company (4911 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


This is the final installment in our series on the APAC Luxury Industry, where we highlighted that luxury travel might offer more appealing opportunities than traditional luxury goods.
While travel has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, traditional luxury goods have shown very low demand in recent months.
Below, we analyze recent trends in luxury travel for Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP), Minor International (MINT TB), and Shiseido Company (4911 JP).


APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

<ul><li>Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410/1,416 points.</li><li>For the overall picture, the index is still in an uptrend pattern, testing the upchannel resistance at around 1,348-1,432 points.</li><li>In the short term, the index is beginning to show signs of a correction after rising sharply by nearly 40 points in the previous three trading days.</li></ul>

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410/1,416 points.For the overall picture, the index is still in an uptrend pattern, testing the upchannel resistance at around 1,348-1,432 points.In the short term, the index is beginning to show signs of a correction after rising sharply by nearly 40 points in the previous three trading days.

Thailand

Minor International PCL is a global company focused on three primary businesses including restaurants, hotels and lifestyle brands distribution.

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Minor International (MINT-R TB)

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

KTX Zoom - APRIL 17, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410...

Krungthai XSpring

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Special Report: The Bigger the Fed Rate Cut, the Better for Cyclicals - SEPTEMBER 24, 2024

We expect that the Bank of America (BofA) Global Fund Manager Survey results for October will shift positively toward equities compared to the...

Krungthai XSpring

Special Report – Vayupak Fund 1 (VAYU1)

KTX expects that the sale of Type A investment units of the Vayupak 1 Fund (VAYU1), scheduled for September 16-20, will meet the target of Bt150bn

Krungthai XSpring

Industry Update - Tourism Sector - September 6, 2024

We are optimistic about the tourism sector’s earnings performance outlook for 3Q24E due to anticipated YoY growth in RevPAR, driven by high tourism...

Krungthai XSpring

APAC Luxury Industry Series Update: Travel Rebounds While Goods Decline

​Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

KTX Zoom - APRIL 17, 2024

Technically, the SET Index is expected to move lower, with the support at 1,391/1,385 points (75-day EMA/50-day EMA) and the resistance at 1,410...

Krungthai XSpring

Luxury travel has exceeded pre-pandemic levels, demand for traditional luxury goods has remained very low in recent months.