Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
<p>This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>I number 37, mostly firm, deals around the region.</p>
</div>
<div>
<p>More below the fold.</p>
</div>


This insight provides a quick summary of gross/annualised (where possible) spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and how those spreads have changed over the last week; plus the next hard events over the coming weeks.


I number 37, mostly firm, deals around the region.


More below the fold.


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: China Logistics, Kerry Logistics, China Youzan

Travis Lundy

<p>On 2 September at 7pm Australia time, the Marvelous Milton Merger Arb ratio was fixed, and just now it was <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210903/pdf/4504qbggnhgyc0.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a>. </p><p>The ratio of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shares to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> shares has been decided at 0.1863. Entitlements will be rounded up or down to the nearest share.</p><p>Those who have been following on my model would have the NAV at A$5.622 on 2 Sep at the close, or A$5.702/share including the A$0.08 of dividend which went ex- on August 31. That delivered me a number of 0.1864 but they started with A$5.70 rather than A$5.702.</p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/227/647/original/Screenshot+2021-09-03+at+12.18.13+PM.png?1630642709" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="227647"></figure></section><p>As reported in the <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/milton-corp-s-4b-takeover-finds-proxy-firm-support-20210901-p58ntx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR</a>, both major proxy services came out in favor of the deal saying advantages outweighed disadvantages, and noting the IE's "fair value" range said pricing was appropriate; in a good quote from the article, "there were no stones thrown", which usually results in an approval at the Scheme Meeting.</p><p>The schedule reported in the filing is unchanged from the schedule in the Scheme Booklet.</p><div>
<p>Today's announcement means the merger trade is "fixed" rather than floating and now the remaining "risks" are...</p>
<ul>
<li>a small and eminently arb-able risk arb spread (which is 3.56% less comms and borrow fees as I type (excluding any franking credit benefit)</li>
<li>the risk of whether this gets voted through at the Scheme Meeting on the 13th, and</li>
<li>the index impacts</li>
</ul>
<p>There is, as always, more below the fold.</p>
</div><hr><div><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 539pt;"><h2>History of Insights on the Situation</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22 Jun 21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24 Jun 21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21 Jul 21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton’s Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5 Aug 21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-still-marvelous-milton-arb-confirms-its-schedule-much-marvelousness-to-come" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12 Aug 21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-magnality-of-the-marvelous-milton-merger-makes-a-moribund-march-to-metaphysis-it-s-mirific" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It’s Mirific!)</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25 Aug 21</td>
<td>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/marvelous-milton-making-its-move-new-30yr-highs-on-both-stocks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:56651" rel="noopener">Marvelous Milton Making Its Move - New 30yr Highs On Both Stocks</a> </td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table></div><div><p></p></div>

On 2 September at 7pm Australia time, the Marvelous Milton Merger Arb ratio was fixed, and just now it was announced. The ratio of Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shares to Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) shares has been decided at 0.1863. Entitlements will be rounded up or down to the nearest share.Those who have been following on my model would have the NAV at A$5.622 on 2 Sep at the close, or A$5.702/share including the A$0.08 of dividend which went ex- on August 31. That delivered me a number of 0.1864 but they started with A$5.70 rather than A$5.702.As reported in the AFR, both major proxy services came out in favor of the deal saying advantages outweighed disadvantages, and noting the IE's "fair value" range said pricing was appropriate; in a good quote from the article, "there were no stones thrown", which usually results in an approval at the Scheme Meeting.The schedule reported in the filing is unchanged from the schedule in the Scheme Booklet.
Today's announcement means the merger trade is "fixed" rather than floating and now the remaining "risks" are...

a small and eminently arb-able risk arb spread (which is 3.56% less comms and borrow fees as I type (excluding any franking credit benefit)
the risk of whether this gets voted through at the Scheme Meeting on the 13th, and
the index impacts

There is, as always, more below the fold.






History of Insights on the Situation

Date
Title


22 Jun 21
Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb


24 Jun 21
Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb


21 Jul 21
Milton’s Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously


5 Aug 21
The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come


12 Aug 21
The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It’s Mirific!)


25 Aug 21

Marvelous Milton Making Its Move - New 30yr Highs On Both Stocks 




Marvelous Milton Merger Mapping Mabbled: Ratio Done, Now For The Hard Part

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd / Event-Driven

<p>On 22 June, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> announced that they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) under which <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU)</a> would acquire 100% of the shares that it did not already own in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a>.</p><p>Since then, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shares are up 15.5% and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> shares are up 13.8%.</p><p>On 5 August, the Court approved the convening of the Scheme Meeting on 13 September. That resulted in the fixing of the Calculation Date at 2 September.</p><p>As we near the Calculation Date, it is almost certain that neither of the MACs will be triggered and is it most likely that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shares holders will approve the deal.</p><p>Based on our calculations, as of the close on 26 August, the Net Tangible Assets of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> are A$5.6469 and MLT shareholders will receive 0.184407 shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> for each share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> that they hold.</p><p>With the Second Court Hearing date set for 20 September and the effective date on 21 September, the index providers will increase their index shares for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> soon after. We expect there will be significant buying on the stock from passive funds and do not expect too many of the current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> shareholders to sell <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> stock in the market immediately given the lack of liquid alternatives.</p><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/argo-investments-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29060:1" rel="noopener">Argo Investments Ltd (ARG AU)</a> could be a beneficiary of flow out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a>.</p>

On 22 June, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) and Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) announced that they had entered into a Scheme Implementation Agreement (SIA) under which Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. (SOL AU) would acquire 100% of the shares that it did not already own in Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU).Since then, Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shares are up 15.5% and Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) shares are up 13.8%.On 5 August, the Court approved the convening of the Scheme Meeting on 13 September. That resulted in the fixing of the Calculation Date at 2 September.As we near the Calculation Date, it is almost certain that neither of the MACs will be triggered and is it most likely that Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shares holders will approve the deal.Based on our calculations, as of the close on 26 August, the Net Tangible Assets of Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) are A$5.6469 and MLT shareholders will receive 0.184407 shares of Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) for each share of Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) that they hold.With the Second Court Hearing date set for 20 September and the effective date on 21 September, the index providers will increase their index shares for Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) soon after. We expect there will be significant buying on the stock from passive funds and do not expect too many of the current Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) shareholders to sell Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) stock in the market immediately given the lack of liquid alternatives.Argo Investments Ltd (ARG AU) could be a beneficiary of flow out of Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU).

Milton - WHSP: Nearing the Finish Line Where HUGE Passive Buying Awaits

<p>The <strong>Marvelous Milton Merger</strong> which is the proposed joining of two of Australia's longest-lived Listed Investment Companies - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> to be absorbed in a share swap by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> ("WHSP") - is coming closer to its do-or-die date.</p><p>There is one week until the Reference Date which will decide the share swap ratio and there are 12 trading days until the Scheme Meeting. </p><p>I have not been shy in writing about this situation. </p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col>
<col>
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="text-align: left; width: 539pt;"><h2>History of Insights on the Situation</h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Date</strong></td>
<td><strong>Title</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22-Jun-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24-Jun-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21-Jul-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milton’s Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5-Aug-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-still-marvelous-milton-arb-confirms-its-schedule-much-marvelousness-to-come" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come</a></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12-Aug-21</td>
<td><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-magnality-of-the-marvelous-milton-merger-makes-a-moribund-march-to-metaphysis-it-s-mirific" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It’s Mirific!)</a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>As time has passed, and the situation has looked more and more attractive, my mafficking and multitarian mysteriosophy (and occasional mussitation) has led to longer titles with more and more Ms.</p><p>This time, I note that with both Milton and WHSP hitting new 30-year highs today, despite the merger arb spread remaining reasonably wide, there are signs that the situation has started "accruing value."</p><p>While I am far from being a martinet (I am indeed more a mobilist), my mathemancy suggests Milton is maturing. </p><p><em>More on how to Mind the Movement below the fold. </em></p>

The Marvelous Milton Merger which is the proposed joining of two of Australia's longest-lived Listed Investment Companies - Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) to be absorbed in a share swap by Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) ("WHSP") - is coming closer to its do-or-die date.There is one week until the Reference Date which will decide the share swap ratio and there are 12 trading days until the Scheme Meeting. I have not been shy in writing about this situation. 





History of Insights on the Situation

Date
Title


22-Jun-21
Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb


24-Jun-21
Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb


21-Jul-21
Milton’s Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously


5-Aug-21
The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come


12-Aug-21
The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It’s Mirific!)


As time has passed, and the situation has looked more and more attractive, my mafficking and multitarian mysteriosophy (and occasional mussitation) has led to longer titles with more and more Ms.This time, I note that with both Milton and WHSP hitting new 30-year highs today, despite the merger arb spread remaining reasonably wide, there are signs that the situation has started "accruing value."While I am far from being a martinet (I am indeed more a mobilist), my mathemancy suggests Milton is maturing. More on how to Mind the Movement below the fold. 

Marvelous Milton Making Its Move - New 30yr Highs On Both Stocks

<p><strong>M is for <em>Milton</em>. </strong></p><p><strong>M is for <em>Moribund</em>, and <em>Mortmain</em> too. </strong> There is a stubborn stickiness to Milton pricing which is surprising, especially given the inputs to the trade. </p><p>This situation was outlined in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-merger-is-a-most-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53464" rel="noopener"><em>Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb</em></a>. The various impacts and influences were discussed further in <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-whsp-merger-index-implications-and-the-marvelous-arb" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53551" rel="noopener">Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb</a></em>. There was followup with cool tables in <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/milton-s-marvelous-arm-meanders-along-marvelously" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54765" rel="noopener">Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously</a></em>. There was additional table-pounding in <em><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-still-marvelous-milton-arb-confirms-its-schedule-much-marvelousness-to-come" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55604" rel="noopener">The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come</a></em>. I assume readers may draw conclusions from the titles as to where I stand. </p><p>It isn't any less marvelous today. Indeed it is mirific!</p><p>Since the 22 June joint announcement of the intention of Listed Investment Corporation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/milton-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29090:1" rel="noopener">Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)</a> to merge with other Listed Investment Corporation <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> ("WHSP"), both Milton and WHSP have traded significant excess volume.</p><p>One question is HOW MUCH?</p><p>The other question is DOES IT MATTER?</p><p>We look at both questions below, and at the pricing and of the situation today.</p>

M is for Milton. M is for Moribund, and Mortmain too.  There is a stubborn stickiness to Milton pricing which is surprising, especially given the inputs to the trade. This situation was outlined in Milton Merger Is A Most Marvelous Arb. The various impacts and influences were discussed further in Milton-WHSP Merger Index Implications and the Marvelous Arb. There was followup with cool tables in Milton's Marvelous Arb Meanders Along... Marvelously. There was additional table-pounding in The STILL MARVELOUS Milton Arb Confirms Its Schedule - Much Marvelousness to Come. I assume readers may draw conclusions from the titles as to where I stand. It isn't any less marvelous today. Indeed it is mirific!Since the 22 June joint announcement of the intention of Listed Investment Corporation Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU) to merge with other Listed Investment Corporation Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) ("WHSP"), both Milton and WHSP have traded significant excess volume.One question is HOW MUCH?The other question is DOES IT MATTER?We look at both questions below, and at the pricing and of the situation today.

The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It's Mirific!)

Australia

Milton Corporation Limited is a listed investment company incorporated in Australia.  The Fund aims to generate an increasing income stream in the form of fully franked dividends by investing in a portfolio that will also provide growth.  The Fund invests in companies, trusts, fixed interest securities (including mortgages), and property.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Milton Corp Ltd (MLT AU)

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: China Logistics, Kerry Logistics, China Youzan

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Marvelous Milton Merger Mapping Mabbled: Ratio Done, Now For The Hard Part

Marvelous Milton Merger Mapping Mabbled. The ratio is settled at 0.1863 shares of WHSP for every share of Milton. Next is the index trade... But...

Travis Lundy

Milton - WHSP: Nearing the Finish Line Where HUGE Passive Buying Awaits

The Milton/WHSP deal looks like its done. MACs unlikely to be triggered, Scheme Meeting should deliver a yes, passive buying awaits at the end....

Brian Freitas

Marvelous Milton Making Its Move - New 30yr Highs On Both Stocks

Marvelous Milton and Superb SOL have just hit 30yr highs today. A magnality to be sure. 7 trading days left. Watch excess volume and the WHSP...

Travis Lundy

The Magnality of the Marvelous Milton Merger Makes a Moribund March To Metaphysis (It's Mirific!)

The Marvelous Milton Merger Trade is somewhat moribund, perhaps suffering from mortmain. But remains mirific. There is considerable skew and...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)