Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician, The Markets Academy

David Coloretti, CMT

Technical Analysis / Chartered Market Technician

The Markets Academy

TMA implements 2 strategies. 1) Tactical ... Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) allows TMA to identify exhaustion / reversal points in interim trends by utilising our proprietary analysis of ST momentum indicators. 2) Medium Term ... our 3 Pillars approach to technical analysis allows TMA to determine high probability medium term outcomes in markets.

Technical Analysis

Microstrategy Inc Cl A / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.</li>
<li>The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.</li>
<li>Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.</li>
</ul>


MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.
The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS &lt; 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.


MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc (MSTR US)</a>'s Michael Saylor will now assume the new role of Executive Chairman and Phong Le, MSTR’s President, will serve as the company’s new CEO.</li>
<li>As Executive Chairman, Saylor will focus more on MSTR's bitcoin acquisition strategy and related bitcoin advocacy initiatives.</li>
<li>With one of the most bullish and influential players in the industry now focusing on crypto, this should be considered bullish, according to some media reports. That's a desperate takeaway.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc (MSTR US)'s Michael Saylor will now assume the new role of Executive Chairman and Phong Le, MSTR’s President, will serve as the company’s new CEO.
As Executive Chairman, Saylor will focus more on MSTR's bitcoin acquisition strategy and related bitcoin advocacy initiatives.
With one of the most bullish and influential players in the industry now focusing on crypto, this should be considered bullish, according to some media reports. That's a desperate takeaway.


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Saylor Mirrors Bitcoin's Fall

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">MicroStrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> is now trading at a ~26% discount to NAV as the bitcoin barbeque continues.  </li>
<li>Bitcoin is down ~40% YTD. If it falls another 24%, this will trigger a margin call on one of its loans.</li>
<li>Should bitcoin decline to US$17.5k, MSTR's crypto bet falls short of its debt obligation; debt that its software ops are not sufficiently profitable enough to service. </li>
</ul>



MicroStrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) is now trading at a ~26% discount to NAV as the bitcoin barbeque continues.  
Bitcoin is down ~40% YTD. If it falls another 24%, this will trigger a margin call on one of its loans.
Should bitcoin decline to US$17.5k, MSTR's crypto bet falls short of its debt obligation; debt that its software ops are not sufficiently profitable enough to service. 


MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Money From Nothing Is Worth?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> reported a net loss of $155.6mn in the fourth quarter, compared to the net loss of $124.3mn in the 4Q21. </li>
<li>MSTR took a non-cash digital asset impairment charge of $170.1mn in the first quarter, up from $146.6mn in the 4Q21. </li>
<li>A bet on MSTR is a bet on bitcoin. Yet MSTR is down 37% YTD, compared to ~20% for bitcoin. </li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) reported a net loss of $155.6mn in the fourth quarter, compared to the net loss of $124.3mn in the 4Q21. 
MSTR took a non-cash digital asset impairment charge of $170.1mn in the first quarter, up from $146.6mn in the 4Q21. 
A bet on MSTR is a bet on bitcoin. Yet MSTR is down 37% YTD, compared to ~20% for bitcoin. 


Microstrategy: More Losses For Bitcoin Spruiker

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc(MSTR US)</a><a href="https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/press-release-archive/microstrategy-announces-fourth-quarter-2021-financial-results_02-01-2022.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> reported</a> a net loss of $90mn or $8.43/share in the fourth quarter, missing consensus estimates for a profit of US$0.89/share.</li>
<li>The loss is predominantly due to the inclusion of impairment losses of US$146.6mn on its Bitcoin holdings, negating the $110.5mn in gross profit from the software ops.</li>
<li>MicroStrategy remains a bet on Bitcoin. Yet almost any alternate cryptocurrency security appears a better bet, if that is your bent.</li>
</ul>



Microstrategy Inc(MSTR US) reported a net loss of $90mn or $8.43/share in the fourth quarter, missing consensus estimates for a profit of US$0.89/share.
The loss is predominantly due to the inclusion of impairment losses of US$146.6mn on its Bitcoin holdings, negating the $110.5mn in gross profit from the software ops.
MicroStrategy remains a bet on Bitcoin. Yet almost any alternate cryptocurrency security appears a better bet, if that is your bent.


Microstrategy's Unsurprising Bitcoin Loss

United States

MicroStrategy Incorporated provides business intelligence software and related services.  The Company's technology platform enables departments and enterprises to deploy Web-based reporting and analysis solutions.  MicroStrategy also offers consulting, training, and support services.  Solutions are provided to retail, finance, telecommunications, insurance, dot-com, and healthcare industries.

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Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

30+ years as a technical analyst and a razor sharp focus on momentum confirmation delivered TMA a 75% unleveraged return on our 7 Smartkarma...

David Coloretti, CMT

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Saylor Mirrors Bitcoin's Fall

At this level, I'd be putting Microstrategy (MSTR US) on the short again. I see zero justification for a 92% NAV premium.

David Blennerhassett

MicroStrategy (MSTR US): Money From Nothing Is Worth?

MSTR may shortly boast a highly volatile investment, which is surpassed by a very real debt obligation, which is inadequately serviced by a modest,...

David Blennerhassett

Microstrategy: More Losses For Bitcoin Spruiker

I'm still not even remotely a buyer of this strategy. Arguably that "store of value" bet paid off in late 2020. But it hasn't worked for near on 17...

David Blennerhassett

Microstrategy's Unsurprising Bitcoin Loss

The 4Q21 loss is due to the inclusion of losses of US$146.6mn on its Bitcoin holdings, negating the $110.5mn in gross profit from its software ops....

David Blennerhassett

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