TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Amazon turned in another sensational quarter, and gave an impressive guidance given the sheer amount of spending the company is engaged in as it builds its logistics capabilities at breakneck speed. The stock, like its mega cap brethren has been weak for a variety of reasons (Covid/Election-linked volatility = sell all beats)..and is at the same price as prior to 2Q20 earnings. For a long term investor, $3000 is a good entry point, as we think the stock is eventually worth $6000…and ongoing Covid lockdowns will only increase demand for all its services.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>As we had speculated previously, it turns out that AMD’s teaser benchmarks for its graphics cards, at the Ryzen 5000 series presentation, were not for its highest end card. The company’s presentation on its newest line-up underscores the enormous improvement in competitiveness that AMD has engineered over the last few years and has implications not just for its direct competitors but also supplier TSMC and Nvidia customer, Nintendo.</p>

As we had speculated previously, it turns out that AMD’s teaser benchmarks for its graphics cards, at the Ryzen 5000 series presentation, were not for its highest end card. The company’s presentation on its newest line-up underscores the enormous improvement in competitiveness that AMD has engineered over the last few years and has implications not just for its direct competitors but also supplier TSMC and Nvidia customer, Nintendo.

AMD – RX6000 Series Should Make Intel and Nvidia Sweat and TSMC and Nintendo Smile a Touch

<p>As we approach the meat of earnings season this week, we give our take on which tech stocks its worth taking earnings risk on. Yea, we still like Amazon. But Google may be poised for the most explosive earnings reaction. </p>

As we approach the meat of earnings season this week, we give our take on which tech stocks its worth taking earnings risk on. Yea, we still like Amazon. But Google may be poised for the most explosive earnings reaction. 

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

<p>After a year-long investigation, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-sues-monopolist-google-violating-antitrust-laws" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> that it filed a civil <a href="https://www.justice.gov/opa/press-release/file/1328941/download" target="_blank" rel="noopener">antitrust lawsuit</a> against Google; owned by, and nearly synonymous with, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alphabet-inc-cl-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11369:1" rel="noopener">Alphabet (GOOG US)</a>.</p><p>Not exactly a surprise since Google and its FAANG brethren have been in the crosshairs for a while. Still, the formality hits hard. Like getting dumped; you know it's coming, but the words still sting.</p><p>DOJ's case is already quoted <em>ad nauseam</em> in the media, so I will regurgitate just a few small bits for context, then delve into my particular "angle" on this – i.e., how the U.S. Elections factor in.</p><p>In Facebook parlance, "<em>It's Complicated</em>," but here is the gist:</p><ul>
<li>Antitrust cases of this magnitude and complexity can be drawn out over many, many years.</li>
<li>Long-term, big-picture? Bad. Even just the overhang. Bad for Google, foreboding for others.</li>
<li>If you zoom in to a smaller near-term window, however… it's still bad. But maybe, a bit less.</li>
<li>The 2020 U.S. Elections could change the antitrust mood and direction, even if Trump wins.</li>
<li>Google will still have issues (there is bi-partisan thirst for its blood, just on different terms).</li>
<li>Still, post-elections, this likely goes from "bad and chaotic" to "bad, but somewhat orderly."</li>
</ul><p><em>This is a quick take on what is still today's news, but the overall thought process is similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/delisting-deceitful-chinese-companies-act-not-a-slam-dunk-and-has-more-bark-than-bite-if-it-passes" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40025" rel="noopener">"Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes</a>.</em></p>

After a year-long investigation, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced that it filed a civil antitrust lawsuit against Google; owned by, and nearly synonymous with, Alphabet (GOOG US).Not exactly a surprise since Google and its FAANG brethren have been in the crosshairs for a while. Still, the formality hits hard. Like getting dumped; you know it's coming, but the words still sting.DOJ's case is already quoted ad nauseam in the media, so I will regurgitate just a few small bits for context, then delve into my particular "angle" on this – i.e., how the U.S. Elections factor in.In Facebook parlance, "It's Complicated," but here is the gist:
Antitrust cases of this magnitude and complexity can be drawn out over many, many years.
Long-term, big-picture? Bad. Even just the overhang. Bad for Google, foreboding for others.
If you zoom in to a smaller near-term window, however… it's still bad. But maybe, a bit less.
The 2020 U.S. Elections could change the antitrust mood and direction, even if Trump wins.
Google will still have issues (there is bi-partisan thirst for its blood, just on different terms).
Still, post-elections, this likely goes from "bad and chaotic" to "bad, but somewhat orderly."
This is a quick take on what is still today's news, but the overall thought process is similar to "Delisting Deceitful Chinese Companies Act" Not a Slam Dunk and Has More Bark Than Bite if It Passes.

Google Antitrust Lawsuit: The 2020 Election Angle

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<p>As we head into earnings next week, we note attractive setups for Snap and Microsoft from data that came out this week, along with a very bullish presentation at Crowdstrike's user conference.</p>
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<p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p>
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As we head into earnings next week, we note attractive setups for Snap and Microsoft from data that came out this week, along with a very bullish presentation at Crowdstrike's user conference.




Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.




TMT Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/​​​​2020

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Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Amazon 3Q20: Amazon $6,000

Amazon's continued success is nothing new, but the pause in the stock grants longer term investors another bite at the apple at $3000...we think...

Aaron Gabin

AMD – RX6000 Series Should Make Intel and Nvidia Sweat and TSMC and Nintendo Smile a Touch

AMD's ability to suddenly match or better Intel and Nvidia in CPUs and GPUs bodes well for the company but we also feel that GPU developments are...

Mio Kato

3Q20 Best Bets: Mega Cap Wins

Some top of mind thinking about large cap TMT earnings heading into the thick of the meat grinder which is earnings season. We like secular...

Aaron Gabin

Google Antitrust Lawsuit: The 2020 Election Angle

What, precisely, the U.S. DOJ antitrust case will mean for Google, only time will tell. One thing is certain, however. Politics – particularly the ...

Kyle Rudden

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/2020

Datapoints supportive of upside to earnings for Microsoft and Snapchat this past week, plus an ever expanding TAM justifies Crowdstrike's valuation.

Aaron Gabin

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Amazon 3Q20: Amazon $6,000

Amazon's continued success is nothing new, but the pause in the stock grants longer term investors another bite at the apple at $3000...we think...

Aaron Gabin

AMD – RX6000 Series Should Make Intel and Nvidia Sweat and TSMC and Nintendo Smile a Touch

AMD's ability to suddenly match or better Intel and Nvidia in CPUs and GPUs bodes well for the company but we also feel that GPU developments are...

Mio Kato

3Q20 Best Bets: Mega Cap Wins

Some top of mind thinking about large cap TMT earnings heading into the thick of the meat grinder which is earnings season. We like secular...

Aaron Gabin

Google Antitrust Lawsuit: The 2020 Election Angle

What, precisely, the U.S. DOJ antitrust case will mean for Google, only time will tell. One thing is certain, however. Politics – particularly the ...

Kyle Rudden

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/​​​​2020

Datapoints supportive of upside to earnings for Microsoft and Snapchat this past week, plus an ever expanding TAM justifies Crowdstrike's valuation.

Aaron Gabin

TMT Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 10/16/2020