Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.</li>
<li>Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or "Generative Pre-trained Transformer."</li>
<li>Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).</li>
</ul>


First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or "Generative Pre-trained Transformer."
Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).


Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.</li><li>With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, AI is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.</li><li>We can expect to see more sophisticated AI applications and algorithms that can perform complex tasks and make decisions with human-like accuracy. </li></ul>

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.With an estimated market size of $137 billion in 2022, AI is projected to grow significantly to $1.8 trillion by 2030, a CAGR of 38%.We can expect to see more sophisticated AI applications and algorithms that can perform complex tasks and make decisions with human-like accuracy. 

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 - What's Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.</li><li>The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.</li><li>These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front line</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front lineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

<ul>
<li>OpenAI held its first developer conference on November 6th. The event announced the launch of OpenAI’s latest model and feature upgrades.</li>
<li>The latest OpenAI model, GPT-4 Turbo offers drastically lower costs, updated knowledge cutoff, better vision and voice support, and improved API.</li>
<li>Event unveiled custom chatbots called GPTs for specific applications, showcasing expanded domain knowledge. They'll be sold in a digital store, adding a new revenue stream for OpenAI.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI held its first developer conference on November 6th. The event announced the launch of OpenAI’s latest model and feature upgrades.
The latest OpenAI model, GPT-4 Turbo offers drastically lower costs, updated knowledge cutoff, better vision and voice support, and improved API.
Event unveiled custom chatbots called GPTs for specific applications, showcasing expanded domain knowledge. They'll be sold in a digital store, adding a new revenue stream for OpenAI.


<ul>
<li>Amazon’s cloud market share is roughly the sum of Microsoft and Google market share put together.  Microsoft’s market share is twice that of Google.</li>
<li>After stupendous growth over the last five years, cloud business continues to grow but at a slowing pace. Amid tech spend cuts, not every cloud vertical is set to grow.</li>
<li>Those cloud providers enabling AI workloads are primed to soar despite shrinking cloud budgets.</li>
</ul>


Amazon’s cloud market share is roughly the sum of Microsoft and Google market share put together.  Microsoft’s market share is twice that of Google.
After stupendous growth over the last five years, cloud business continues to grow but at a slowing pace. Amid tech spend cuts, not every cloud vertical is set to grow.
Those cloud providers enabling AI workloads are primed to soar despite shrinking cloud budgets.


Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown

United States

Microsoft Corporation operates as a software company. The Company offers applications, extra cloud storage, and advanced security solutions. Microsoft serves customers worldwide.

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Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

At the Ignite conference, Microsoft announced the Maia 100 AI Accelarator which is optimized for Azure. It will cater towards customer's AI demand....

Mint Finance

Top 10 Tech Trends in 2024 - What's Likely to Drive Tech Next Year

Artificial intelligence (AI). AI is already having a major impact on the tech sector, and this is only going to accelerate in 2024.

Water Tower Research

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &...

CMB International

Key Takeaways from OpenAI DevDay

OpenAI’s maiden developer conference featured excitement and anticipation previously seen in Apple keynotes. The event revealed major updates,...

Mint Finance

Not Every Cloud Has A Silver Lining: Some Cloud Offerings Are Set To Soar Despite Slowdown

IMPORTANT NOTE: Data points supporting two charts below are incorrect due to clerical errors. Sorry. Please refer to discussions below for the...

Mint Finance

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