New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 prices</li><li>Cold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plant</li><li>If the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive</li></ul>

First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 pricesCold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plantIf the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

<ul><li>Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%</li><li>August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealed</li><li>New GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices</li></ul>

Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealedNew GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Rising capital and operating costs was the main theme from Meridian Energy's (MEL) FY22 result, and we have reduced our target price -10cps (-2.2%) to NZ$4.45</li><li>No issues with the FY22 result or current hydro storage, a few issues with the cost outlook </li><li>Expect dividend growth but likely to be subdued if MEL meets its growth aspirations</li></ul>

Rising capital and operating costs was the main theme from Meridian Energy's (MEL) FY22 result, and we have reduced our target price -10cps (-2.2%) to NZ$4.45No issues with the FY22 result or current hydro storage, a few issues with the cost outlook Expect dividend growth but likely to be subdued if MEL meets its growth aspirations

Meridian Energy: Costs, Costs and More Costs — FY22 Result

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.</li>
<li>The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. </li>
<li>The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.
The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. 
The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    


Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

<ul><li>A huge generation month for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mighty-river-power/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MCY</a>, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winter</li><li>Climate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earnings</li><li>FY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus </li></ul>

A huge generation month for MCY, heavy inflows ease pressure on wholesale electricity prices heading into back half of winterClimate Change Commission suggest changes to lift the carbon price, note potential impact on renewable generators earningsFY22 reporting season — Earnings recover thanks to improved hydro generation, future developments to be the focus 

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

The cold snap in early September 2022 resulted in wild wholesale electricity price fluctuations, highlighting the market would benefit from more...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

The big wet hit August 2022, resulting in hydro storage hitting an all time high (170% of average) for this time of year, which in turn suppressed...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy: Costs, Costs and More Costs — FY22 Result

Rising capital and operating costs was the main theme from Meridian Energy's (MEL) FY22 result, and we have reduced our target price -10cps (-2.2%)...

Forsyth Barr

Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

Maintain holding or buy with the view of a potential rival bid or that the risk of the headcount test forces Skip/Stonepeak to further bump their...

Arun George

Power Points: Lakes Enjoy a Timely Top Up — August 2022

Lifting hydro storage +30pp to 123% of average; GNE and MCY reported solid sets of 4Q22 operating statistics; CEN and MEL posted decent finishes to...

Forsyth Barr

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