Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Rate cuts / In Depth: China set for interest rate cuts to support economy</li><li>Funds /: China’s star fund manager under investigation, sources say</li><li>Corruption /: Ex-chief of China Merchants Bank receives suspended death sentence</li></ul>

Rate cuts / In Depth: China set for interest rate cuts to support economyFunds /: China’s star fund manager under investigation, sources sayCorruption /: Ex-chief of China Merchants Bank receives suspended death sentence

CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy 

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vinfast-auto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36550:1" rel="noopener">VinFast (VFS US)</a>, the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vingroup-jsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13213:1" rel="noopener">Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN)</a>, commenced trading on the 14 August. And promptly took off. </li>
<li>VinFast's current market cap is ~4x <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/general-motors-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18811:1" rel="noopener">General Motors (GM US)</a>'s, twice that of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercedes-benz-group-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21602:1" rel="noopener">Mercedes-Benz (MBG GR)</a>'s, and the second-largest pure-play EV-maker after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla  (TSLA US)</a>.</li>
<li>Vingroup's holding in VinFast is worth 13x its market cap. This is not sustainable. </li>
</ul>



VinFast (VFS US), the EV arm of Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), commenced trading on the 14 August. And promptly took off. 
VinFast's current market cap is ~4x General Motors (GM US)'s, twice that of Mercedes-Benz (MBG GR)'s, and the second-largest pure-play EV-maker after Tesla  (TSLA US).
Vingroup's holding in VinFast is worth 13x its market cap. This is not sustainable. 


Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

Equity Analyst (Index Flows & Special Situations), Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst (Index Flows & Special Situations)

<ul>
<li>The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.</li>
</ul>


The ES50 Index is one of the most highly-tracked indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
The index changes will be confirmed after the close on 1st September 2023.
In this insight, we take a final look the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the upcoming index review.


Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai's 2Q23 results beat earnings street expectations by nearly 30%, thanks to AI server demand and gross margin rising.</li>
<li>Tightening China tech restrictions highlight Hon Hai's advantageous position for EV development.</li>
<li>Structural Long. Any weakness over worries about Apple/consumer products demand is an opportunity to accumulate. Investors shouldn't let cyclical expectations fluctuations blur their focus on Hon Hai's structural story.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai's 2Q23 results beat earnings street expectations by nearly 30%, thanks to AI server demand and gross margin rising.
Tightening China tech restrictions highlight Hon Hai's advantageous position for EV development.
Structural Long. Any weakness over worries about Apple/consumer products demand is an opportunity to accumulate. Investors shouldn't let cyclical expectations fluctuations blur their focus on Hon Hai's structural story.


Hon Hai AI Server Business Expected to Take Market Share 2H23E, Structural Long

Germany

Mercedes-Benz Group AG operates as an automobile company. The Company designs, manufactures, distributes, and sells a wide range of automotive products such as passenger cars, trucks, vans, and buses. Mercedes-Benz Group also provides financial and other services relating to its automotive businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy

Rate cuts / In Depth: China set for interest rate cuts to support economy China’s central bank is still widely expected to cut interest rates this...

Caixin Global

Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

Vingroup has undeniable scale advantages to maintain its property sector leadership. Yet a property recovery in what has been a largely unregulated...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

I expect Ferrari NV to be added to the ES50 index and Vonovia to be deleted from the ES50 index in September 2023.There could be 13+ days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

CX Daily: China Set for Interest Rate Cuts to Support Economy

Rate cuts / In Depth: China set for interest rate cuts to support economy China’s central bank is still widely expected to cut interest rates this...

Caixin Global

Vingroup: VinFast's Valuation Makes No Sense

Vingroup has undeniable scale advantages to maintain its property sector leadership. Yet a property recovery in what has been a largely unregulated...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard ES50 Sep 23: US$1.3bn Flow for Ferrari Likely; Announcement Soon

I expect Ferrari NV to be added to the ES50 index and Vonovia to be deleted from the ES50 index in September 2023.There could be 13+ days of volume...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Hon Hai AI Server Business Expected to Take Market Share 2H23E, Structural Long

Any weakness over worries about Apple/consumer products is an opportunity to accumulate. Investors shouldn't let cyclical expectations fluctuations...

Vincent Fernando, CFA