Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain our Outperform recommendation on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds. We remain optimistic about the company’s overall financial and business risks.</li>
<li>Revenues increased by 41.5% (FX-neutral: 113%) to $5.1 billion in 2Q24. However, the EBIT margin contracted significantly by 440 bps to 14.3% from 18.7%.</li>
<li>MELI ended the quarter with $976mn in net debt, down from $1.4 bn sequentially. Gross leverage remained relatively stable at 1.8x, and net leverage improved by 0.2x sequentially to 0.3x.  </li>
</ul>


We maintain our Outperform recommendation on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds. We remain optimistic about the company’s overall financial and business risks.
Revenues increased by 41.5% (FX-neutral: 113%) to $5.1 billion in 2Q24. However, the EBIT margin contracted significantly by 440 bps to 14.3% from 18.7%.
MELI ended the quarter with $976mn in net debt, down from $1.4 bn sequentially. Gross leverage remained relatively stable at 1.8x, and net leverage improved by 0.2x sequentially to 0.3x.  


MercadoLibre 2Q24: Fintech Credit Fuels Commerce Growth

<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds.  We are optimistic about MELI’s overall financial and business risks.</li>
<li>For EM investors, we prefer MELI 2.375% 2026 notes with a 10-30 bps compression potential. These bonds are trading wide compared to the Brazilian Sovereign and the benchmarks. </li>
<li>For US investors, MELI's risk-reward symmetry is especially compelling, given that 2031 bonds are trading wide by around 75 bps compared to global e-commerce and fintech peers. </li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds.  We are optimistic about MELI’s overall financial and business risks.
For EM investors, we prefer MELI 2.375% 2026 notes with a 10-30 bps compression potential. These bonds are trading wide compared to the Brazilian Sovereign and the benchmarks. 
For US investors, MELI's risk-reward symmetry is especially compelling, given that 2031 bonds are trading wide by around 75 bps compared to global e-commerce and fintech peers. 


MercadoLibre: A Credit Look into the Latin American Rising Star

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>MercadoLibre recently reported its earnings for Q1 of 2024.</li><li>The company has continued its robust trend, with Brazil and Mexico being their primary growth engines.</li><li>Both markets recorded growth in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of approximately 30% YoY. This expansion was propelled by their strategic investments in tech infrastructure, targeted marketing campaigns, and focus on enhancing user experience.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre recently reported its earnings for Q1 of 2024.The company has continued its robust trend, with Brazil and Mexico being their primary growth engines.Both markets recorded growth in Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of approximately 30% YoY. This expansion was propelled by their strategic investments in tech infrastructure, targeted marketing campaigns, and focus on enhancing user experience.

MercadoLibre Inc.: Expansion of Fintech Offerings

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Despite MercadoLibre’s non-benchmark status, ownership among active EM managers has reached new highs.</li>
<li>MercadoLibre has been the beneficiary of significant manager rotation over the last year, with 131 funds increasing weights and 29 opening new positions.</li>
<li>MercadoLibre is now the 8th largest holding on an average weight basis and has recently overtaken AIA Group as the largest overweight stock position across all regions.</li>
</ul>


Despite MercadoLibre’s non-benchmark status, ownership among active EM managers has reached new highs.
MercadoLibre has been the beneficiary of significant manager rotation over the last year, with 131 funds increasing weights and 29 opening new positions.
MercadoLibre is now the 8th largest holding on an average weight basis and has recently overtaken AIA Group as the largest overweight stock position across all regions.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24</li>
<li>Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward</li>
<li>Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco</li>
</ul>


We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24
Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward
Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco


Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

MercadoLibre 2Q24: Fintech Credit Fuels Commerce Growth

Maintaining Outperform recommendation on MercadoLibre, optimistic about the company's overall financial and business risks, despite the concerning...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre: A Credit Look into the Latin American Rising Star

Initiating coverage on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds due to an optimistic financial outlook and attractive risk-reward...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre Inc.: Expansion of Fintech Offerings

MercadoLibre recently reported its earnings for Q1 of 2024. The company has continued its robust trend, with Brazil and Mexico being their primary...

Baptista Research

MercadoLibre's Bullish Run Continues

MercadoLibre has been the beneficiary of significant manager rotation over the last year, overtaking AIA Group as the largest overweight stock...

Steven Holden

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MercadoLibre 2Q24: Fintech Credit Fuels Commerce Growth

Maintaining Outperform recommendation on MercadoLibre, optimistic about the company's overall financial and business risks, despite the concerning...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre: A Credit Look into the Latin American Rising Star

​Initiating coverage on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds due to an optimistic financial outlook and attractive risk-reward...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre Inc.: Expansion of Fintech Offerings

MercadoLibre recently reported its earnings for Q1 of 2024. The company has continued its robust trend, with Brazil and Mexico being their primary...

Baptista Research

MercadoLibre's Bullish Run Continues

MercadoLibre has been the beneficiary of significant manager rotation over the last year, overtaking AIA Group as the largest overweight stock...

Steven Holden

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

​Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...

Victor Galliano

Initiating coverage on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds due to an optimistic financial outlook and attractive risk-reward...

Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain negative...