Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>PDD diversified into ‘local life’ businesses in December 2023, but stopped these businesses within two weeks.</li>
<li>We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’ and the top performer Meituan is hard to fight.</li>
<li>We believe the stock price has an upside of 88% for year end 2024.</li>
</ul>


PDD diversified into ‘local life’ businesses in December 2023, but stopped these businesses within two weeks.
We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’ and the top performer Meituan is hard to fight.
We believe the stock price has an upside of 88% for year end 2024.


PDD (PDD US): Stopped Diversifying into ‘Local Life’ – A Rational Decision During Fast Growing

<ul>
<li>Chinese NEV (new energy vehicle) producers’ deliveries grew rapidly in 2023.</li>
<li>PDD closed most “local life” businesses, including hotel booking, movie ticketing, etc.</li>
<li>Jack Ma is no longer the controller of AliPay, the largest online payment app.</li>
</ul>


Chinese NEV (new energy vehicle) producers’ deliveries grew rapidly in 2023.
PDD closed most “local life” businesses, including hotel booking, movie ticketing, etc.
Jack Ma is no longer the controller of AliPay, the largest online payment app.


China Consumption Weekly (8 Jan 2024): BYD, Li Auto, PDD, AliPay, Mixue, Baidu

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Meituan, CNOOC, PICC P&amp;C, China Mobile, and outflows from Tencent, Xiaomi, HKEx, Wuxi Biologics, CCB.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight inflows into Meituan, CNOOC, PICC P&amp;C, China Mobile, and outflows from Tencent, Xiaomi, HKEx, Wuxi Biologics, CCB.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (December): Six Months of Inflows

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With a few weeks to go in the review period, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cgn-power-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:58:1" rel="noopener">CGN Power (1816 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK)</a> could be added to the ETF in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-beer-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:399:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23679:1" rel="noopener">Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK)</a> are potential deletions while there is another stock close to deletion zone.</li>
<li>There are a lot of shorts on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yankuang-energy-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:384:1" rel="noopener">Yankuang Energy</a> in terms of days of ADV and as a percentage of float while short interest on the other stocks is lower.</li>
</ul>


With a few weeks to go in the review period, CGN Power (1816 HK) and Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) could be added to the ETF in March.

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) are potential deletions while there is another stock close to deletion zone.
There are a lot of shorts on Yankuang Energy in terms of days of ADV and as a percentage of float while short interest on the other stocks is lower.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.
SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

PDD (PDD US): Stopped Diversifying into ‘Local Life’ – A Rational Decision During Fast Growing

PDD stopped ‘local life’ business just two weeks after it began. We believe PDD’s low price advantage does not work in Meituan-like ‘local life’...

Ming Lu

China Consumption Weekly (8 Jan 2024): BYD, Li Auto, PDD, AliPay, Mixue, Baidu

Chinese NEV producers’ deliveries grew rapidly in 2023. PDD closed most “local life” businesses. Jack Ma is no longer the controller of AliPay.

Ming Lu

Hong Kong Connect Flows (December): Six Months of Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for Meituan, CNOOC, PICC P&C, China Mobile, Tencent, Xiaomi, HKEx, Wuxi...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

There could be 2 changes for the FXI in March with CGN Power and Yankuang Energy replacing CR Beer and Wuxi Bio. Impact on the potential adds is...

Brian Freitas

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

Strong net buying in the first week of the year by SOUTHBOUND investors in HK Connect. Big buys in ETFs (they go back and forth every week), China...

Travis Lundy

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