Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paytm-mobile-solutions-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26149:1" rel="noopener">Paytm (PAYTM IN)</a>, India’s largest digital ecosystem for consumers and merchants has opened its book-building which will run from 08th November to the 10th of November. Paytm plans to raise INR183bn (approx. US$2.4bn) through the issuance of a mix of new shares (approx. INR83bn) and existing shares (INR00bn) at an indicative price range of INR2,080-2,150 per share. At the above price range, Paytm will have a market capitalisation of INR1,351.1-1,396.6bn and a post-money enterprise value of INR1,254.1-1,296.8bn.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;">Paytm IPO Details</td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;">@ INR2,080 </td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;">@ INR2,150</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;">Shares Outstanding Pre-IPO (m)</td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;">                                            609.7</td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;">                       609.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;">Offer Shares/New Shares Issued (m)</td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;">                                              39.9</td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;">                         38.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;">Total Shares Outstanding post-IPO (m)</td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;">                                            649.6</td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;">                       648.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;">Market Cap (INRm)</td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;">                                1,351,111.5</td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;">           1,393,788.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 192.0pt;">Post-Money Enterprise Value (INRm)</td>
<td style="width: 137.0pt;">                                1,254,116.5</td>
<td style="width: 87.0pt;">           1,296,793.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>Source: Company disclosures (offer shares calculated by dividing new share issue of INR83bn by the IPO price, Enterprise value after adjusting for net debt and net IPO proceeds (we have assumed underwriting and other costs to be about 7.25% of gross proceeds) and cash and debt as of June 2021)The company has already raised INR82.3bn from anchor investors (about 45.0% of the total offer) ahead of its IPO at a price of INR2,150 per share, and according to the company, its cornerstone investment was oversubscribed by more than 10x. These anchor investors include BlackRock, Vanguard, CPPIB, BirlaMF and GIC.Paytm plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on growing and strengthening its Paytm ecosystem, investing on new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships and for other general corporate purposes.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/442/original/image_54411635561636403842771.png?1636403843" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240442"></figure>Source: Company disclosures

Paytm (PAYTM IN), India’s largest digital ecosystem for consumers and merchants has opened its book-building which will run from 08th November to the 10th of November. Paytm plans to raise INR183bn (approx. US$2.4bn) through the issuance of a mix of new shares (approx. INR83bn) and existing shares (INR00bn) at an indicative price range of INR2,080-2,150 per share. At the above price range, Paytm will have a market capitalisation of INR1,351.1-1,396.6bn and a post-money enterprise value of INR1,254.1-1,296.8bn.

Paytm IPO Details
@ INR2,080 
@ INR2,150


Shares Outstanding Pre-IPO (m)
                                            609.7
                       609.7


Offer Shares/New Shares Issued (m)
                                              39.9
                         38.6


Total Shares Outstanding post-IPO (m)
                                            649.6
                       648.3


Market Cap (INRm)
                                1,351,111.5
           1,393,788.4


Post-Money Enterprise Value (INRm)
                                1,254,116.5
           1,296,793.4

Source: Company disclosures (offer shares calculated by dividing new share issue of INR83bn by the IPO price, Enterprise value after adjusting for net debt and net IPO proceeds (we have assumed underwriting and other costs to be about 7.25% of gross proceeds) and cash and debt as of June 2021)The company has already raised INR82.3bn from anchor investors (about 45.0% of the total offer) ahead of its IPO at a price of INR2,150 per share, and according to the company, its cornerstone investment was oversubscribed by more than 10x. These anchor investors include BlackRock, Vanguard, CPPIB, BirlaMF and GIC.Paytm plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO on growing and strengthening its Paytm ecosystem, investing on new business initiatives, acquisitions and strategic partnerships and for other general corporate purposes.Source: Company disclosures

Paytm IPO: More Expensive than Global Payment Giants and SOTP Suggests More Than 40% Discount

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Oct 29. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $10,647m (-14.9%) WoW and decreased by $4,955m (-7.5%) over the preceding four weeks. We note that the weekly short covers were the biggest YTD.  Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($2,707m, -27.4% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,644m, -32.5% WoW), Meituan/3690 HK($1,552m, -30.5% WoW), Byd Company Limited/1211 HK($1,448m, -11.2% WoW), Baba-Sw/9988 HK($1,366m, -11.9% WoW).<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/240/070/original/Hong_Kong_Market_Short_Position_Value_%28line%29_and_1W_Changes_%28bar%29_%28%24m%292021-11-06+10_03_41.png?1636256051" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="240070"></figure></section>

Hong Kong SFC reported aggregate short position as of Oct 29. The aggregate short value for equities decreased by $10,647m (-14.9%) WoW and decreased by $4,955m (-7.5%) over the preceding four weeks. We note that the weekly short covers were the biggest YTD.   Most shorted stocks by aggregate short value of positions are Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China, Ltd./2318 HK($2,707m, -27.4% WoW), Tencent Holdings Limited/700 HK($1,644m, -32.5% WoW), Meituan/3690 HK($1,552m, -30.5% WoW), Byd Company Limited/1211 HK($1,448m, -11.2% WoW), Baba-Sw/9988 HK($1,366m, -11.9% WoW).

HK Short Interest: Biggest Weekly Short Covers YTD

Equity Research in HK and Mainland China

Li Tang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) published two draft guidelines after market close last Friday, with the first document grouping internet platforms by their function and size, and the second statement listing their responsibilities, in order for internet platforms to standardise their operations, fulfil duties, and safeguard the rights of business operators and end customers on platforms. The public consultation of the two documents will last until 8 November.</li>
<li>We think the size-based grouping is more important than the second guideline which covers responsibilities of internet platforms, as the latter is not issuing new requirements.</li>
<li>We think this guideline is another milestone that sees changes to regulatory measures, refining actions to platforms on different business types and size in future.</li>
<li>We think the draft guidelines would work as a comprehensive checklist for internet platforms, especially the super large entities, which likely include <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (BABA US)</a>, Douyin, Alipay, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> .</li>
</ul>


The State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) published two draft guidelines after market close last Friday, with the first document grouping internet platforms by their function and size, and the second statement listing their responsibilities, in order for internet platforms to standardise their operations, fulfil duties, and safeguard the rights of business operators and end customers on platforms. The public consultation of the two documents will last until 8 November.
We think the size-based grouping is more important than the second guideline which covers responsibilities of internet platforms, as the latter is not issuing new requirements.
We think this guideline is another milestone that sees changes to regulatory measures, refining actions to platforms on different business types and size in future.
We think the draft guidelines would work as a comprehensive checklist for internet platforms, especially the super large entities, which likely include Alibaba Group (BABA US), Douyin, Alipay, and Meituan (3690 HK) .


SAMR Drafts Overarching Guideline to Regulate Internet Platforms

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MM), a surgical robot company, raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
</div>
<div>
MicroPort MedBot (MM) is a surgical robot company which designs, develops and commercializes surgical robots to assist surgeons in performing complex surgical procedures. It is the only company with a product portfolio covering the five major and fast-growing surgical specialties of laparoscopic, orthopedic, panvascular, natural orifice and percutaneous surgical procedures, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).
</div>
<div>
We have looked at the company’s background and products in our earlier notes:
</div>
<div>
<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-robodoc-pre-revenue-has-a-large-competitor-but-a-large-market-as-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - pre-revenue, has a large competitor but a large market as well</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-robodoc-phip-updates-and-a-look-at-its-largest-competitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - PHIP Updates and a Look at Its Largest Competitor, and</a></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-thoughts-on-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Thoughts on valuation</a></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/microport-medbot-pre-ipo-valuation-appears-reasonable-but-sentiment-will-weigh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Valuation Appears Reasonable but Sentiment Will Weigh</a></li>
</ul>
In this note we will talk about the trading updates.
</div>


Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MM), a surgical robot company, raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.


MicroPort MedBot (MM) is a surgical robot company which designs, develops and commercializes surgical robots to assist surgeons in performing complex surgical procedures. It is the only company with a product portfolio covering the five major and fast-growing surgical specialties of laparoscopic, orthopedic, panvascular, natural orifice and percutaneous surgical procedures, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S).


We have looked at the company’s background and products in our earlier notes:



MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - pre-revenue, has a large competitor but a large market as well
MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - RoboDoc - PHIP Updates and a Look at Its Largest Competitor, and
MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Thoughts on valuation
MicroPort MedBot Pre-IPO - Valuation Appears Reasonable but Sentiment Will Weigh

In this note we will talk about the trading updates.


MicroPort MedBot IPO Trading - Decent Demand But Upside Is Limited from the Top-End

Li Ning aims to raise around US$1bn via a top-up placement in Hong Kong. The company has been doing well over the past year and most of the past deals in the name have done well too.We have covered the previous placements in:<ul>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1">
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/li-ning-placement-viva-china-selling-small-deal-size-and-overhang-is-manageable" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37995" rel="noopener">Li Ning Placement - Viva China Selling - Small Deal Size and Overhang Is Manageable</a> </li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/li-ning-placement-expectations-adjusted-overhang-removed" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:11323" rel="noopener">Li Ning Placement - Expectations Adjusted, Overhang Removed</a></li>
<li dir="ltr" aria-level="1"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/li-ning-just-the-start-of-tpg-exit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:8239" rel="noopener">Li Ning - Just the Start of TPG Exit</a></li>
</ul>

Li Ning aims to raise around US$1bn via a top-up placement in Hong Kong. The company has been doing well over the past year and most of the past deals in the name have done well too.We have covered the previous placements in:

Li Ning Placement - Viva China Selling - Small Deal Size and Overhang Is Manageable 
Li Ning Placement - Expectations Adjusted, Overhang Removed
Li Ning - Just the Start of TPG Exit


Li Ning Placement - Momentum Remains Strong. Past Deals Have Done Well.

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meituan (3690 HK)

Paytm IPO: More Expensive than Global Payment Giants and SOTP Suggests More Than 40% Discount

With not so conservative assumptions, our SOTP valuation suggests that Paytm's shares are significantly overvalued at the IPO price range. At the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

HK Short Interest: Biggest Weekly Short Covers YTD

We high weekly short covers for Zhongsheng (881 HK), Ping An (2318 HK), Tencent (700 HK), and Meituan (3690 HK) based on the latest HK SFC short...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

SAMR Drafts Overarching Guideline to Regulate Internet Platforms

We think the draft guidelines would work as a comprehensive checklist for internet platforms, especially the super large entities

Li Tang

MicroPort MedBot IPO Trading - Decent Demand But Upside Is Limited from the Top-End

Shanghai MicroPort MedBot Group (MM), a surgical robot company, raised around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

Li Ning Placement - Momentum Remains Strong. Past Deals Have Done Well.

Li Ning aims to raise around US$1bn via a top-up placement in Hong Kong. The company has been doing well over the past year and most of the past...

Sumeet Singh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)