Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Alibaba Group Holding  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Alibaba’s share price is very close to its four year low due to the Tech fallout and regulatory concerns about the Chinese government; nonetheless, much bad news is now discounted</li>
<li>The share price weakness also reflects investor concerns about BABA’s potential NYSE delisting, following Didi’s NYSE delisting announcement last month under pressure from the Chinese authorities</li>
<li>Alibaba is very close to a long term PEG ratio of 1x based on consensus estimates, and trades on very modest earnings and EBITDA multiples given its continued growth potential</li>
</ul>


Alibaba’s share price is very close to its four year low due to the Tech fallout and regulatory concerns about the Chinese government; nonetheless, much bad news is now discounted
The share price weakness also reflects investor concerns about BABA’s potential NYSE delisting, following Didi’s NYSE delisting announcement last month under pressure from the Chinese authorities
Alibaba is very close to a long term PEG ratio of 1x based on consensus estimates, and trades on very modest earnings and EBITDA multiples given its continued growth potential


Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Meituan sell call at the top of the wedge near 300 and on the wedge support break is unfolding toward our downside targets at 232 (broken) and 205.</li>
<li>Buy volumes had been deteriorating on the way up and was a key input to short. Sell volumes have picked up.</li>
<li>205-200 the level to reduce/close short and where a long trade sets up. Need to tie this in with late December capitulation (global cycle).</li>
</ul>


Meituan sell call at the top of the wedge near 300 and on the wedge support break is unfolding toward our downside targets at 232 (broken) and 205.
Buy volumes had been deteriorating on the way up and was a key input to short. Sell volumes have picked up.
205-200 the level to reduce/close short and where a long trade sets up. Need to tie this in with late December capitulation (global cycle).


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine as of record day of December 17th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan and Tsingtao, as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi, and Great Wall Motor.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine as of record day of December 17th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight inflows into Tencent, Meituan and Tsingtao, as well as outflows from Wuxi Biologics, Xiaomi, and Great Wall Motor.


Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tsingtao Brewery

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

Equity Capital Markets

Chervon Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Chervon Holdings Limited (CHL) plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>CHL is the largest China-based global provider of power tools and outdoor power equipment (OPE). </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.</li>
</ul>


Chervon Holdings Limited (CHL) plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
CHL is the largest China-based global provider of power tools and outdoor power equipment (OPE). 
In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.


Chervon Holdings Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Patchy Disclosures Including About Its Largest Customers

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.</li>
<li>The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.</li>
<li>There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.</li>
</ul>


With the 2021 futures expiring in 2 weeks, the focus now shifts to the HSCEI dividend futures expiring in 2022 where we see a fair value of 240.76 DIPS.
The current market is trading very close to our fair value for 2022 but there are a lot of potential catalysts that could result in a big move lower.
There are fewer catalysts for the 2022 futures to move higher. The regulatory changes in China plus the HFCAA could lead to the 2023 futures trading cheaper to 2022.


HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Alibaba (BABA US): Looking to a Better ‘22

Alibaba's big discounts on valuations to its Tech peers, and reduced short interest, indicate that regulatory concerns and the risk of NYSE...

Victor Galliano

Meituan Short to Long Reverse Support

Meituan sell call at the top of the wedge and on the wedge support break is unfolding toward our downside target at 205 where we bottom fish for a...

Thomas Schroeder

Hong Kong Connect Flows: Chinese Buying Tsingtao Brewery

We highlight Hong Kong Connect inflows into Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Tsingtao Brewery (168 HK), and outflows from Wuxi Biologics (2269...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Chervon Holdings Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Patchy Disclosures Including About Its Largest Customers

Chervon Holdings Limited (CHL) plans to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we look at the not so pleasant aspects.

Sumeet Singh

HSCEI Dividend Futures: 2022 Close to Fair; Sell 22/23 Steepener

The HSCEI 2022 dividend futures are trading close to fair but there are a lot more negative catalysts that will have a bigger impact than positive...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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