Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>3690 HK/TCOM US: Online catering is robust in 2Q24, while online tourism diminishing quickly（+/-）</li>
<li>1024 HK: Source said Kuaishou's video generation LLM, Kling AI, has surpassed one million total application users.（+）</li>
<li>3690 HK:Meituan may launch food delivery service in Riyadh in September or October this year (+)</li>
</ul>


3690 HK/TCOM US: Online catering is robust in 2Q24, while online tourism diminishing quickly（+/-）
1024 HK: Source said Kuaishou's video generation LLM, Kling AI, has surpassed one million total application users.（+）
3690 HK:Meituan may launch food delivery service in Riyadh in September or October this year (+)


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, the coming week  to see two more listing, with both likely to do well.</li>
<li>On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows, with India, Taiwan and Australia joining in.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, the coming week  to see two more listing, with both likely to do well.
On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows, with India, Taiwan and Australia joining in.


ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) - Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.</li>
<li>However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD</li>
<li>We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported C4Q23 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 0.7%/1.4%; operating profit beat our estimate/consensus by 37.3%/48.6%, mainly due to order volume surprise, which is unsustainable in our view.
However, we think Meituan’s near term pressures did not change: (1) core biz OPM drop due to rising low-price orders and subsidies; (2) resuming competition from Eleme/Douyin/PDD
We maintain the stock as SELL rating but raise TP by HK$13 to HK$70 to factor in the loss cutting commitment in the community group buying biz.


[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Trung Nguyen

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The financial risk profile has strengthened further, with a large and growing net cash position coupled with robust leverage and coverage ratios. Liquidity is sound. We expect FY 2024 to be a better year for the company. We revise our Credit Bias on Meituan to “Positive” from "Stable", given the material increase in profitability and strong cash-flow generation following the pandemic. That said, we do not expect ratings upgrades in the near future.

  Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The financial risk profile has strengthened further, with a large and growing net cash position coupled with robust leverage and coverage ratios. Liquidity is sound. We expect FY 2024 to be a better year for the company.   We revise our Credit Bias on Meituan to “Positive” from "Stable", given the material increase in profitability and strong cash-flow generation following the pandemic. That said, we do not expect ratings upgrades in the near future. 

Meituan - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Greater China Equity Long/Short Analyst

Eric Chen

<ul>
<li>Recent newsflow suggests positive developments bode well for Meituan’s fundamental.</li>
<li>Yet 50% share price rebound since February low means it is largely in price and 4Q23 results will serve as a window for investors to read 2024 outlook.</li>
<li>We would take some profits from the rally and wait for better entry points.</li>
</ul>


Recent newsflow suggests positive developments bode well for Meituan’s fundamental.
Yet 50% share price rebound since February low means it is largely in price and 4Q23 results will serve as a window for investors to read 2024 outlook.
We would take some profits from the rally and wait for better entry points.


Meituan (3690 HK): Improving Fundamentals Already in Price

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Meituan (3690 HK)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

Online catering is thriving, while online tourism is declining. Kuaishou's video generation AI has over one million users. Meituan may expand food...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) - Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The...

Lucror Analytics

Meituan (3690 HK): Improving Fundamentals Already in Price

We see signs that its fundamentals are improving, but stock rally means they are largely in price. Investors will shrug off 4Q23 results and use it...

Eric Chen

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

​Online catering is thriving, while online tourism is declining. Kuaishou's video generation AI has over one million users. Meituan may expand food...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) - Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

[Meituan (3690 HK, SELL, TP HK$70) TP Change]: Margin Reflects Persistent Competitive Pressure

​Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Meituan - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Meituan has released FY 2023 numbers that were excellent in our view, with significantly improved profitability and solid cash generation. The...

Lucror Analytics

Meituan (3690 HK): Improving Fundamentals Already in Price

We see signs that its fundamentals are improving, but stock rally means they are largely in price. Investors will shrug off 4Q23 results and use it...

Eric Chen

Online catering is thriving, while online tourism is declining. Kuaishou's video generation AI has over one million users. Meituan may expand food...

Meituan beats revenue and profit estimates, but unsustainable order volume surprise. Near-term pressures remain, stock maintained as SELL with...