Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Auto LED orders set to increase significantly for a year, with Edison predicting double growth by 2025.</li><li>TSMC upgrades CoWoS technology to compete with 9x reticle sizes by 2027, showing continuous advancement in semiconductor manufacturing.</li><li>MiTAC plans to double capital expenditures in 2025 to diversify production under the new administration of Trump 2.0.</li></ul>

Auto LED orders set to increase significantly for a year, with Edison predicting double growth by 2025.TSMC upgrades CoWoS technology to compete with 9x reticle sizes by 2027, showing continuous advancement in semiconductor manufacturing.MiTAC plans to double capital expenditures in 2025 to diversify production under the new administration of Trump 2.0.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Dec-2024): Oct 2024: Notebook shipment update

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>Himax shares have performed relatively well during December but have still significantly underperformed other fabless Media IC names over the last six months.</li>
<li>Comparing results data across all names, Himax has exhibited relative strength in Display IC revenue thanks to its strong position supplying automakers with automotive display technology.</li>
<li>Himax will be speaking at Nomura's CES 2024 event and presenting its new edge AI camera products; This creates potential for positive news flow within two weeks.</li>
</ul>


Himax shares have performed relatively well during December but have still significantly underperformed other fabless Media IC names over the last six months.
Comparing results data across all names, Himax has exhibited relative strength in Display IC revenue thanks to its strong position supplying automakers with automotive display technology.
Himax will be speaking at Nomura's CES 2024 event and presenting its new edge AI camera products; This creates potential for positive news flow within two weeks.


Media IC Monitor: Himax Showing Relative Display Strength Thanks to Auto Exposure; CES Event Ahead

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.</li>
<li>MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.</li>
<li>Mediatek's target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.</li>
</ul>


For the upcoming revenue outlook, MediaTek Inc (2454 TT) is likely to reach an upside of around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.
MediaTek plans to release 12 million units of the Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F.
Mediatek's target markets include China, India, and Southeast Asia, with China remaining the primary market of focus.


MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).</li>
<li>Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.</li>
<li>Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.</li>
</ul>


Sept-24 result and Dec-24 guidance beat expectations by ~5%. Results show 3 important and sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G and AI penetration), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC).
Consensus expectations are moderately low. Stock valuations at average, reflecting doubts on Auto and PC addressable market and Arm lawsuits. QCOM management mentions “broad, well-established rights for custom CPU”.
Stock is up 4% during trading hours, another 7%  after results. Arm lawsuit is not simple / binary, with both parties overreaching, in our view. The stock has more upside.


Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  </li>
<li>AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.</li>
<li>TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. </li>
</ul>


Following AMD AI conference on 10 Oct, many question AMD's estimate of the AI Accelerators market reaching US$500bn by 2028 (from $45bn in 2023).  
AI Accelerators market value is increasing by 150% in 2024, reaching US$113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS capacity, we  think reasonable to expect 115% growth over 2025-26 or US$276bn in 2026.
TSMC makes all the chips. HBM is dominated by Hynix. Nvidia should remain the dominant vendor for years. AMD and Broadcom should grow faster than NVDA. Outsourcing: Alchip, Marvel, Mediatek. 


How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Dec-2024): Oct 2024: Notebook shipment update

October 2024 update: Strong notebook shipments, LED orders rising, TSMC advancing technology, MiTAC plans to diversify, SMIC driving China's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Media IC Monitor: Himax Showing Relative Display Strength Thanks to Auto Exposure; CES Event Ahead

We analyze reported data from Taiwan Media IC Designers, comparing relative revenue performance of Display, Mobile, Power, and other chip subsegments.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

MediaTek expects a 10% QoQ growth in 1Q24F and plans to release 12 million units of Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F. MediaTek's growth is targeting...

Patrick Liao

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

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Tech Supply Chain Tracker (03-Dec-2024): Oct 2024: Notebook shipment update

October 2024 update: Strong notebook shipments, LED orders rising, TSMC advancing technology, MiTAC plans to diversify, SMIC driving China's...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Media IC Monitor: Himax Showing Relative Display Strength Thanks to Auto Exposure; CES Event Ahead

We analyze reported data from Taiwan Media IC Designers, comparing relative revenue performance of Display, Mobile, Power, and other chip subsegments.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

MediaTek (2454.TT): The Revenue Is Likely Upside Around 10% QoQ in 1Q24F.

​MediaTek expects a 10% QoQ growth in 1Q24F and plans to release 12 million units of Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F. MediaTek's growth is targeting...

Patrick Liao

Qualcomm Sep-24: Nice Beat, Dec-24 Guide Small Beat. 3 Growth Factors: Smartphone AI, Automotive, PC

3 sustainable trends: smartphone premiumization (5G, AI), strong growth in Automotive and IoT (AI PC). Main concern is Arm lawsuit, not a simple...

Nicolas Baratte

How Big Is the AI Accelerator Market? AMD, Broadcom, Nvidia, SK Hynix, TSMC

AMD estimates AI Accelerators will reach US$500bn by 2028 ($45bn in 2023). Accelerators increased by 150% in 2024, $113bn. Based on TSMC CoWoS,...

Nicolas Baratte

MediaTek expects a 10% QoQ growth in 1Q24F and plans to release 12 million units of Dimensity 9000 series in 2024F. MediaTek's growth is targeting...