Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

Chandra Asri Petrochemical / Event-Driven

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The IDX has announced the changes to the LQ45 Index as a part of the February review. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medco-energi-internasional-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20844:1" rel="noopener">Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> have been added to the index, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> have been deleted from the index.We expect passive funds will need to buy a lot of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chandra-asri-petrochemical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2556:1" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ)</a> in terms of days of ADV, while there will be over 2 days of ADV to sell on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a>. The changes are effective after the close of trading on 29 January, so there are only 4 trading days before passive funds have to rebalance their portfolios. Active funds benchmarked to the LQ54 index will also trade over the next few days so as not to veer too far from their benchmark.

The LQ45 Index is a market cap weighted index of the 45 most liquid stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The LQ45 Index covers at least 70% of the stock market capitalization and transaction values in the Indonesia Stock Market.The IDX has announced the changes to the LQ45 Index as a part of the February review. Medco Energi (MEDC IJ) and Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) have been added to the index, while PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) and Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) have been deleted from the index.We expect passive funds will need to buy a lot of Chandra Asri Petrochemical (TPIA IJ) in terms of days of ADV, while there will be over 2 days of ADV to sell on PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ). The changes are effective after the close of trading on 29 January, so there are only 4 trading days before passive funds have to rebalance their portfolios. Active funds benchmarked to the LQ54 index will also trade over the next few days so as not to veer too far from their benchmark.

LQ45 Index Rebalance: TPIA, MEDC In; SCMA, SRIL Out

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

This month, we review the developments of 2020, an extraordinary year from an investor’s perspective, and give our outlook for the year ahead.  The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  This month, we review the developments of 2020, an extraordinary year from an investor’s perspective, and give our outlook for the year ahead.    The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - 2020 In Review And 2021 Outlook - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Book - December 2020 - Lucror Analytics

We view Medco Energi as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, owing to its small size, appetite for acquisitions and moderate to high leverage. In addition, the exploration business requires heavy capex. The company’s earnings are exposed to oil price volatility, albeit the risks are mitigated to a degree by its use of fixed-price gas contracts. Moreover, production cash costs are low, which reduces the break-even price. Medco appears to have good access to financing from domestic banks, as well as bond and equity markets. Our fundamental Credit Bias on Medco is "Negative", on account of the oil price volatility and potential for further earnings deterioration. Moreover, the company continues to generate negative FCF due to its heavy capex. Positively, leverage has remained largely stable, thanks to recent equity issuances. It also has adequate liquidity for at least the next one year. Still, Medco’s credit profile will hinge on the outlook for oil prices over the medium term.  We view Medco's corporate governance as "Weak" on the LAGA scale, as the company is controlled by the Panigoro family with a 50.6% stake. That said, we like the separation of duties between the President Commissioner, President Director and CEO. Related-party transactions are not material. Most of these transactions were one-off in nature, whereby Medco sold several non-core businesses to parent Medco Daya Abadi Lestari.

  We view Medco Energi as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, owing to its small size, appetite for acquisitions and moderate to high leverage. In addition, the exploration business requires heavy capex. The company’s earnings are exposed to oil price volatility, albeit the risks are mitigated to a degree by its use of fixed-price gas contracts. Moreover, production cash costs are low, which reduces the break-even price. Medco appears to have good access to financing from domestic banks, as well as bond and equity markets.   Our fundamental Credit Bias on Medco is "Negative", on account of the oil price volatility and potential for further earnings deterioration. Moreover, the company continues to generate negative FCF due to its heavy capex. Positively, leverage has remained largely stable, thanks to recent equity issuances. It also has adequate liquidity for at least the next one year. Still, Medco’s credit profile will hinge on the outlook for oil prices over the medium term.    We view Medco's corporate governance as "Weak" on the LAGA scale, as the company is controlled by the Panigoro family with a 50.6% stake. That said, we like the separation of duties between the President Commissioner, President Director and CEO. Related-party transactions are not material. Most of these transactions were one-off in nature, whereby Medco sold several non-core businesses to parent Medco Daya Abadi Lestari. 

Medco Energi - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Macau gaming sector, including our market outlook, concession renewals and a peer comparison of the four companies under our coverage. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Macau gaming sector, including our market outlook, concession renewals and a peer comparison of the four companies under our coverage.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

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Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)

LQ45 Index Rebalance: TPIA, MEDC In; SCMA, SRIL Out

TPIA and MEDC have been included in the LQ45 Index while SCMA and SRIL have been deleted. The changes are effective at the close on 29 January and...

Brian Freitas

Asia HY Monthly - 2020 In Review And 2021 Outlook - Lucror Analytics

This month, we review the developments of 2020, an extraordinary year from an investor’s perspective, and give our outlook for the year ahead. ...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Book - December 2020 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Book for the month of December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also...

Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi - Tear Sheet - Lucror Analytics

We view Medco Energi as “High Risk” on the LARA scale, owing to its small size, appetite for acquisitions and moderate to high leverage. In...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Macau Gaming Update - Lucror Analytics

In this month’s “In-Focus” section, we provide an update on the Macau gaming sector, including our market outlook, concession renewals and a peer...

Lucror Analytics

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