External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect MEDC to book inline 2Q24 earnings, backed by AMMN’s rising contribution on the back of higher volume and ASP.</li><li>2H24 outlook: Lower production from maintenance, potentially offset by AMMN.</li><li>We resume coverage with a Buy rating but with a lower SOTP-based TP of Rp1,700 (Rp1,950 prev.), reflecting our lower FY24-25E earnings est.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect MEDC to book inline 2Q24 earnings, backed by AMMN’s rising contribution on the back of higher volume and ASP.2H24 outlook: Lower production from maintenance, potentially offset by AMMN.We resume coverage with a Buy rating but with a lower SOTP-based TP of Rp1,700 (Rp1,950 prev.), reflecting our lower FY24-25E earnings est.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Medco Energi International - Expect 2Q24 Earnings Support from AMMN Amidst Flattish Oil Price

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20844'>Medco Energi</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Medco Energi

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.<ul><li><a href='#lucror-entity-29012'>Adani Green Energy</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8258'>Japfa Comfeed Indonesia</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-20844'>Medco Energi</a></li><li><a href='#lucror-entity-8550'>Pakuwon Jati</a></li></ul>

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.Adani Green EnergyJapfa Comfeed IndonesiaMedco EnergiPakuwon Jati

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

Medco Energi's FY 2023 numbers were acceptable in our view. The top line and margins softened, weighed down by reduced oil & gas (O&G) selling prices and slightly lower production volumes. FCF was negative and net debt increased, owing to the acquisition of a 20% stake in two O&G blocks at Oman in December. While leverage weakened, Net Debt/EBITDA remained acceptable at 2.5x at FYE 2023. We believe earnings may continue declining in FY 2024, as management has guided for production to decrease further (mainly driven by lower working interest at Corridor Block PSC). Still, we believe Medco can generate slightly positive FCF in FY 2024 if it does not undertake new acquisitions. Liquidity is sound, and we note positively that the company’s sizeable equity stake in copper and gold mining JV Amman Mineral Internasional (listed on IDX) would provide it with meaningful financial flexibility if needed. We revise our LARA to “Medium Risk” from “High Risk”, considering Medco’s longer reserve life and track record of proactive debt management.

  Medco Energi's FY 2023 numbers were acceptable in our view. The top line and margins softened, weighed down by reduced oil & gas (O&G) selling prices and slightly lower production volumes. FCF was negative and net debt increased, owing to the acquisition of a 20% stake in two O&G blocks at Oman in December. While leverage weakened, Net Debt/EBITDA remained acceptable at 2.5x at FYE 2023.   We believe earnings may continue declining in FY 2024, as management has guided for production to decrease further (mainly driven by lower working interest at Corridor Block PSC). Still, we believe Medco can generate slightly positive FCF in FY 2024 if it does not undertake new acquisitions. Liquidity is sound, and we note positively that the company’s sizeable equity stake in copper and gold mining JV Amman Mineral Internasional (listed on IDX) would provide it with meaningful financial flexibility if needed.   We revise our LARA to “Medium Risk” from “High Risk”, considering Medco’s longer reserve life and track record of proactive debt management. 

Medco Energi - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

<ul><li>With the completion IPO of AMMN, we see this reveals the value that hidden in MEDC.</li><li>AMMN currently trades at IDR130 tn mkt cap and MEDC owned 21% which translates to IDR27 tn which was higher compared to MEDC current mkt cap.</li><li>We also believes that MEDC oil &amp; gas production will remain solid in 2023 with the support of Corridor block. Maintain Buy with higher TP of IDR1,300/sh.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With the completion IPO of AMMN, we see this reveals the value that hidden in MEDC.AMMN currently trades at IDR130 tn mkt cap and MEDC owned 21% which translates to IDR27 tn which was higher compared to MEDC current mkt cap.We also believes that MEDC oil &amp; gas production will remain solid in 2023 with the support of Corridor block. Maintain Buy with higher TP of IDR1,300/sh.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ) - It’s a bargain!

Indonesia

Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk PT provides coal mining activities. The Company offers services including general surveying, exploration, exploitation, production, transportation, and marketing of coal.

PT Bumi Resources Tbk operates in the exploration and exploitation of coal deposits, including coal mining, and oil exploration activities. The Company offers its services to cement companies and power plants, as well as middle and large scale industrial companies that involve in chemical, mine, and textile businesses. Bumi Resources also has interest in mining gold, silver and copper.

PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk operates as a coal exploration and mining company that provides energy and electricity support. The Company operates in Indonesia and supplies coal to the world energy market.

PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk produces liquefied petroleum gas.

PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk, (GEMS) operates as a holding company. Through its  s ubsidiaries, the Company mines for coal. GEMS' supplies paper mills and export energy markets including China, India, Thailand, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.

PT ABM Investama Tbk invests in energy resources, energy services and energy infrastructure.  Through subsidiaries, the Company mines coal; offers mining services; offers logistics and warehousing services; generates electricity; and manufactures equipment for the mining, oil and natural gas, electricity generation, and transportation industries.

PT Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk is a coal mining company in Kalimatan.

PT Indika Energy Tbk is an energy company. The Company provides energy services, energy resources and infrastructure, primarily in the areas of coal production, engineering, procurement and construction services and power generation services.

PT Rukun Raharja Tbk operates transmission lines and distributes natural gas to industry.

Teekay Tankers Ltd. provides oil transportation services through a fleet of mid-size tankers, including Suezmax and Aframax crude oil tankers and Long Range 2 product tankers. The Company's vessels are typically employed through a mix of short- or medium-term fixed-rate time charter contracts and spot tanker market trading.

DHT Holdings, Inc. is an independent crude oil tanker company.  The company provides transportation services to oil companies and trades internationally with a fleet of crude oil tankers in the VLCC, Aframax and Suezmax segments.

Oriental Energy Co., Ltd. manufactures, processes and distributes liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).  The Company produces LPG using oilfield associated gases, mainly including propane and butane. Zhangjiagang's products are mainly used as industrial gas, as well as chemical raw materials.

Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co., Ltd. produces and markets coal and fertilizers.

Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co., Ltd. operates in coal mining and processing.

Sitio Royalties Corp. focuses on investing in mineral and royalty interests in oil basins. The Company acquires, owns, and manages mineral and royalty interests across a diverse set of operators in unconventional basins within the United States with a specific focus on the Permian Basin.

Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co., Ltd. produces and sells coal.  The Company's products are used in metallurgy, power generation, chemical and construction material industries.

Beijing Haohua Energy Resource (601101 CH)

Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, including lube oil base stocks, aviation turbine fuel,  propane, propylene and polybutene feedstock.  The Group operates two refineries, the Cauvery Basin Refinery and the Manali Refinery.

SFL Corporation Ltd. owns and charters out ships. The Company operates fleet includes crude oil tankers, bulk and ore vessels, dry bulk carriers, container ships, and jack up oil rigs. SFL serves customers worldwide.

Oil & Gas Development Co. Ltd. explores and develops oil and natural gas properties in Pakistan.

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

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Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)

Medco Energi International - Expect 2Q24 Earnings Support from AMMN Amidst Flattish Oil Price

We expect MEDC to book inline 2Q24 earnings, backed by AMMN’s rising contribution on the back of higher volume and ASP. 2H24 outlook: Lower...

BRI Danareksa Research

Morning Views Asia: Medco Energi

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Medco Energi, Pakuwon Jati

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region,...

Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi - Earnings Flash - FY 2023 Results - Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi's FY 2023 numbers were acceptable in our view. The top line and margins softened, weighed down by reduced oil & gas (O&G)...

Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ) - It’s a bargain!

AMMN currently trades at IDR130 tn mkt cap and MEDC owned 21% which translates to IDR27 tn which was higher compared to MEDC current mkt cap.

BRI Danareksa Research

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