Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> a US-headquartered women-centric dating app is expected to complete its IPO shortly. IPO price and valuation are well covered by Insight provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/douglas-kim" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:342" rel="noopener">Douglas Kim</a> in his Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bumble-inc-ipo-you-ve-got-mail-fast-forward-23-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47950" rel="noopener">Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years</a> .</p>
<p>In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers. Our on-ground surveillance suggests this is one market and region to watch out and can potentially be one of the key drivers of revenue growth in the future.</p>

Bumble (BMBL US) a US-headquartered women-centric dating app is expected to complete its IPO shortly. IPO price and valuation are well covered by Insight provider Douglas Kim in his Insight Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years .
In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers. Our on-ground surveillance suggests this is one market and region to watch out and can potentially be one of the key drivers of revenue growth in the future.

Bumble (BMBL US) | Swipe Right to Access World's Second-Largest Market

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumble-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31309:1" rel="noopener">Bumble (BMBL US)</a> is one of the leading dating apps in the US. <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/08/with-a-higher-ipo-valuation-is-bumble-aiming-for-match-coms-revenue-multiple/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bumble</a> has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price and at these prices, the company could raise $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion in this IPO. The IPO price range was recently raised from the previous IPO price range of $28 to $30 per share. The number of shares being offered in the IPO was raised from 34.5 million to 45 million (excluding the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares). Including the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares, the company could raise nearly $2 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. </p>

Bumble (BMBL US) is one of the leading dating apps in the US. Bumble has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price and at these prices, the company could raise $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion in this IPO. The IPO price range was recently raised from the previous IPO price range of $28 to $30 per share. The number of shares being offered in the IPO was raised from 34.5 million to 45 million (excluding the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares). Including the underwriters' option of 6.75 million shares, the company could raise nearly $2 billion at the high end of the IPO price range. 

Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Post 3Q20, we closed out our note saying, “We think COVID will result in more headwinds then tailwinds, which will provide a headwind to guidance, and what we think will be an entry point come February when 2021 guidance is given. By then we will be 3 months closer to vaccines and 3 months closer to last years’ Q2 which was horrendous due to the initial restrictions and gives a great setup for an explosive 2Q21 quarter.”</p><p>Match  pulled back 8% on earnings and is down 11% in two weeks. At 36x forward EV/EBITDA, we are at the same valuation Match was after 2Q and 3Q…except we are now one quarter away from entering a period of accelerating EBITDA growth. Guidance does not contemplate a full return to “normal” by the back half of 2021…which means guidance is likely too conservative. Entry points on one of the great business models in TMT are few and far between. Its time to buy Match.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Post 3Q20, we closed out our note saying, “We think COVID will result in more headwinds then tailwinds, which will provide a headwind to guidance, and what we think will be an entry point come February when 2021 guidance is given. By then we will be 3 months closer to vaccines and 3 months closer to last years’ Q2 which was horrendous due to the initial restrictions and gives a great setup for an explosive 2Q21 quarter.”Match  pulled back 8% on earnings and is down 11% in two weeks. At 36x forward EV/EBITDA, we are at the same valuation Match was after 2Q and 3Q…except we are now one quarter away from entering a period of accelerating EBITDA growth. Guidance does not contemplate a full return to “normal” by the back half of 2021…which means guidance is likely too conservative. Entry points on one of the great business models in TMT are few and far between. Its time to buy Match.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<p>We wanted to follow up on Match given we advocated it from the short side early in the year, and closed the short in May before the spinout. Is now the time to re-engage?</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We wanted to follow up on Match given we advocated it from the short side early in the year, and closed the short in May before the spinout. Is now the time to re-engage?Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

<div><p>This week, a bunch of Apple related news caught our eye, and the many companies that would be impacted by changes to the appstore, privacy controls, and a new subscription service.</p></div><div><div><div><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div></div></div>

This week, a bunch of Apple related news caught our eye, and the many companies that would be impacted by changes to the appstore, privacy controls, and a new subscription service.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

TMT (AAPL) Weekly:  3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 8/14/​​​​2020

United States

Match Group, Inc. is a dating service provider. The Company offers diverse portfolio of apps and services which enables connections across the spectrum of age, race, gender, sexual orientation, and backgrounds. Match Group serves customers worldwide.

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Match Group (MTCH US)

Bumble (BMBL US) | Swipe Right to Access World's Second-Largest Market

In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers.

Pranav Bhavsar

Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years

Bumble (BMBL US) is one of the leading dating apps in the US. Bumble has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price. The company could raise...

Douglas Kim

Match 4Q20 Earnings: Hook It Up

Match has sold off on 4Q20 earnings based on overly conservative 2021 guidance. We would be buyers on this selloff as 2021 sets up for a strong...

Aaron Gabin

Match 3Q20: Love Rollercoaster

We re-evaluate Match Group as we head back into pandemic-driven lockdowns. We thought it was a short a year ago, but now think its (going to be) an...

Aaron Gabin

TMT (AAPL) Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 8/14/2020

This week, a bunch of Apple related news caught our eye, and the many companies that would be impacted by changes to the appstore, privacy...

Aaron Gabin

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Bumble (BMBL US) | Swipe Right to Access World's Second-Largest Market

In this Insight, we look at the less disclosed and understood Bumble's India operations along with exploring the revenue potential the market offers.

Pranav Bhavsar

Bumble Inc IPO - "You've Got Mail" Fast Forward 23 Years

Bumble (BMBL US) is one of the leading dating apps in the US. Bumble has an IPO price range of $37 to $39 per share price. The company could raise...

Douglas Kim

Match 4Q20 Earnings: Hook It Up

Match has sold off on 4Q20 earnings based on overly conservative 2021 guidance. We would be buyers on this selloff as 2021 sets up for a strong...

Aaron Gabin

Match 3Q20: Love Rollercoaster

We re-evaluate Match Group as we head back into pandemic-driven lockdowns. We thought it was a short a year ago, but now think its (going to be) an...

Aaron Gabin

TMT (AAPL) Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 8/14/​​​​2020

This week, a bunch of Apple related news caught our eye, and the many companies that would be impacted by changes to the appstore, privacy...

Aaron Gabin

TMT (AAPL) Weekly: 3 Things that Stood Out The Week of 8/14/2020