Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> 's dealers are optimistic, expecting easing supply, new launches and the Maruti brand promise to drive back some of the lost market share. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> is gaining when it comes to fighting with its big brother <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hyundai-motor-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:155:1" rel="noopener">Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS)</a>. </li>
<li>There is a set of customers that now prefers Indian brands giving a good tailwind for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) 's dealers are optimistic, expecting easing supply, new launches and the Maruti brand promise to drive back some of the lost market share. 

Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) is gaining when it comes to fighting with its big brother Hyundai Motor Co (005380 KS). 
There is a set of customers that now prefers Indian brands giving a good tailwind for Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) &amp; Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN). 


India Channel Insight #39 | Maruti, Hyundai

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>After a gap of almost three years, MSIL’s product pipeline has just kick- started with an exciting line-up of launches over the next 2-2.5 years.</li><li>It has launched upgraded Celerio, and mid-cycle refresh of Baleno as well as XL6.</li><li>Going forward, MSIL would be launching: new models (four SUVs), platform upgrade (Alto) and mid-cycle refresh (Brezza).</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

After a gap of almost three years, MSIL’s product pipeline has just kick- started with an exciting line-up of launches over the next 2-2.5 years.It has launched upgraded Celerio, and mid-cycle refresh of Baleno as well as XL6.Going forward, MSIL would be launching: new models (four SUVs), platform upgrade (Alto) and mid-cycle refresh (Brezza).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki - Return of Product Lifecycle to Drive Market Share

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 2 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Demand Outlook: Demand momentum remains stable with a current order book of 320k units vs 264k units in Dec’21.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Semiconductor Shortages: The production during FY22 was constrained by a global shortage in the supply of electronic components because of which an estimated ~2.7 Lc units could not be produced.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Input costs: The management noted that while precious metal prices have cooled off, base metal prices have increased (steel in particular) and will lead to margin pressures in H1FY23E.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Demand Outlook: Demand momentum remains stable with a current order book of 320k units vs 264k units in Dec’21.Semiconductor Shortages: The production during FY22 was constrained by a global shortage in the supply of electronic components because of which an estimated ~2.7 Lc units could not be produced.Input costs: The management noted that while precious metal prices have cooled off, base metal prices have increased (steel in particular) and will lead to margin pressures in H1FY23E.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki - Beat on EBITDA; Growth Outlook Remains Strong

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>PVs – supply chain constraints to persist; demand holding strong: We expect PV volume to be slightly lower on MoM basis due to supply<br>side issues and higher monthly base.</li></ul><div><div><div><ul><li>2Ws – demand revival remains muted: Domestic 2W dispatches are expected to improve on MoM basis, albeit at a slower pace, led by opening up of schools &amp; offices, beginning of marriage season and improving rural economics.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Tractors – moderating growth on a high base: We expect tractor demand to ease due to a high base.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

PVs – supply chain constraints to persist; demand holding strong: We expect PV volume to be slightly lower on MoM basis due to supply side issues and higher monthly base.2Ws – demand revival remains muted: Domestic 2W dispatches are expected to improve on MoM basis, albeit at a slower pace, led by opening up of schools &amp; offices, beginning of marriage season and improving rural economics.Tractors – moderating growth on a high base: We expect tractor demand to ease due to a high base.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

India Channel Insight #39 | Maruti, Hyundai

Going into FY23, the competitive dynamics in the Indian PV industry is changing. Maruti is expected to leverage its brand promise, Kia is eating...

Pranav Bhavsar

Screening for GEMs: June 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Maruti Suzuki - Beat on EBITDA; Growth Outlook Remains Strong

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) Q4FY22 performance came in ahead of our expectations on the margin front, aided by operating leverage benefits,...

Axis Direct

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

Based on our channel checks, we saw some improvement in 2W demand in April’22 while demand in CV and PV segments continued to remain robust.

Nirmal Bang

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52-week Range

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India Channel Insight #39 | Maruti, Hyundai

Going into FY23, the competitive dynamics in the Indian PV industry is changing. Maruti is expected to leverage its brand promise, Kia is eating...

Pranav Bhavsar

Maruti Suzuki - Return of Product Lifecycle to Drive Market Share

Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)’s product pipeline has just kick-started with upgrades of key models and it is on the cusp of launching new models.

Motilal Oswal

Screening for GEMs: June 2022

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

Maruti Suzuki - Beat on EBITDA; Growth Outlook Remains Strong

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) Q4FY22 performance came in ahead of our expectations on the margin front, aided by operating leverage benefits,...

Axis Direct

Automobile Sales Estimates – 2Ws Rising from Dust; Demand Outlook for PVs and CVs Positive

Based on our channel checks, we saw some improvement in 2W demand in April’22 while demand in CV and PV segments continued to remain robust.

Nirmal Bang