Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>With green shoots in the underlying PV and CV segments, the Indian vehicle financing disbursals (FY22: ~US$ 42bn) is poised to ride a secular 15%+ CAGR over the next 4 years</li><li>New PV financing (US$ 20bn; +17% CAGR) is benefitting from rising premiumisation; yet remains thin on profitability due to elevated competitive intensity, especially in salaried class</li><li>Used car financing (US$ 4bn; +32% CAGR) is emerging as a sunrise sector, offering potential for high growth as well as high profitability (&gt;2% ROA), benefitting from rising formalisation and increasing finance penetration</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

With green shoots in the underlying PV and CV segments, the Indian vehicle financing disbursals (FY22: ~US$ 42bn) is poised to ride a secular 15%+ CAGR over the next 4 yearsNew PV financing (US$ 20bn; +17% CAGR) is benefitting from rising premiumisation; yet remains thin on profitability due to elevated competitive intensity, especially in salaried classUsed car financing (US$ 4bn; +32% CAGR) is emerging as a sunrise sector, offering potential for high growth as well as high profitability (&gt;2% ROA), benefitting from rising formalisation and increasing finance penetrationContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Vehicle Financing - Secular Opportunity Meets Cyclical Tailwinds

Asia Consumer Research, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Asia Consumer Research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
Tatas are scripting India's early journey in electric cars - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> accounted for 87% of the 8077 electric cars sold in Q1FY23 (1605 units in Q1FY22).</li>
<li>The rapid roll-out of charging infrastructure across the country by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-power-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15618:1" rel="noopener">Tata Power (TPWR IN)</a> and the success of Tata's electric car (compact SUV). Tata Nexon EV, are key factors. </li>
<li>Demand and infrastructure for electric cars seem to be in place but market growth is restricted by a lack of choice/adequate supply in the popular price range (&lt;USD 20K).</li>
</ul>



Tatas are scripting India's early journey in electric cars - Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) accounted for 87% of the 8077 electric cars sold in Q1FY23 (1605 units in Q1FY22).
The rapid roll-out of charging infrastructure across the country by Tata Power (TPWR IN) and the success of Tata's electric car (compact SUV). Tata Nexon EV, are key factors. 
Demand and infrastructure for electric cars seem to be in place but market growth is restricted by a lack of choice/adequate supply in the popular price range (&lt;USD 20K).


India EV Sector: Electric Cars in Demand, but Limited Options. Tata's Nexon EV Leads

<div><ul><li>Q1 margin pressure likely to be lower than earlier envisaged - We refrain from comparing YoY numbers, given the low base of last year and, hence, compare numbers on a QoQ basis for all companies.</li><li>Outliers expected within our coverage universe in Q1 - We expect M&amp;M to be the best performer in Q1, with an estimated 41% growth in earnings QoQ.</li><li>Q1 estimates for ancillaries - At the moment, we only have two ancillary companies under coverage.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q1 margin pressure likely to be lower than earlier envisaged - We refrain from comparing YoY numbers, given the low base of last year and, hence, compare numbers on a QoQ basis for all companies.Outliers expected within our coverage universe in Q1 - We expect M&amp;M to be the best performer in Q1, with an estimated 41% growth in earnings QoQ.Q1 estimates for ancillaries - At the moment, we only have two ancillary companies under coverage.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos - Margin Pressure to Be Lower than Earlier Envisaged

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><ul><li>Maruti: We expect Maruti’s earnings to be relatively strong on YoY basis due to a lower base, but we expect a slight decline of 4% QoQ due to muted volume (hit by chip shortages) and pressure on profitability</li><li>Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (M&amp;M): M&amp;M’s reported Auto segment volume increased by ~46% YoY, driven by a good response to XUV 700 (new Launch), good CV volume and good recovery in tractor volume.</li><li>Hero MotoCorp: We expect Hero MotoCorp’s revenue to grow by 15% QoQ, led by 17% rise in volume.</li></ul></div>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti: We expect Maruti’s earnings to be relatively strong on YoY basis due to a lower base, but we expect a slight decline of 4% QoQ due to muted volume (hit by chip shortages) and pressure on profitabilityMahindra &amp; Mahindra (M&amp;M): M&amp;M’s reported Auto segment volume increased by ~46% YoY, driven by a good response to XUV 700 (new Launch), good CV volume and good recovery in tractor volume.Hero MotoCorp: We expect Hero MotoCorp’s revenue to grow by 15% QoQ, led by 17% rise in volume.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto/Auto-Ancillary Sector - Spillover of RM Inflation to Impact Margins

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Stick with Japan & India. $ACWI bounce at $86 would be ideal for the bullish case (i.e., establishing a higher low), but we could easily see a test...

Vermilion Research

Vehicle Financing - Secular Opportunity Meets Cyclical Tailwinds

With green shoots in the underlying PV and CV segments, the Indian vehicle financing disbursals (FY22: ~US$ 42bn) is poised to ride a secular 15%+...

HDFC Securities

India EV Sector: Electric Cars in Demand, but Limited Options. Tata's Nexon EV Leads

India's electric car market is in an early stage of accelerated growth - currently driven predominantly by Tata Motors which has successfully...

Devi Subhakesan

Autos - Margin Pressure to Be Lower than Earlier Envisaged

We refrain from comparing YoY numbers, given the low base of last year and, hence, compare numbers on a QoQ basis for all companies.

HDFC Securities

Auto/Auto-Ancillary Sector - Spillover of RM Inflation to Impact Margins

We expect 1QFY23 earnings of Auto & Auto Ancillary companies in our coverage universe to grow significantly over a lower base of 1QFY22.

Nirmal Bang

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