Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P Small Cap 600 Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" </li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and last week's Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled "Buy the Pullback Again" 
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.


Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Marriott International / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.</li>
<li>Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.</li>
<li>The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.</li>
</ul>


While we are not yet out of the woods, we are seeing several encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites.
Additionally, we are starting to see improvement within the Consumer Discretionary (hotels/resorts, casinos, leisure, cruises), Transportation (airlines), and Materials (metals/mining) Sectors -- we highlight several attractive stocks to buy.
The fact that more areas are becoming attractive (and not just Energy and Financials) is a step in the right direction for bulls.


Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

We aggregate key quotes from earnings, The Transcript

The Transcript

We aggregate key quotes from earnings

Aggregate Key Quotes from Earnings

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of the hardest-hit industries' activity is beginning to tick back up above 2019 levels. Along with that boom, there are clear signs of inflation and concerns about overheating. Even Janet Yellen seemed concerned for a few hours last week.

As the broad market takes a breather, the weight of the evidence continues to support our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. As long as there are no significant negative market developments, a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Transportation: Hotels &amp; Resorts, Large/Mid-Cap, Hospitals, and Vehicle Rentals/Leasing.

As the broad market takes a breather, the weight of the evidence continues to support our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based advance. As long as there are no significant negative market developments, a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Health Care, and Transportation: Hotels &amp; Resorts, Large/Mid-Cap, Hospitals, and Vehicle Rentals/Leasing.

Asia consumer research, Investory

Shilpa Krishnan

Asia consumer research

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mahindra Holidays & Resorts / Equity Bottom-Up

Does a good product make for a great stock or a lousy one? I won’t buy a stock for its product alone, but I will definitely personally vouch for the holiday product of Club Mahindra. This is the company that has managed to convince over 222,000 Indian families that they deserve a break from their hard work, 7 days a year, and pampers them at its resorts with great locations, spacious rooms, a smorgasbord of treats at the restaurant, spa, club facilities and the works. My non-Indian friends own timeshares at Marriott Vacations (VAC US) and Hilton Grand (HGV US). The comparisons intrigued me. MHRL’s member numbers are just 10-15% lower than those of its overseas peers, and with 50 resorts MHRL is comparable to HGV. But HGV has 2x MHRL’s room-inventory, 5x its revenues, 10x its profit, and 5x the market capitalization. Read on for why I think MHRL is not just another case of overestimating the discretionary consumption power of the Indian middle class.

Does a good product make for a great stock or a lousy one? I won’t buy a stock for its product alone, but I will definitely personally vouch for the holiday product of Club Mahindra. This is the company that has managed to convince over 222,000 Indian families that they deserve a break from their hard work, 7 days a year, and pampers them at its resorts with great locations, spacious rooms, a smorgasbord of treats at the restaurant, spa, club facilities and the works. My non-Indian friends own timeshares at Marriott Vacations (VAC US) and Hilton Grand (HGV US). The comparisons intrigued me. MHRL’s member numbers are just 10-15% lower than those of its overseas peers, and with 50 resorts MHRL is comparable to HGV. But HGV has 2x MHRL’s room-inventory, 5x its revenues, 10x its profit, and 5x the market capitalization. Read on for why I think MHRL is not just another case of overestimating the discretionary consumption power of the Indian middle class.

How Do You Make Money When (Others Are) On Vacation

United States

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a worldwide developer, marketer, seller and manager of vacation ownership resorts and vacation club, destination club and exchange programs, principally under the "Marriott" and "Ritz-Carlton" brands and trademarks, which we license from Marriott International and Ritz-Carlton.

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Marriott Vacations World (VAC US)

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight; Overweight Mid/Small-Caps

Continue to Ride the Trend Higher; Upgrading Discretionary to Overweight $XLY $RSPD $XRT; Overweight Mid- & Small-Caps $IWM $IJR $IJH. Latest "Buy...

Vermilion Research

Risk Appetites Improving; Buying Cyclicals (Hotels/Resorts/Casinos, Metals/Mining)

We are seeing encouraging signals that indicate improving risk appetites, including improvement within the Discretionary, Transports, and Materials...

Vermilion Research

The Transcript 05.10.21: Pent-up Demand

The economy is booming and everyone should enjoy it. The American economy is benefitting from tremendous amounts of pent-up demand and in some of...

The Transcript

U.S. Equity Strategy: Taking a Breather

As the broad market takes a breather, the weight of the evidence continues to support our belief that we are in the early stages of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

How Do You Make Money When (Others Are) On Vacation

Does a good product make for a great stock or a lousy one? I won’t buy a stock for its product alone, but I will definitely personally vouch for...

Shilpa Krishnan

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