Equity analyst UK & Europe, UK Long Short

Peter Toeman

Equity analyst UK & Europe

Accelerating Tomorrow’s Independent Research

Boost Research

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium
 In contrast with the lackluster performance of the stockmarket, nominal GDP of the UK economy almost doubled over the period
Relative to the domestic economy FTSE 100 looks marginally undervalued which may explain the rebound seen in the first month of this year
On the other hand, courtesy of the political decision to leave the European Union, the outlook has never been more uncertain
Major structural change involving tearing up a 40 year arrangement with the UK's largest trading partner is bound to have significant and unpredictable consequences 
We offer a long/short portfolio of UK stocks designed to exploit emerging themes 

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Capital Markets

Crystal International / Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25979" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25979:1">Crystal International Group (2232 HK)</a> is raising about US$525m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be mainly used to expand its current manufacturing capacity, upstream vertical expansion, and paying down debt that was used to fund a recent acquisition.In this insight, we will briefly look at the apparel manufacturing industry, the company's operating margins compared to Hong Kong-listed peers, and its relative valuation. As usual, we will be running the deal through our ECM framework.

Crystal International Group (2232 HK) is raising about US$525m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be mainly used to expand its current manufacturing capacity, upstream vertical expansion, and paying down debt that was used to fund a recent acquisition.In this insight, we will briefly look at the apparel manufacturing industry, the company's operating margins compared to Hong Kong-listed peers, and its relative valuation. As usual, we will be running the deal through our ECM framework.

Crystal Grp IPO Review - Good Underlying Growth Bolstered by New Margin-Accretive Sportswear Segment

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK inflation in May was about 0.2pp stronger than expected, as the trend higher continued, taking the CPI and RPI rates to 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Fuel and airfares weighed as expected, but surprises were unusually skewed to the upside.</li><li>Recreation prices were the biggest source of surprise. My conservative assumption that its weakness in April was not just seasonal proved incorrect. In addition to the ripple effect of a later Easter, the warm weather may have raised prices.</li><li>Clothing was surprisingly strong again. Inflation in this sector continues to run ahead of pipeline pressures. Warm weather might be reducing the breadth of discounts, thereby raising average prices, although consumers are still chasing deals. Furniture price strength looks like a clearer pass-through story.</li><li>Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has increased by about 0.1pp to 3.1%. Before achieving that, petrol price base effects in June still look set to trigger a temporary inflation dip.</li></ul>

UK inflation in May was about 0.2pp stronger than expected, as the trend higher continued, taking the CPI and RPI rates to 2.9% and 3.7% respectively. Fuel and airfares weighed as expected, but surprises were unusually skewed to the upside.Recreation prices were the biggest source of surprise. My conservative assumption that its weakness in April was not just seasonal proved incorrect. In addition to the ripple effect of a later Easter, the warm weather may have raised prices.Clothing was surprisingly strong again. Inflation in this sector continues to run ahead of pipeline pressures. Warm weather might be reducing the breadth of discounts, thereby raising average prices, although consumers are still chasing deals. Furniture price strength looks like a clearer pass-through story.Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has increased by about 0.1pp to 3.1%. Before achieving that, petrol price base effects in June still look set to trigger a temporary inflation dip.

<ul><li>UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.</li><li>Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.</li><li>A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. </li><li>Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.</li></ul>

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak

Asia Ex-J Consumer/ Transport analyst

Valerie Law, CFA

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. <blockquote>But first, a note of thanks to the SK community</blockquote>Besides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!<h2>Table showing IPO deals covered</h2><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td>IPO</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>…

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that didn't work for me. But first, a note of thanks to the SK communityBesides doing an update, it is also an opportunity to thank everyone here at Smartkarma for your wonderful support (especially the Data Desk team) and collaborative work with fellow insight providers. Looking forward to a stellar year ahead together!Table showing IPO deals covered

IPO

…

United Kingdom

Marks & Spencer Group PLC is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides retail of clothing, food and home products.

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Marks & Spencer (MKS LN)

FTSE 100: Twenty Years of Going Nowhere (Almost)

The UK's principal share index FTSE 100 closed 2018 marginally lower than its level at the start of the Millenium In contrast with the lackluster...

Boost Research

Crystal Grp IPO Review - Good Underlying Growth Bolstered by New Margin-Accretive Sportswear Segment

Crystal International Group (2232 HK) is raising about US$525m in its upcoming IPO. Proceeds will be mainly used to expand its current...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

UK Inflation: Stretched Trend

UK inflation in May was about 0.2pp stronger than expected, as the trend higher continued, taking the CPI and RPI rates to 2.9% and 3.7%...

Phil Rush

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were...

Phil Rush

A Summary of Stock Calls and Actions

It has been slightly over half a year since I joined this community, so here is a brief summary of stock calls that worked and stock calls that...

Valerie Law, CFA

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