Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Wrap: Policymakers Preparing for Lift Off

UK Inflation: Subdued Enough to Buy the BoE Time

UK Inflation: Spring Break in Still Rising Trend

Preview: UK Inflation's Resurgence in April

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.</li><li>Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.</li><li>A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. </li><li>Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.</li></ul>

UK inflation in April was 0.1pp stronger than expected, with 0.4pp increases in the CPI and RPI rates to 2.7% and 3.5% respectively. Airfares were the biggest source of the surge, but not the surprise.Vehicle excise duty reforms added 8bp in a price level shock. Clothing was the largest sectoral surprise in my forecast, but with discount shares small, payback looks likely. Probable positive payback in games prices in May provides an offset.A cap on prepayment energy tariffs appears to be binding inflation in utilities. Cuts to social housing rents seem to be having an especially long-lasting effect too, with this effect knocking 7bp off annual inflation for another 35 months. Altogether, the peak in my CPI inflation forecast has fallen by about 0.2pp over the past month to 3.0%. RPI inflation is also influenced by all these shocks, plus weak house prices, which frontload some of that weakness from my forecast.

UK Inflation: Resurgent Toward a Lower Peak