Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are currently 46  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagoya-railroad-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8652:1" rel="noopener">Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP)</a> buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitetsu-transport-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1475:1" rel="noopener">Meitetsu Transport (9077 JP)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy (2433 JP)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soldout-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35570:1" rel="noopener">SoldOut (6553 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-o-data-device-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13393:1" rel="noopener">I O Data Device (6916 JP)</a>'s MBO. </li>
<li>Key updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/senex-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18390:1" rel="noopener">Senex Energy (SXY AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinsei-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16897:1" rel="noopener">Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mesco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16253:1" rel="noopener">Mesco Inc (1737 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/singapore-press-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9952:1" rel="noopener">Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are currently 46  - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals this week: Nagoya Railroad (9048 JP) buying Meitetsu Transport (9077 JP); Hakuhodo Dy (2433 JP)'s Offer for SoldOut (6553 JP), I O Data Device (6916 JP)'s MBO. 
Key updates took place for: Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP), Senex Energy (SXY AU), Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), Mesco Inc (1737 JP), Singapore Press Holdings (SPH SP).


Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Mapletree, Senex, Shinsei Bank, Mesco, Singapore Press Holdings

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

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 <img src='https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2022-02/Capture_0.PNG' alt='Singapore office assets' />
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 <div class='content-caption'>Singapore office assets</div>
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According to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), office rental prices in Q4 2021 have improved by 0.9 per cent quarter on quarter. The improvement in Q4 2021 comes after a decline of 3.5 per cent in the previous quarter. On a year-on-year basis, office rents have improved by 1.9 per cent in 2021, after dipping over 8.5 per cent in 2020.

Office vacancy rates have also shown a slight improvement in the latest Q4 2021 at 12.8 per cent. 
Listed in Singapore are five S-REITs with significant exposure to local office assets: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), Suntec REIT, Keppel REIT, and OUE Commercial REIT. Three have reported full year 2021 results. 
CICT is a diversified S-Reit which has 36.8 per cent of its portfolio value in office-related assets with a majority located in Singapore. It reported a full-year 2021 gross revenue exceeding S$1.3 billion and net property income of over S$951 million from its enlarged portfolio since the merger of CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust in 2020.

CICT's office portfolio has seen average office rentals improve 2.6 per cent quarter on quarter to S$10.33 psf on Dec 31, 2021 and improving from S$10.27 psf on Dec 31, 2020. The Reit's office occupancy rate stands at 91.5 per cent and it notes that the gap between committed rents and expired rents is expected to narrow as office market rentals look to improve.

CICT's major new leases and renewals completed in Q4 2021 and January 2022 included GIC, Mabanaft and Satellite (International) Singapore, and the Reit aims to continue to backfill vacancy in the portfolio as well as manage leases expiring in 2022. 
Suntec Reit has 82.2 per cent of its diversified portfolio in the office sector. It reported a full year 2021 gross revenue of over S$358 million, increasing 13.5 per cent year on year, and a net property income of over S$254 million, expanding 27.4 per cent year on year.

Suntec Reit's 3 Singapore office properties - Suntec City Office, One Raffles Quay, and MBFC Towers 1 and 2 - have an overall occupancy rate of 97.5 per cent, improving from 97.0 per cent the year before and exceeding that of Singapore's Core CBD occupancy rate of 93.3 per cent. Rent reversions grew 3.2 per cent in 2021 and its top 3 new tenants in 2021 include sectors from technology, media and telecommunications, banking, insurance and financial services, and manufacturing &amp; distribution.

Suntec Reit expects the outlook for its Singapore office portfolio to improve in tandem with economic recovery and income contribution to increase driven by cumulative positive rent reversions achieved in the past 14 quarters. However, the Reit notes that high expiry rents may result in weak positive rent reversion.

Keppel Reit is a pure-play office S-Reit with 78.4 per cent of its portfolio in Singapore office assets. It declared full year net property income of over S$172 million, increasing 27.3 per cent year on year and driven by acquisitions of Keppel Bay Tower in Singapore and Blue &amp; William in North Sydney and divestment of 275 George Street in Brisbane.

Keppel Reit has an occupancy rate of 95.4 per cent and its tenant retention rate was 62 per cent for FY2021.

OUE Commercial Reit is due to report second half and financial year ended Dec 31, 2021 after trading hours on Feb 16, 2022.  REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times,<a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/keppel-groups-s-reits-average-36-dpu-growth-for-fy2021"> </a><a href="https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/s-reits-with-singapore-office-assets-sanguine-on-rental-outlook">read </a>the original version.
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    Singapore office assets


According to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), office rental prices in Q4 2021 have improved by 0.9 per cent quarter on quarter. The improvement in Q4 2021 comes after a decline of 3.5 per cent in the previous quarter. On a year-on-year basis, office rents have improved by 1.9 per cent in 2021, after dipping over 8.5 per cent in 2020.

Office vacancy rates have also shown a slight improvement in the latest Q4 2021 at 12.8 per cent.  
Listed in Singapore are five S-REITs with significant exposure to local office assets: CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT), Suntec REIT, Keppel REIT, and OUE Commercial REIT. Three have reported full year 2021 results.  
CICT is a diversified S-Reit which has 36.8 per cent of its portfolio value in office-related assets with a majority located in Singapore. It reported a full-year 2021 gross revenue exceeding S$1.3 billion and net property income of over S$951 million from its enlarged portfolio since the merger of CapitaLand Mall Trust and CapitaLand Commercial Trust in 2020.

CICT's office portfolio has seen average office rentals improve 2.6 per cent quarter on quarter to S$10.33 psf on Dec 31, 2021 and improving from S$10.27 psf on Dec 31, 2020. The Reit's office occupancy rate stands at 91.5 per cent and it notes that the gap between committed rents and expired rents is expected to narrow as office market rentals look to improve.

CICT's major new leases and renewals completed in Q4 2021 and January 2022 included GIC, Mabanaft and Satellite (International) Singapore, and the Reit aims to continue to backfill vacancy in the portfolio as well as manage leases expiring in 2022.  
Suntec Reit has 82.2 per cent of its diversified portfolio in the office sector. It reported a full year 2021 gross revenue of over S$358 million, increasing 13.5 per cent year on year, and a net property income of over S$254 million, expanding 27.4 per cent year on year.

Suntec Reit's 3 Singapore office properties - Suntec City Office, One Raffles Quay, and MBFC Towers 1 and 2 - have an overall occupancy rate of 97.5 per cent, improving from 97.0 per cent the year before and exceeding that of Singapore's Core CBD occupancy rate of 93.3 per cent. Rent reversions grew 3.2 per cent in 2021 and its top 3 new tenants in 2021 include sectors from technology, media and telecommunications, banking, insurance and financial services, and manufacturing &amp; distribution.

Suntec Reit expects the outlook for its Singapore office portfolio to improve in tandem with economic recovery and income contribution to increase driven by cumulative positive rent reversions achieved in the past 14 quarters. However, the Reit notes that high expiry rents may result in weak positive rent reversion.

Keppel Reit is a pure-play office S-Reit with 78.4 per cent of its portfolio in Singapore office assets. It declared full year net property income of over S$172 million, increasing 27.3 per cent year on year and driven by acquisitions of Keppel Bay Tower in Singapore and Blue &amp; William in North Sydney and divestment of 275 George Street in Brisbane.

Keppel Reit has an occupancy rate of 95.4 per cent and its tenant retention rate was 62 per cent for FY2021.

OUE Commercial Reit is due to report second half and financial year ended Dec 31, 2021 after trading hours on Feb 16, 2022.   REIT Watch is a weekly column on The Business Times, read the original version.



REIT Watch - S-Reits with Singapore office assets sanguine on rental outlook

Travis Lundy

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Then-Underperforming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:106:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mapletree-north-asia-commercial-trust" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5127:1" rel="noopener">Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP)</a> announced a merger on the last day of 2021. Then it underperformed some more.</li>
<li>The price uplift for MAGIC unitholders was lost. FYQ3 Earnings announced in late January were good for both (better for MNACT), but MCT is still underperforming the sector.</li>
<li>That seems to set MCT buyers up for a Heads I Win Tails I Win scenario.</li>
</ul>


Then-Underperforming Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) and Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust (MAGIC SP) announced a merger on the last day of 2021. Then it underperformed some more.
The price uplift for MAGIC unitholders was lost. FYQ3 Earnings announced in late January were good for both (better for MNACT), but MCT is still underperforming the sector.
That seems to set MCT buyers up for a Heads I Win Tails I Win scenario.


Mapletree Commercial Trust - Heads I Win Tails I Win?

<ul>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-east-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:341:1" rel="noopener">Bank of East Asia (23 HK)</a>is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a> selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. </li>
</ul>


If BHP Group (BHP AU) announces an off-market buyback, there will be demand to replace the shares bought back, re-based higher.

Bank of East Asia (23 HK)is trading cheap as Elliott throws in the towel.
The Sydney Airport (SYD AU) selldown could be larger than people expect, and it is a decent chance to put on the arb trade. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

<ul>
<li>There are currently 46 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Three new deals were discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/charter-hall-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5593:1" rel="noopener">Charter Hall (CHC AU)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irongate-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30897:1" rel="noopener">Irongate (IAP AU)</a>; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daifuku-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10408:1" rel="noopener">Daifuku (6383 JP)</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contec-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16711:1" rel="noopener">Contec Co (6639 JP)</a>; Hinode for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/at-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4391:1" rel="noopener">At Group Co (8293 JP)</a>.
</li>
<li>Keys updates took place for: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/virtus-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14776:1" rel="noopener">Virtus Health (VRT AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/icar-asia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17682:1" rel="noopener">iCar Asia (ICQ AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aventus-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25897:1" rel="noopener">Aventus Group (AVN AU)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sydney-airport" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19063:1" rel="noopener">Sydney Airport (SYD AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-logistics-property-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22799:1" rel="noopener">China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK)</a> 
</li>
</ul>


There are currently 46 - mostly firm - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Three new deals were discussed this week: Charter Hall (CHC AU) for Irongate (IAP AU); Daifuku (6383 JP) for Contec Co (6639 JP); Hinode for At Group Co (8293 JP).

Keys updates took place for: Virtus Health (VRT AU), iCar Asia (ICQ AU), Aventus Group (AVN AU),Sydney Airport (SYD AU), and China Logistics Property Holdings (1589 HK) 



Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Irongate, Virtus, ICar Asia, Aventus, Sydney Airport, CLPH

Singapore

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust is a Singapore-focused real estate investment trust. The Trust invests on a long-term basis, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing real estate used primarily for office and/or retail purposes, whether wholly or partially, as well as real estate-related assets.

Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MCT SP)

Price Gauge
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Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MCT SP)

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Mapletree, Senex, Shinsei Bank, Mesco, Singapore Press Holdings

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

REIT Watch - S-Reits with Singapore office assets sanguine on rental outlook

According to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), office rental prices in Q4 2021 have improved by 0.9 per cent...

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Mapletree Commercial Trust - Heads I Win Tails I Win?

Mapletree Commercial Trust has underperformed - first as a retail property REIT suffering from a lack of tourism, second from possible deal...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: BHP, Bank Of East Asia, Sydney Airport, Boral

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Summary: Irongate, Virtus, ICar Asia, Aventus, Sydney Airport, CLPH

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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