Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

*Not So Stable: According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), gross NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad as originally believed. In addition, the RBI retains its cautious outlook on MSME credit risk; and
* Rose Colored Glasses: As we have highlighted in numerous individual Indian bank notes, credit quality continued to deteriorate at an accelerated pace prior to the second wave of COVID-19. While many financials are already considered technically insolvent, the reality is that there has been absolutely no let up in the breakdown of credit quality.

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

*Extending The Emergency Funding Plan: The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for Indian SMEs was launched in May 2020 under the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar’ or self-sufficiency package in order to help offset the weakened economic conditions resultant of COVID-19. ECGLS was subsequently expanded in November 2020 to include 26 additional stressed sectors. In its latest attempt at forbearance, the Indian government just expanded its ECLGS from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn; and *Kick That Can: Banks have already on-lent INR 2.7 tn under the ECLGS, and this recent announcement should further allow India to kick the can of stressed loans down the road. We remind the Indian government that if you’re extending, you are pretending.  That said, net new NPL growth should still accelerate through FYE 2022 given what appears to government crisis mismanagement which should extend the duration of the second COVID-19.

*Extending The Emergency Funding Plan: The Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS) for Indian SMEs was launched in May 2020 under the Indian government’s ‘Atmanirbhar’ or self-sufficiency package in order to help offset the weakened economic conditions resultant of COVID-19. ECGLS was subsequently expanded in November 2020 to include 26 additional stressed sectors. In its latest attempt at forbearance, the Indian government just expanded its ECLGS from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn; and *Kick That Can: Banks have already on-lent INR 2.7 tn under the ECLGS, and this recent announcement should further allow India to kick the can of stressed loans down the road. We remind the Indian government that if you’re extending, you are pretending.  That said, net new NPL growth should still accelerate through FYE 2022 given what appears to government crisis mismanagement which should extend the duration of the second COVID-19.

*New Regulation, New Loopholes: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has finalized rules for non-bank financial company (NBFC) dividend payout ratios at a maximum of 50%. The methodology is predicated on the net NPL ratio and CAR. The new proposal is riddled with loopholes, as NBFCs can easily manipulate these ratios; and*Well-Placed NBFCs: Excluding LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) and Shriram Transport (SHTF.IN), most large NBFCs are well placed to meet the proposed dividend cap if the guidelines are made applicable from the previous year.

*New Regulation, New Loopholes: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has finalized rules for non-bank financial company (NBFC) dividend payout ratios at a maximum of 50%. The methodology is predicated on the net NPL ratio and CAR. The new proposal is riddled with loopholes, as NBFCs can easily manipulate these ratios; and*Well-Placed NBFCs: Excluding LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) and Shriram Transport (SHTF.IN), most large NBFCs are well placed to meet the proposed dividend cap if the guidelines are made applicable from the previous year.

Reserve Bank of India – Wrong Rule At Wrong Time

Equity Bottom-Up

*Results Down, Credibility Continues To Increase: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 4Q21 bottom-line results of 4.0 bn, declining INR 3.5 bn (45.0%) linked quarter. Results were weaker primarily due to a massive loss provision increase of INR 7.9 bn (4.2x) over the period reflecting an increase of 16% in Stage 3 loans; and*Negative Credit Delta: Despite recoveries of INR 400 mn, net new NPLs at LIC skyrocketed to INR 12.6 bn or increasing 62.0% on an annualized basis during the period – quite the change from annualized net new NPL decline of 3.2% in FY 3Q21. By our calculation, if the large blip in credit continues, LIC management ought to think about adding another INR 22 bn to the reserve.

 *Results Down, Credibility Continues To Increase: LIC Housing Finance (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 4Q21 bottom-line results of 4.0 bn, declining INR 3.5 bn (45.0%) linked quarter. Results were weaker primarily due to a massive loss provision increase of INR 7.9 bn (4.2x) over the period reflecting an increase of 16% in Stage 3 loans; and*Negative Credit Delta: Despite recoveries of INR 400 mn, net new NPLs at LIC skyrocketed to INR 12.6 bn or increasing 62.0% on an annualized basis during the period – quite the change from annualized net new NPL decline of 3.2% in FY 3Q21. By our calculation, if the large blip in credit continues, LIC management ought to think about adding another INR 22 bn to the reserve. 

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Compared to our expectation of 3% QoQ decline, the gold loan book declined 6% QoQ. All the other segments delivered sequential loan book growth the most prominent being the MFI segment with 11% growth....<div class="content-highlight">Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</div>

Compared to our expectation of 3% QoQ decline, the gold loan book declined 6% QoQ. All the other segments delivered sequential loan book growth the most prominent being the MFI segment with 11% growth....Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Gold loan book moderates; MFI performance healthy

India

Manappuram Finance Ltd. is a non-banking finance company. The Company offers loans against gold collateral, business loans, vehicle loans, foreign exchange and money transfer services; and sells gold coins.

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Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN)

Reserve Bank Of India – FSR Is Very Unrealistic

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: According to the RBI, NPLS are not anticipated to be as bad. This couldn't be further from the truth. NPLs continue to...

Thomas J. Monaco

India Financials – Plop Plop Fizz Fizz

INDIA FINANCIALS: ECLGS was launched in May 2020 to offset poor economic conditions. ECGLS has again been expanded from INR 3 tn to INR 4.5 tn....

Thomas J. Monaco

Reserve Bank of India – Wrong Rule At Wrong Time

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA: The RBI has finalized rules for NBFC dividend payout ratios at 50% - predicated on the net NPL ratio and CAR. The new...

Thomas J. Monaco

LIC Housing Finance – Hit With A Brick

LIC HOUSING FINANCE: LIC reported a poor FY 4Q21 bottom-line, declining 45.0% linked quarter due to a massive loss provision reflecting a 16%...

Thomas J. Monaco

Gold loan book moderates; MFI performance healthy

Compared to our expectation of 3% QoQ decline, the gold loan book declined 6% QoQ. All the other segments delivered sequential loan book growth ...

Motilal Oswal

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